Hail and Damaging Wind in South Dakota, June 1, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
527 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH ACTIVE SWRLY FLOW MOVING INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. A
SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES ACROSS PUSHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO
THE DAKOTAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP SRLY FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS EAST OF A SURFACE LOW DRIFTING ACROSS SE MT/NE WY. TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLIER ACROSS THE NE FTHLS ENHANCED BY AN UPPER WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH IS NOW DISSIPATING OVER SRN MEADE CNTY.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NCNTRL WY INTO NW SD THIS
AFTN AND EVNG AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH IS NOW CROSSING CNTRL WY.
PLENTY OF CAPE ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING
2500 TO 3000 J/KG. SHEAR HOWEVER ISNT AS IMPRESSIVE...EXCEPT WHERE A
BIT STRONGER OVER NE WY INTO NW SD WHICH IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE WRN SD PLAINS TONIGHT...WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE...THEN EXITING THE CWA OVERNIGHT.

SURFACE LOW WILL SLIDE INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TUESDAY MORNING WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE NW CWA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL REACH THE 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...EXCEPT MID
TO UPPER 70S OVER NW SD AND NE WY. BEST INSTABILITY WILL THUS BE
ACROSS THE SD PLAINS EAST OF THE BLKHLS. MLCAPE WILL REACH THE 2500
TO 3500 J/KG WITH THE HIGHER INSTABILITY OVER CNTRL SD. INSTABILITY
IS STILL EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BLKHLS
AREA...BUT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEAR THE BLKHLS. HAIL
AND WIND WILL AGAIN BE MAIN THREATS. STORMS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH
UPPER TROF ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

SCT TSRA THIS AFTN/EVNG ACRS NERN WY AND THE BLKHLS
AREA...WITH MVFR/LCL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PCPN. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-020900-
HARDING-PERKINS-BUTTE-NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-ZIEBACH-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-RAPID CITY-
SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-
CUSTER CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-HAAKON-FALL RIVER-SHANNON-
JACKSON-BENNETT-MELLETTE-TODD-TRIPP-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-
SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-WESTERN CROOK-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-WESTON-
NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL OVER NORTHWESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.

HIGH STREAM FLOWS WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME
CREEKS AND STREAMS IN THE BLACK HILLS AND THE ADJACENT PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER VARIOUS PARTS
OF THE AREA EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON TUESDAY THERE
IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH AN ENHANCED RISK OVER CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...WHICH MIGHT
AGGRAVATE FLOODING CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...
OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/RAPIDCITY

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