Oregon, 2015

High Wind in Oregon, March 15, 2015

March 15, 2015 · NWS MFR · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

An incoming front brought high winds to portions of southern Oregon.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.

An incoming front brought high winds to portions of southern Oregon.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 3:50 AM PST, 3 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 15, 3:50 AM PST, 3 hours 23 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
450 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

.AVIATION...FOR THE 15/12Z TAF CYCLE...A BREAK IN THE RAIN HAS
ALLOWED PATCHY FOG WITH IFR CIGS/VIS TO FORM IN WEST SIDE VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED BECAUSE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH ALONG THE COAST. THIS
WILL WIPE OUT ANY LOW CLOUD AND FOG AND RETURN US TO AT LEAST
MVFR, BUT IT WILL ALSO BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TO MANY AREAS.
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF SURFACE WINDS, WE SHOULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL EASE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY AND A COLD FRONT
STARTS TO MOVE INLAND. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AT LEAST LIGHT
RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VIS TO ALL THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. -WRIGHT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM PDT SUN MAR 15 2015/

DISCUSSION...AS MY COLLEAGUE MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
FORECAST DISCUSSION...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
TODAY'S SURFACE LOW EVOLUTION OFF THE OREGON COAST. BUT THE FORECAST
IS STILL VERY DYNAMIC...WITH SOLUTIONS SIGNIFICANTLY CHANGING WITH
EACH RUN OF THE MODELS. ONE POSSIBILITY FOR THE NOTABLE RUN-TO-
RUN INCONSISTENCIES IS THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES BECAUSE
OF THE THREE UPSTREAM TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE WEST PACIFIC.

BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED DEEPENING AND NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF
TODAY'S LOW PRESSURE...A WIDESPREAD WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED.
PRECIPITATION WON'T BE AS SIGNIFICANT TODAY AS YESTERDAY IN TERMS
OF COVERAGE...BUT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN AT THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS INLAND AND SQUEEZES OUT THE LAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE THAT'S BEEN IN THE VICINITY FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS OR SO.

WINDS: WE'VE CONTINUED THE HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES AT
NPWMFR. THIS WIND EVENT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED BUT WILL PACK
A PUNCH. LATER THIS MORNING WINDS WILL REALLY START RAMPING UP ALONG
THE COAST...WITH 2000 FOOT WINDS REACHING 50KT. MODELS ARE SPEEDING
UP THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW CENTER...SO BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING AT THE COAST. INLAND...IN THE SISKIYOUS
AND SOUTHERN OREGON CASCADES...WE HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING
BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED 60KT+ SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 700MB...WHICH
USUALLY TRANSLATES TO STRONG WINDS AT THE SQUAW PEAK OBSERVATION
SITE AND RECREATION AREAS LIKE MOUNT ASHLAND. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
WEST SIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS TOO...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE
FLOW...SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...DOESN'T ALIGN VERY WELL WITH THE
SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ROGUE VALLEY ORIENTATION. SO WE DID NOT ISSUE
A WIND ADVISORY...BUT EXPECT GENERALLY GUSTY WINDS TODAY.

MOVING SOUTH INTO THE SHASTA VALLEY WHERE ORIENTATION OF UPPER WINDS
DOESN'T TYPICALLY PREVENT WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM BEING MET AS
LONG AS SUFFICIENT 700MB SOUTHWEST FLOW EXISTS...WE HAVE ISSUED A
WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS LOCATION.

ALL RECENT GUIDANCE POINTS TO AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES AS GETTING
THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE CWA...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WINDS FOR METAR SITES LIKE
ALTURAS...LAKEVIEW...AND KLAMATH FALLS. HIGH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
60MPH+ WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO HIGHWAY 31 NEAR THE SUMMER LAKE
AREA AND HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH. WINDS HERE SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING.

THE WEATHER PATTERN REALLY QUIETS DOWN FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK AHEAD. WEAK TROUGHS MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION KNOCKS ON
THE DOOR BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WE WONDER HOW MUCH CONFIDENCE WE
CAN HAVE IN THE TIMING OR STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND FRONT GIVEN RECENT
MODEL DIFFICULTIES. ONE NOTABLE DIFFERENCE ABOUT NEXT WEEKEND'S
SYSTEM COMPARED TO TODAY'S IS THE COLD AIR WITH SNOW LEVELS
POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 5000 FEET.

MARINE...UPDATED 2 AM PDT SUNDAY 15 MAR 2015...LOW PRESSURE IS
CURRENTLY FORMING NEAR 40N 130W AND THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN
AS IT MOVES NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT. AS IT MOVES OVER OUR WATERS
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SOUTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE SUDDENLY AND DRAMATICALLY. THE CURRENT GALE AND HAZ SEAS
WARNINGS LOOK GOOD, BUT LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A COASTAL JET
FORMING DOWNWIND OF CAPE BLANCO THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AND THE FACT THAT IT CONTINUES TO DEEPEN UNTIL IT'S WELL NORTH
OF US SUGGESTS THAT STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, AND WE'VE
ISSUED A STORM WARNING DOWNWIND OF THE CAPE. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE DRAMATICALLY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH AND WINDS
SWING AROUND TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT WARNINGS GO A LITTLE LONGER
THAN WE PROBABLY NEED, BUT I WANTED TO HAVE SOME WIGGLE ROOM. OF
COURSE, THESE WILL BE DROPPED AS SOON AS WARRANTED THIS EVENING.
-WRIGHT

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ORZ030-031-624-625.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ021-022-615-618-619.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM PDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ORZ028-620-621-623.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ORZ029.

CA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     CAZ084-085-284-285.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ081-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ356-376.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
     PZZ350-356-370-376.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, South Central Oregon Coast

When
March 15, 7:13 AM PST to 8:13 AM PST
Where
South Central Oregon Coast forecast zone
Measured
55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
42.979, -123.829 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Long Prairie RAWS reported a gust to 63 mph at 15/0813 PST.

High Wind, Central & Eastern Lake County

When
March 15, 9:38 AM PST to 1:44 PM PST
Where
Central & Eastern Lake County forecast zone
Measured
60 kt (69 mph) measured gust
Reported by
RAWS
Coordinates
42.793, -120.387 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Summer Lake RAWS reported a gust to 62 mph at 15/0938 PST. The Coffiee Pot Flat RAWS reported high winds gusts continuously from 15/0944 PST until 15/1344 PST. The peak gust was 69 mph, recorded at 15/1144 PST and 15/1244 PST.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, March 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 556121, 556122.