A deep moist southerly flow aloft continued for an extended period across the Southern Appalachian region March 4th and 5th. Problems ensued as this warm and humid air mass was undercut by an arctic intrusion throughout the day on March 5th.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MRX wrote it up.
A deep moist southerly flow aloft continued for an extended period across the Southern Appalachian region March 4th and 5th. Problems ensued as this warm and humid air mass was undercut by an arctic intrusion throughout the day on March 5th. Lift was enhanced by a wave of low pressure riding northeast from the Deep South across the Southern Atlantic Coastal Plain. Considerable melting in the warm layer lead to a lengthy period of sleet and freezing rain until later in the day when the cold air was deep enough for the precipitation to fall entirely in the form of snow. Ice accumulation was greatest across the Cumberland Plateau and Southwest Virginia. Several inches of snow fell in the higher terrain across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee following the ice storm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Morristown, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 4, 3:21 PM EST, 39 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET
WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE
PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND
PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE
TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND
ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION
LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW
POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION
TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER
AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY
TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER
SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS
TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS
LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY
MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST
MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E
AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST
AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE
COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN
THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 21 42 / 90 100 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 35 16 38 / 90 100 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 30 33 16 38 / 90 100 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 35 12 34 / 90 100 10 10
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-
JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-
NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST
MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR
ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-
JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-
NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST
MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL-
CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM
CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-
WASHINGTON-WISE.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-
RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
&&
SON/AMPHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 110 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002- 005-006-008-051815- CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS- SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE- SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER- SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE- WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON- 110 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. ALSO THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF RIVER FLOODING DUE TO PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL COMBINED WITH A SATURATED SOIL FROM RECENT SNOW MELT ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST VA AND THE EAST TN MOUNTAINS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. PLEASE SEE THE WINTER STORM WATCH...AND WARNING PRODUCTS FOR MORE DETAILS. BEHIND THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WILL BE VERY HELPFUL.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1045 AM EST WED MAR 04 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1030 AM FLOOD WISE 36.98N 82.58W
03/04/2015 WISE VA LAW ENFORCEMENT
FOUR ROADS IMPASSABLE ACROSS COUNTY.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1245 PM EST WED MAR 04 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1245 PM FLOOD LEBANON 36.90N 82.08W
03/04/2015 RUSSELL VA EMERGENCY MNGR
FIVE ROADS CLOSED FROM WATER ON ROAD
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
One quarter inch of ice accumulated on surfaces during the ice storm at Jellico.
One quarter inch of ice accumulation was reported three miles southwest of Harriman during the ice storm.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, March 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 554898, 554899.