Winter Weather in Tennessee, February 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1203 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WINTER STORM TAKING SHAPE FROM EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS STRENGTHENING SOUTH OF LA THIS MORNING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL INTERACT WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
PRECIPITATION WAS EDGING NORTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH
MS THIS MORNING. HAVE BEEN RECEIVING REPORTS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WITH A LITTLE SNOW. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR FOR THE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTH MS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW...MOSTLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH OF SLEET AND LESS THAN 1/10 INCH OF FREEZING RAIN. COLDER
AIR ALOFT IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MODERATE SNOW AT
LITTLE ROCK AND PINE BLUFF IN ARKANSAS. THREE TO SIX INCHES OF
SNOW STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA...FROM
EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH MS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN
NEAR THE TN RIVER...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AS YOU GO SOUTH. THE
HRRR AND NAM INDICATE THAT THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR WHERE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT WILL BE RIGHT ON THE FRINGE
OF THE SNOW...THINK SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA WILL BE AROUND AN
INCH ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A STRETCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. CANCELLED
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TIPTON COUNTY TN AND CROSS COUNTY
AR.

LOWERED POPS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AND ALSO
RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON A LITTLE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-40. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CUT DOWN ON
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR.

JCL

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AT KTUP...KMEM
AND KMKL IN THAT ORDER. PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT BRIEFLY AS
SLEET...PERHAPS EVEN SOME RAIN AT KTUP...BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
SNOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH AT KTUP/KMEM
TO RESULT IN LIFR CONDS FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KJBR
SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. CONDS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING.
RIGHT NOW HAVE KMKL AND KMEM SLATED TO RETURN TO VFR AROUND
26/06Z BUT THAT COULD EASILY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. KEPT LOW CLOUDS AT
KTUP THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
THROUGH THIS EVENT. LIGHT E/SE TODAY BECOMING LIGHT N/NW TONIGHT.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

AS OF 18Z...PRECIPITATION IS PREDOMINANTLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY BEGIN TO AFFECT MEM AND
PERHAPS MKL THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN AS A MIXTURE
OF SLEET/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS TEMPORARY
LIFR CONDITIONS AT MEM AND ESPECIALLY TUP AS PRECIPITATION
INCREASES. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS A
LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES EAST. LIGHT
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR LEE AR-
     PHILLIPS.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR
     CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-
     BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR HARDIN-
     MCNAIRY.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CHESTER-
     DECATUR-FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-SHELBY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-261945-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-
COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-
DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-
HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-
LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-
PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-
TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1144 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA. LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON UNTIL THE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO ALL SNOW.

LESSER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WINTER WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS ARE REQUESTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

JCL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
114 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1142 AM     SLEET            PARIS                   34.18N 89.47W
02/25/2015  E0.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SLEET AND SNOW BEGINNING TO COVER ROADS AROUND 1/10 INCH
            DEPTH.

1153 AM     HEAVY SLEET      OXFORD                  34.36N 89.53W
02/25/2015  E0.00 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HEAVY SLEET NOW.AT TIMES MIXED WITH SNOW. DEPTH
            APPROXIMATELY 1/10 INCH. FREEZING ON ROADS AND BRIDGES
            STARTING.

1231 PM     SLEET            AMORY                   33.99N 88.48W
02/25/2015  E0.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   PUBLIC

            SLEET LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH COVERING GRASS AND
            VEHICLES.

1245 PM     SNOW             S CHARLESTON            34.01N 90.06W
02/25/2015  E0.0 INCH        TALLAHATCHIE       MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SLEET CHANGED TO ALL SNOW.APPROX.DEPTH 1/4 INCH.

0106 PM     SLEET            GATTMAN                 33.89N 88.24W
02/25/2015  E0.00 INCH       MONROE             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            1/4 INCH DEPTH OF SLEET/SNOW MIXTURE.

0112 PM     SNOW             TUPELO                  34.26N 88.73W
02/25/2015  E1.0 INCH        LEE                MS   PUBLIC

            SLEET CHANGED TO ALL SNOW WITH TOTAL DEPTH NEARLY 1 INCH.

&&

MRM