Coastal Flood in Oregon, December 10 to 11, 2015

Name: Coastal Flood in Oregon, December 10 to 11, 2015
Start: 2015-12-10T09:00
End: 2015-12-11T14:00
Location: Oregon

December 10 to 11, 2015 · NWS PQR · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

High rivers from heavy rain combined with large surf and extremely high tides resulted in coastal flooding for the North Oregon Coast.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $4.4 million
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.

High rivers from heavy rain combined with large surf and extremely high tides resulted in coastal flooding for the North Oregon Coast.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 10, 2:57 AM PST, 6 hours 3 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 10, 2:57 AM PST, 6 hours 3 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
257 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A FAST MOVING FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND MAY BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS.  A VERY WET
SYSTEM WILL CLIP THE REGION AS IT MOVES INTO SW OREGON AND NW CALIF
ON FRI. MORE RAIN ON SAT FOR THE REGION...THEN COOL UNSETTLED WEATHER
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SNOW LEVELS WILL SETTLE AT OR BELOW THE PASSES
IN THE CASCADES FOR LATE THU THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS
POTENTIAL CONVECTION AND ITS IMPACTS. AN EARLY INDICATOR OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE WAS A THUNDERSTORM IN THE EUGENE AREA AROUND
MIDNIGHT THAT CAUSED SOME POWER OUTAGES.  THE EUGENE AIRPORT HAD A
GUST TO 47 MPH AT THAT TIME.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

THE PARENT 970 MB LOW NEAR 47N 134W WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS NOW SWINGING NE ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS APPROACHING THE COAST . THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
IN EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THERE ARE ALREADY THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  NWS DOPPLER RADAR ON THE
SOUTH WA COAST SHOWS THERE IS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION NOT PICKED UP
BY MODELS DEVELOPING OFF THE CENTRAL WA COAST. THIS IS AN INDICATOR
OF POTENTIALLY STRONGER WIND FIELD THAN MODELS DEPICT.

MODELS INDICTATE STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WITH 850 TO 900 MB WINDS 50 TO 65 KT. FEEL THERE IS GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
FRONT THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ANY STRONG SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FOLLOW.  SO HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE COAST AND
COASTAL MOUNTAIN ZONES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.	INLAND AREAS WILL
PROBABLY NOT SEE WIDESPREAD HIGH WINDS BUT ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY DAMAGING WINDS. WITH
RECENT SOAKING RAINS BELIEVE TREES MAY BE PRONE TO BEING KNOCKED
DOWN.

MODELS ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE TRACK
OF A SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY. THE LOW IS CURRENTLY WELL WEST OF THE
WASHINGTON COAST AND WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW TOWARD
VANCOUVER ISLAND. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA...MAKING LANDFALL ON THE NORTH
OREGON COAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE LOW...WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY. HOWEVER WITH THE LOW
WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS THE LOCAL AREA...THE GRADIENT WILL BE LIMITED
SO HIGH WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS POINT...BUT MAY SEE
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY SYSTEM WILL BE MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE WHICH
WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS...BUT COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH RAIN FROM HEAVIER SHOWERS.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SATURDAY...BUT THEY ARE GENERALLY IN
AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVER EVENT WILL AIM ITSELF AT
OREGON ON SATURDAY. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN OREGON...BUT WILL CERTAINLY SEE SOME RAIN
LOCALLY...FAVORING LANE COUNTY. QPF LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE IMPRESSIVE
WITH PWAT JUST OFFSHORE AROUND 1.25 INCHES.  BOWEN /MH

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION.  THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. FOR SOME GOOD NEWS...THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE IN A
DRIER...OR MUCH LESS WET...PERIOD COMING UP IN DAYS 6 AND 7. A FEW
MORE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA SAT
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

THE WEEKEND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FORM OF AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
EVENT AS SEEN IN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE NCEP ENSEMBLES VALID 00Z SUN
ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...BUT START TO SHOW MORE VARIABILITY
00Z MON. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS VALID 12Z SUN SUGGESTS TWO SEPARATE
JET STREAM PATTERNS...WITH THE NORTHERN JET MOVING ACROSS VANCOUVER
ISLAND AND SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET DIRECTED
ALONG THE OREGON AND CALIFORNIA BORDER. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS. BOTH MODELS SHOW A MOIST BAROCLINIC
BAND DIRECTED AT SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA...INSTEAD OF NW OREGON
AND SW WASHINGTON. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE JET...WITH FORECAST 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES IN THE UPPER 530S TO
MID 540S. THE NORTH AND CENTRAL OREGON CASCADES WOULD RECEIVE A GOOD
DOSE OF SNOWFALL SHOULD THE PATTERN VERIFY. BY 00Z MON THE 500 MB
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...KEEPING THE FORECAST AREA IN A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS. THE LANE COUNTY CASCADES COULD END UP GETTING THE
MOST SNOW SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN MAINTAIN
THE COOL UPPER TROUGH THROUGH MON MORNING. FORTUNATELY...IT ALSO
LOOKS AS THOUGH PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING. MODEL AGREEMENT
CONTINUES TO DECREASE TUE...BUT THERE IS REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN A
SHORT-LIVED DRY PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER SYSTEM IN NW-
N FLOW ALOFT MOVING INTO THE AREA WED. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE A BIT
FASTER...BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE CASCADES WOULD GET ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL. WEISHAAR

&&

.AVIATION...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 08Z-11Z
TONIGHT WHEN NEXT FAST-MOVING FRONTAL BAND ARRIVES AT THE COAST
THEN PUSHES INLAND OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
IMPACT COASTAL SITES BY 10Z...THEN SPREAD INLAND AFTER 16Z. WILL
LIKELY SEE MVFR OR IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS DEVELOP IN HEAVIER RAIN
FROM 10Z-16Z THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LOCALIZED SW WIND GUSTS UP TO
25-30 KTS. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR POTENTIAL LLWS NEAR THE
COLUMBIA GORGE AFTER 06Z THU WITH LOW-LEVEL EAST WIND AND STRONG
S-SW WIND ABOVE FL030. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS CONTINUE THURSDAY...
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR WITH INCREASING RAIN AFTER 09Z.
OFFSHORE LOW- LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING BUT AS NEXT
FRONTAL BAND APPROACHES...COULD SEE SOME LLWS NEAR KTTD FOR A FEW
HOURS BETWEEN 10Z-14Z. THREAT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IS MAINLY
BETWEEN 13Z-17Z THURSDAY MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY BE IN HEAVIER
RAIN. ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY
AFTER 17Z. /27

&&

.MARINE...AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE LOW APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS
THIS EVENING WILL PRODUCE A LARGE WEST SWELL THROUGH THE WATERS
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY. AN ASCAT PASS OVER THE LOW
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THAT THE WINDS ARE INITIALIZING WELL
WITH GFS...AND HAVE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE ENP SWELL
FORECAST. THE ENP FORECASTS THE SWELL WILL BUILD TO 21 TO 24 FT AT
14 SECONDS EARLY THU MORNING THEN TO 28 TO 32 FT AT 17 SECONDS THU
AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE B.C. COAST THU...THEN
MOVE SW ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. THIS MIGRATION OF THE LOW
WILL MAINTAIN SEAS ABOVE 25 FT THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL INCREASE TO GALES LATE
TONIGHT. EAST WINDS OVER THE LAND MAY SLOW THE TIMING OF THE GALES
FOR THE WATERS WITHIN 10 NM A FEW HOURS. HIGH END GALES EXPECTED
THU WITH LOCALIZED STORM FORCE GUSTS. LOW END GALES EXPECTED THU
NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. ANOTHER BURST OF GALES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS THE LOW SENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS.

THE LARGE WEST SWELL WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS SURF FOR THE
BEACHES THU AND FRI. SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 45 FT ARE POSSIBLE...AND
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE LARGE SURGES OF WATER UP THE
BEACHES...AND EJECT LOGS AND DEBRIS FAR ON SHORE. THE SURF
COINCIDES WITH VERY HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES...AND COMBINED WITH
HIGH RIVERS AND RUN OFF FROM THE RECENT RAINS SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
FLOODING IS EXPECTED. HAVE EXTENDED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO
INCLUDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TJ

&&

OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CENTRAL
     COAST RANGE OF WESTERN OREGON-CENTRAL OREGON COAST-COAST
     RANGE OF NORTHWEST OREGON-NORTH OREGON COAST.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR CENTRAL OREGON COAST-NORTH OREGON COAST.

WA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH
     WASHINGTON COAST-WILLAPA HILLS.

     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM PST FRIDAY
     FOR SOUTH WASHINGTON COAST.

PZ...STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO FLORENCE OR OUT 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH COLUMBIA RIVER BAR UNTIL 6 PM
     PST FRIDAY.

&&

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Dec 10, 5:14 AM PST, 3 hours 46 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
514 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ALOHA                   45.49N 122.87W
12/09/2015                   WASHINGTON         OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STRONG WINDS BLEW DOWN A TREE ONTO A HOME.

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 S PORTLAND AIRPORT    45.52N 122.60W
12/09/2015                   MULTNOMAH          OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** STRONG WINDS BLEW DOWN A TREE INTO A HOME
            RESULTING IN ONE FATALITY, FEMALE, AGE 60.

0900 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      VERNONIA                45.86N 123.18W
12/09/2015                   COLUMBIA           OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SEVERAL LANDSLIDES IN COLUMBIA COUNTY
            NEAR VERNONIA. HIGHWAYS 47,30 AND 202 CLOSED DUE TO
            LANDSLIDES ISOLATING THE TOWN OF VERNONIA, OR.

0430 PM     FLOOD            ST. HELENS              45.86N 122.81W
12/09/2015                   COLUMBIA           OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** AN EDLERY COUPLE DROVE AROUND A BARRIER
            TO A CLOSED ROAD WITH SEVERAL FEET OF WATER AND THE
            AUTOMOBILE WAS SWEPT AWAY AND SANK IN 12 FT OF WATER. THE
            MAN ESCAPED THROUGH THE SUN ROOF, BUT THE WOMAN WAS
            UNABLE TO ESCAPE AND DIED.

0433 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      WOODLAND                45.92N 122.74W
12/09/2015                   COWLITZ            WA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED A LANDSLIDE ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NEAR
            WOODLAND, WA AT MILEPOST 23. NORTHBOUND LANE CLOSED
            OVERNIGHT.

&&

TW

Local storm report, Dec 10, 6:31 AM PST, 2 hours 29 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
631 AM PST THU DEC 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG ALOHA                   45.49N 122.87W
12/09/2015                   WASHINGTON         OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STRONG WINDS BLEW DOWN A TREE ONTO A HOME.

0630 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 5 S PORTLAND AIRPORT    45.52N 122.60W
12/09/2015                   MULTNOMAH          OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** STRONG WINDS BLEW DOWN A TREE INTO A HOME
            RESULTING IN ONE FATALITY, FEMALE, AGE 60.

0900 AM     DEBRIS FLOW      VERNONIA                45.86N 123.18W
12/09/2015                   COLUMBIA           OR   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED SEVERAL LANDSLIDES IN COLUMBIA COUNTY
            NEAR VERNONIA. HIGHWAYS 47,30 AND 202 CLOSED DUE TO
            LANDSLIDES ISOLATING THE TOWN OF VERNONIA, OR.

0140 PM     FLOOD            ST. HELENS              45.86N 122.81W
12/09/2015                   COLUMBIA           OR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            *** 1 FATAL *** AN EDLERY COUPLE DROVE AROUND A BARRIER
            TO A CLOSED ROAD WITH SEVERAL FEET OF WATER AND THE
            AUTOMOBILE WAS SWEPT AWAY AND SANK IN 12 FT OF WATER. THE
            MAN ESCAPED THROUGH THE SUN ROOF, BUT THE WOMAN WAS
            UNABLE TO ESCAPE AND DIED.

0433 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      WOODLAND                45.92N 122.74W
12/09/2015                   COWLITZ            WA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HEAVY RAIN PRODUCED A LANDSLIDE ALONG INTERSTATE 5 NEAR
            WOODLAND, WA AT MILEPOST 23. NORTHBOUND LANE CLOSED
            OVERNIGHT.

&&

TW

Event by event

2 coastal flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Coastal Flood, Northern Oregon Coast

When: December 10, 9:00 AM PST to December 11, 2:00 PM PST
Where: Northern Oregon Coast forecast zone
Property damage: $3.5 million
Reported by: County Official

Anomalous high tides and large surf prevented flooded rivers to recede between rain events, and contributed to coastal flooding across the North Oregon coast. Water from high surf entered several rooms of the Surfsand Hotel in Cannon Beach as well as blew out some of the windows. The high surf littered debris on the beach in Neskowin up to the rock barrier. An assisted living facility in Tillamook was evacuated. Highway 101 at Wheeler was closed due to flood damage and a road collapse. Bay Ocean Rd was washed out between Tillamook and Cape Mears. The port of Columbia River in Astoria was closed as well as the port at Tillamook Bay in Garibaldi. The Nehalem River near Foss remained above flood stage.

Coastal Flood, Central Oregon Coast

When: December 10, 10:00 AM PST to December 11, 2:00 PM PST
Where: Central Oregon Coast forecast zone
Property damage: $919,000
Reported by: County Official

Anomalous high tides and large surf prevented flooded rivers to recede between rain events, and contributed to coastal flooding across the Central Oregon coast. A person was briefly trapped in their residence by rising water in Lincoln City. Sewage overflowed into the ocean at Lincoln City. There was some issues with the boat ramps (brows) in Depoe Bay. Heavy rain sank a boat at Depoe Bay. The port at Yaquina Bay in Newport was closed as was the port at Siuslaw River in Florence.

What these are

Coastal Flood: Flooding of coastal land by the sea, from storm surge, onshore wind or high tides.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Oregon in 2015 Every state in 2015 This day in weather history Warnings in Oregon, December 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 612032, 612033.