A cold front produced strong winds along the central Oregon coast.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
A cold front produced strong winds along the central Oregon coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 18, 9:14 PM PST, 5 hours 1 minute earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
914 PM PST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRES SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC WILL
APPROACH THE N OREGON COAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INLAND NEAR TILLAMOOK
EARLY THU MORNING. THIS WILL SPREAD ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE-TO-
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE REGION...WITH PRECIPITATION
STARTING AS SNOW INITIALLY FOR THE CASCADE PASSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL
RISE OVERNIGHT INTO THU MORNING. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATER THU
BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT. THEN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD DOWN OVER
THE INTERIOR PACIFIC NW FRI AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. EARLY NEXT WEEK COLDER WEATHER APPEARS ON THE
WAY AS A COLD LOW PRES SYSTEM DROPS DOWN FROM ALASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...AFTER A RELATIVE BREAK IN
THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...NWS DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS RAIN IS NOW
PICKING UP AGAIN OVER THE FCST AREA. THE RAIN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW PRES SYSTEM SPINNING UP ALONG A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE
DRAPED ALONG THE 45N LATITUDE LINE OFFSHORE. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS COMING FROM UPWARD MOTION NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A 140-150 KT JET CORE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN FROM 06Z TO 12Z OVERNIGHT AS THE LEADING WARM FRONT MOVES INTO
THE COAST. THE FCST MODELS ARE INDICATING A DEEP LAYER OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH ADDITIONAL FORCING FROM
SIGNIFICANT FRONTOGENESIS BEING ADVERTISED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...THERE WILL BE 40 TO 50 KT 850 MB
WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM...WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE BULLS EYE FOR RAINFALL
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON THE OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE...WHERE
SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. GIVEN THAT THIS IS A FAIRLY QUICK
HITTING SYSTEM AND THERE HAS BEEN A DECENT BREAK SINCE THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY...RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOW LEVELS
WILL START OUT BELOW THE HIGHER CASCADE PASSES...BEFORE RISING FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THU MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT.
EXPECT THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS FURTHER NORTH OVER THE S
WASHINGTON AND N OREGON CASCADES...WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THU MORNING. EXPECT THESE AREAS TO RECEIVE 6 T0 12
INCHES OF SNOW...WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE FCST MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN BRINGING THE SURFACE LOW ONSHORE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE N OREGON
COAST EARLY THU MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW CENTER WILL MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR TILLAMOOK BY AROUND 6 AM. THE MODELS DO NOT STRENGTHEN
THE LOW ALL THAT MUCH...BRINGING IT IN AS A 1011 TO 1013 MB LOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN PAST EXPERIENCE WITH THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM AND THE
FAVORABLE LOCATIONS OF THE LOW NEAR THE RIGHT JET ENTRANCE
REGION...THINK THAT IT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING. DECIDED TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL OREGON COAST AND COAST RANGE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MARGINAL
HIGH WIND EVENT IF IT VERIFIES...BUT EXPECT WE MAY SEE SOME
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTS TO 60 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL BEACHES AND
HEADLANDS AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COAST RANGE. ALSO ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF SALEM...WHERE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF
35 TO 40 MPH THU MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS NORTH OF
THE LOW PRES CENTER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ROUGHLY FROM
TILLAMOOK TO SALEM.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY
THU...EVENTUALLY CLEARING THE REGION BY THU EVENING. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER
THU...AS THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF POSTFRONTAL
INSTABILITY. THEN WE WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN THU
NIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE PAC NW. THE DRY PATTERN
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PYLE
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PRETTY MAJOR PATTERN CHANGE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME
DEGREE OF OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH
RESIDES ALONG THE COAST SAT NIGHT THEN WEAKENS SUN. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY LARGE MIN TEMP RANGE SAT NIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THINGS START TO GET INTERESTING MON AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES SOUTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND
GFS ARE SIMILAR IN THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH WASHINGTON MON WITH 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS VALUES LOWERING TO NEAR 530 DM ACROSS SW WA AND FAR NW
OREGON 00Z TUE. BOTH MODELS THEN SHOW A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR DIGGING INTO THE UPPER TROUGH MON NIGHT AND TUE. BY 00Z WED THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS THICKNESS VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 520S AND 850
MB TEMPS AROUND -6C OVER SW WA AND FAR NW OREGON. SHOULD THIS
VERIFY...SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE DOWN TO AT LEAST 1000 FT...IF NOT A
LITTLE LOWER. THE COLD PATTERN HOLDS THROUGH WED. THE ECMWF IS MUCH
SLOWER PUSHING THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS. IN
FACT...THE GFS SHOWS NELY FLOW ALOFT WED WITH COLD AIR STACKING UP
AGAINST THE S WA AND N OREGON CASCADES. GFS HAS 850 MB TEMPS OF -10C
TO -12C OVER THE S WA AND N OREGON CASCADE CREST 18Z WED. STILL TOO
EARLY TO TRY AND PIN DOWN THE FINER DETAILS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT WE MAY ENDURE A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK. WEISHAAR.
&&
.AVIATION...THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS SPREADING WARM
FRONTAL RAINS INTO SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL PEAK THE SECOND HALF OF TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
LOW CENTER OF AROUND 1010 TO 1012 MB WILL MOVE ONSHORE AROUND 12Z
NEAR TILLAMOOK AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF THE LOW WILL SEE BRISK
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS...WHILE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK LOOK
FOR STRONG SOUTH WINDS...GUSTS 50 TO 60 MPH NEAR THE COAST AND
OVER THE COAST RANGE AND 30 TO 40 MPH IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH
WILLAMETTE VALLEY. THINGS WILL SETTLE DOWN WITH DECREASING RAIN
AND WIND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR
CONDITIONS ON THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THURSDAY...
WITH VFR CONDITIONS INLAND LOWERING TO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO
MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN INCREASING RAIN...POSSIBLY STAYING
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. LOOK FOR WINDS TURNING TO EASTERLY
AROUND 06Z OR SO TONIGHT...PEAKING 10 TO 20 KT LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE DECREASING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PT
&&
.MARINE...WINDS ARE BACKING TO SOUTH AND WILL BE INCREASING AHEAD
OT THE NEXT WEST TO EAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS CENTER
IS FORECAST TO MOVE ONSHORE NEAR TILLAMOOK AROUND 4 OR 5 AM
THURSDAY. SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER LOOK FOR SOUTH WINDS INCREASING
TO 25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER WINDS
WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 OR 30 KT. THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE RAMPING UP BETWEEN NOW AND ABOUT MIDNIGHT THEN
CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. THE WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHERLY ONCE THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE EARLY THURSDAY AND THE GUSTS
WILL BE IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE INTO THURSDAY EVENING
THEN DECREASE. A THERMAL LOW WILL BUILD UP THE COAST FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR OFFSHORE FLOW AND
POSSIBLE GAP WINDS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COLUMBIA RIVER THAT COULD
GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SEAS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND 10 FT THIS EVENING. SEAS SOUTH OF
TILLAMOOK ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 12 TO 14 FT LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH...WITH 8 TO 10 FT NORTH
OF TILLAMOOK. SEAS WILL DROP BELOW 10 FT ALL WATERS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. PT
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY FOR
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM PST
THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL
OREGON COAST-COAST RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON
COAST.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 10 AM PST THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL
WILLAMETTE VALLEY-SOUTH WILLAMETTE VALLEY.
WA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH
WASHINGTON CASCADES.
PZ...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PST THURSDAY
FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE
HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA
TO CASCADE HEAD OR OUT 60 NM.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PST THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 9 PM PST
THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM CASCADE HEAD OR TO
FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL
1 AM PST THURSDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR FROM
8 AM TO NOON PST THURSDAY.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A weather station in Florence, OR measured 40 mph sustained winds.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609937.