The Collier Butte Wildfire was started by lightning at around 1400 PST on 08/02/2015. As of 0330 PST on 09/01/2015, the fire covered 11800 acres and was 55 percent contained.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Collier Butte Wildfire was started by lightning at around 1400 PST on 08/02/2015. As of 0330 PST on 09/01/2015, the fire covered 11800 acres and was 55 percent contained. 10.6 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 7:54 AM PST, 6 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
854 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING AN AREA OF
THICK CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN COOS AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES SOUTHWARD TO
CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY. HAVE SEEN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES
THIS MORNING, BUT OVERALL, LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. THE
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AN AREA OF
ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY SOUTHEAST TO
THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS NEAR LAKE TAHOE THIS MORNING. FOR THE
FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...IN TERMS OF
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL...A LOT WILL DEPEND ON JUST HOW MUCH IMPACT
THE AREA OF CLOUD COVER HAS ON INSTABILITY. THE CLOUD COVER MAY
KEEP SOME AREAS JUST STABLE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE SOME AREAS THAT ARE ON THE
EDGES OF THE THICK CLOUDS (WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, PORTIONS OF
THE EAST SIDE AND NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA). THERE SHOULD BE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THESE AREAS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.
SINCE THE FLOW ALOFT IS INCREASING A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFFSHORE, ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD STILL BE CARRIED OFF TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST OVER THE WEST SIDE. SO, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP THE
THUNDER THREAT WEST OF THE CASCADES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. RIGHT NOW, WE ARE NOT PLANNING ANY CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING HEADLINES SINCE. THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS
MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY SUCH
THAT THE BEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT AT LEAST A BIT
FARTHER EAST THAT IT HAS BEEN. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THAT THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE FIRES IN THE UMPQUA WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH COUNTY (INCLUDING KLMT)
THIS MORNING, AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE WEST TO INCLUDE
KMFR AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE THE SMOKE, CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INLAND FROM THE
COAST THIS MORNING, BUT ARE NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY CASCADES EASTWARD. STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC
WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS. AT THE COAST, AREAS IFR STRATUS WILL
BURN OFF THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. -WRIGHT
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO STRONGER
NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
AVIATION...FOR THE 02/12Z TAF CYCLE...LOW LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE FIRES IN THE
UMPQUA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CASCADES AND KLAMATH COUNTY
(INCLUDING KLMT) THIS MORNING, AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD THE
WEST TO INCLUDE KMFR AS SURFACE WINDS TURN NORTHERLY LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE THE SMOKE, CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
INLAND FROM THE COAST THIS MORNING, BUT ARE NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY CASCADES EASTWARD. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS. AT THE COAST, AREAS
IFR STRATUS WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT.
-WRIGHT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
DISCUSSION...
APPROXIMATELY 400 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS INLAND AREAS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH OVER 150 CLOUD TO OCEAN STRIKES WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THE COAST. WHILE SEVERAL STRIKES DID FIND THEIR WAY OUT
INTO THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS OF JACKSON AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES
SATURDAY, MOST STAYED IN THE MOUNTAINS. AT THIS HOUR, MOST OF THE
LIGHTNING THAT IS OCCURRING IS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS MORNING SUBTLE COOLING ALOFT WEST OF AND NEAR THE COAST IN
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS THERE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
MORNING. A SECONDARY AREA OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THERE TO JUST WEST OF MOUNT SHASTA
SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE SIERRAS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY
MAXIMA AT 500MB THAT NUMERICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS 500MB
FEATURE THEN PROPAGATES NORTH AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS VORTICITY FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DRIVING
MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN SHORT, THE FORECAST AREA
IS CURRENTLY LYING ON THE CUSP OF A MAJOR ROUND OF LIGHTNING AS IS
EVIDENCED BY CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE THE FORCING MECHANISM NEEDED TO INCREASE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA. FRUSTRATINGLY, DETAILS IN THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE MIXED. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, HOWEVER, IN MORE WEST
SIDE LIGHTING TODAY THAN WE'VE OBSERVED THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS,
PARTICULARLY IN JOSEPHINE COUNTY. UNCERTAINTIES LIE NORTHEAST OF
THERE, WHERE SMOKE AND SIGNIFICANT CLOUDINESS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. THE
INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND VORTICITY IS EXPECTED TO
MITIGATE THAT LESSER HEATING, HOWEVER, BRINGING INCREASED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
SMOKE TODAY WILL BE PUSHED ALONG MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
EXISTING FIRES. SUSPECT THAT MIXING AND LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TODAY WILL LIFT OUT A GOOD BIT OF THE SMOKE
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER, CONTINUED SMOKE GENERATION FROM FIRES IN
THE AREA MEANS IT'S VERY UNLIKELY SMOKE WILL CEASE TO BE AN ISSUE
FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE STOUTS
CREEK FIRE.
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH MOVING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
EASTWARD FOR MONDAY. IN FACT, THERE IS PLENTY OF LINGERING
INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, EVEN
ON THE WEST SIDE, AND ESPECIALLY FROM THE CASCADES EASTWARD UNDER
A GENERAL SOUTHWEST FLOW AS MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS AT
500MB. LIMITED MOISTURE, HOWEVER, IS EXPECTED TO KEEP STORMS
MOSTLY FROM THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, SISKIYOUS, AND CASCADES
EASTWARD. GUSTY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR ACTIVE WILDFIRES.
THERE WILL BE LINGERING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR SIMILAR AREAS,
DIMINISHING FROM THE WEST WITH TIME, TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE COMING UP
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNTIL ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVES
IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A NEW THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. BTL
MARINE...UPDATED 200 AM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED LIGHT NORTH WINDS AND SMALL SEAS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AND A THERMAL
TROUGH WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
STRONGER NORTH WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS THAT WILL LAST INTO THURSDAY.
-WRIGHT
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 250 AM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...FEW
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST THIS MORNING AS
THINGS REMAIN ON TRACK. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MOST
OF OUR AREA INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. THEY ARE IN EFFECT
THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE WEST SIDE AND THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ROUGHLY FROM THE CASCADES EAST. WE'VE SEEN A FAIR
AMOUNT OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT, BUT
WE HAVEN'T SEEN MUCH LIGHTNING OUT OF THEM, SO FAR. THERE ARE SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCES SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ROTATING
NORTHWARD THROUGH CALIFORNIA, AND ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR AREA TODAY. SEVERAL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND DAWN THROUGH MID
MORNING FROM CENTRAL SISKIYOU COUNTY UP THROUGH OUR WEST SIDE OREGON
ZONES. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY, SO IF THIS HAPPENS, STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY SIDE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, BUT THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT IS HIGH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT OUTBREAK OF STORMS
LATER TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
AROUND THE CENTRAL CA/NV BORDER MOVES NORTH. ALL THE MODELS AGREE ON
THIS, BUT PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST IMPACT VARIES. AS USUAL, THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST
SIDE. NEVERTHELESS, ALL OUR AREA IS POTENTIALLY UNDER THE GUN FOR
ABUNDANT LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONLY POSITIVE IS
THAT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS AND BASES
LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, SO STORMS SHOULD BE TRENDING WETTER THE LATER
IN THE DAY WE GET. THE ACTIVITY WILL CARRY ON LONGER FROM THE
CASCADES EAST, SO RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ625.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ624.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
ORZ615-616-619-620-622.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR ORZ617-621-623.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
CAZ280-281-284.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ285.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
MAS/BTL/TRWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Collier Butte Wildfire was started by lightning at around 1400 PST on 08/02/2015. As of 0330 PST on 09/01/2015, the fire covered 11800 acres and was 55 percent contained. 10.6 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Oregon in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Oregon, August 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 589746.