Multiple skier triggered avalanches were reported in South Central Montana.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.
Multiple skier triggered avalanches were reported in South Central Montana.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 12, 9:30 PM MST, 2 hours 30 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 930 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2015 Updated Aviation Discussion .UPDATED... Update forthcoming. Have adjusted hourly temperatures again to better define the trend. Made no other significant changes to current forecast. Fog likely to return to portions of North Central Montana again overnight as low levels of the atmosphere remain moist. Models hint at diffluence aloft over southwest Montana after midnight and have gone with low pops that area for possible snow showers. HRRR analysis also showing some precipitation over the southwest after midnight. && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0530Z. Relatively weak flow aloft and at the surface persists over the region into Tuesday morning. Broken mid-level cloud deck S of a line from roughly KHLN to KLWT will gradually shift SE overnight with clearing skies at SW MT terminals after midnight. Low levels remain fairly moist/stagnant across most of Central/SW MT for potential fog development or persistence through most of tonight. Hoenisch && .PREV DISCUSSION...Issued 256 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2015 Monday through Wednesday...Clearing skies as the upper level ridge begins to move into the area, however biggest problem is going to be temperatures and fog formation tonight across much of Central and North Central Montana. Have added patchy fog to area for the plains of Central and North Central Montana. Temperatures are also going to be an issue for much of the overnight period tonight. Models consistently have significantly high forecast temperatures overnight, however they also had significantly warmer temperatures for today's highs when the low level inversion was going to break(which has not happened). Have gone with a modified persistence/RUC13 forecast solution that seems to capture the low level cold air well. However if winds mix out the planetary boundary layer in the next few hours, temperatures could climb dramatically. With nighttime cooling at the surface though the inversion will strengthen again and the odds of mixing out the cold air near the surface will be dramatically less. The same pattern should play out for Tuesday and Wednesday...however it should become increasing likely that the inversion will break with each passing day, and once it does temperatures should be similar to the warm weather being experienced across much of Southwest Montana. Suk Wednesday Night through Monday...The upper-level ridge of high pressure will break down Wednesday night and Thursday and be replaced with an active Pacific weather pattern for the remainder of the forecast period. Moist westerly flow aloft coupled with progressive shortwaves will lead to enhanced precipitation over the mountains along the Continental Divide, windy conditions along and areas adjacent to the Rocky Mountain Front, drier and milder conditions over the plains. Long-range forecast models continue to highlight differences in the timing of each shortwave as well as precipitation coverage/amounts, however forecast confidence in the overall pattern change continues to increase. Have kept temperatures slightly above seasonal averages Thursday through Saturday and then around seasonal averages for the latter half of the weekend into early next week. Though the best precipitation chances will be in the mountains where PoPs were increased to likely, mainly dry conditions are expected over the plains through Friday. Beginning Friday night, have increased PoPs to slight chance for lower elevations as a series of stronger weather systems is expected to bring a chance for rain and snow. As mentioned prior, forecast confidence is low regarding precipitation coverage and amounts for lower elevations and moderate for accumulating mountain snow. Windy conditions, perhaps high winds 58 mph or greater along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains are also possible at times through the forecast period. MLV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF -2 33 19 38 / 10 0 0 0 CTB -2 31 17 34 / 0 0 10 0 HLN 15 29 14 30 / 20 10 10 10 BZN 16 28 8 29 / 10 20 10 0 WEY 10 29 2 28 / 30 20 10 0 DLN 21 32 15 33 / 20 20 10 0 HVR -12 25 13 30 / 0 0 0 10 LWT 6 33 16 42 / 10 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && weather.gov/greatfalls www.twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls www.facebook.com/NWSGreatFalls
1 avalanche. Local standard time, as filed.
Two avalanches were reported:|1/13/2015 Northern Bridgers - Frazier - skier triggered, not caught.
1/14/2015 Northern Gallatin Range - Elephant - skier triggered, not caught.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Montana in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, January 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 552788.