Guam, 2015

Hurricane and Rip Current in Guam, August 2 to 9, 2015

August 2 to 9, 2015 · NWS GUM · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

Typhoon Soudelor moves across the Western Pacific during the two weeks of|August. It passed across the island of Saipan late on the 2nd and early on the|3rd of August.

The toll

Deaths
2
Injuries
42
Property damage
$20 million
Crop damage
$1.0 million
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Typhoon Soudelor moves across the Western Pacific during the two weeks of|August. It passed across the island of Saipan late on the 2nd and early on the|3rd of August.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 8:31 AM UTC, 5 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 1, 8:31 AM UTC, 5 hours 29 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
631 PM CHST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE MARIANAS WATERS. SATELLITE SHOWS TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR TO
THE EAST WHICH IS GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE MARIANAS. THE VAD WIND
PROFILE REVEALS DEEP NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH THE
LOWEST 40 THOUSAND FEET OF THE AIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR IS THE BIG FORECAST PROBLEM...WHICH WILL
BE HIGHLIGHTED UNDER THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS SECTION. OTHERWISE...
THE BIG ACTION WILL BE THE APPROACH OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DUMP 6 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH TO INDUCE PERIODS OF MINOR FLOODING DURING THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD GO ON A FEW DAYS
LONGER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO EXTEND
THEM...PERHAPS MORE THAN ONCE.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS ARE SHOWING 3 TO 4 FEET RIGHT NOW. EXPECT THEM TO INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR. AFTER SOUDELOR PASSES
ON MONDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE. HOWEVER...IT
WILL BE QUITE SOME TIME BEFORE THEY REACH THE BENIGN LEVELS WE
HAVE BEEN ENJOYING RECENTLY.

&&

.TROPICAL SYSTEMS...
TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR KEEPS GETTING FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND TO
TURN NORTHWEST. ALL LAST NIGHT AND ALL DAY TODAY IT HAS REMAINED
A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM AND BARRELED ALMOST STRAIGHT WEST. THE
CURRENT JTWC TRACK HAS IT PASSING BETWEEN SAIPAN AND ANATAHAN.
SINCE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THIS WOULD BE
IDEAL FROM THE STANDPOINT OF REDUCING DAMAGE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF-
HIRES TAKES IT OVER TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THE GFS75 TAKES IT OVER
TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THE UKMET TAKES IT SOUTH OF TINIAN. HOPEFULLY
SOUDELOR WILL NOT STRENGTHEN MUCH UNTIL IT IS WEST OF THE
MARIANAS...BECAUSE IT IS STARTING TO LOOK LIKE TINIAN AND SAIPAN
MAY GET THE WORSE WINDS OF THE NORTH SIDE. THIS IS WHY WE WENT
AHEAD AND UPGRADED THEIR TYPHOON WATCH TO A TYPHOON WARNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PATTERN AND REASONING. TROPICAL
STORM SOUDELOR IS NOW LOCATED NORTH OF CHUUK NEAR 14N153E AND
CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM SOUDELOR THROUGH A WEAK CIRCULATION NEAR 3N166E TO END AT
EQ176E. CONVERGENT WINDS FLOWING INTO SOUDELOR ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER CHUUK...
POHNPEI...KWAJALEIN AND KOSRAE. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE
MARIANAS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH
THROUGH KOSRAE STATE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS NOW TO
THE WEST OF MAJURO WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT MAJURO THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE CIRCULATION WEST OF MAJURO WILL HELP MAINTAIN A
MONSOON PATTERN OVER KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A DRIER AND
MORE PLEASANT PATTERN MOVING IN FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SUNDAY
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WESTWARD...OVER POHNPEI
MONDAY AND OVER CHUUK LATER IN THE WEEK.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT SWELL AND WIND WAVES ALONG THE
WEST COASTS OF MICRONESIA. THE WW3 MODEL AND ALTIMETRY DATA INDICATE
SHORT-PERIOD WAVES WILL BE UP TO 5 OR 6 FEET ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
COMING DAYS. IF THE WEST SWELL BUILDS UP TO AROUND 7 FEET...THEN
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED ABOVE WITH THE EASTERN MICRONESIAN
DISCUSSION DUE TO A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

THE MONSOON TROUGH STRETCHES EASTWARD FROM 10N130E TO ABOUT 10N140E
THEN TURNS NORTHEASTWARD TO TROPICAL STORM SOUDELOR. CONVERGENCE
SOUTH OF THE TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF YAP BUT THE
MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED CONDITIONS SUITABLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SO
ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO TONIGHTS AND SUNDAYS FORECAST.
EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE WESTERLY WINDS WITH COMBINED SEAS BUILDING
ACROSS PALAU AND YAP THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST SURF IN PARTICULAR COULD
BECOME HAZARDOUS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GUZ002.
     TYPHOON WARNING FOR GUZ003-004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PMZ152.
                  TYPHOON WARNING FOR PMZ153-154.

&&

STANKO/ZIOBRO/DEVITA

Event by event

1 hurricane (typhoon), 1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Hurricane (Typhoon), Saipan

When
August 2, 12:00 AM GST to August 3, 5:00 AM GST
Where
Saipan forecast zone
Category
4
Injuries
40 direct, 0 indirect
Property damage
$20 million
Crop damage
$1.0 million
Reported by
Newspaper

On the morning of the 29th of July a tropical disturbance was located about 250 miles northwest of Kwajalein. The disturbance moved westward as it increased in intensity. Eventually, on the evening of July 30th it became Tropical Depression 13W when it was 985 miles east of Guam. The depression continued to intensify and by the next morning it became Tropical Storm Soudelor. Late in the afternoon of August 2nd Soudelor become a typhoon when it was 60 miles east-southeast of Saipan. During the day radar imagery indicated that the eye was only 5 miles across with a small eyewall surrounding it. Between 11 pm on the 2nd and 12 am on the 3rd Soudelor passed across Saipan. The eye and associated wind field was very small. It is amazing that despite the small size the typhoon managed to pass across Saipan.

Observations from the Saipan International Airport were lacking during the passage of the typhoon. Just before 11 pm the airport did record a sustained winds of 54 mph with a peak gust of 91 mph. This however did not depict the full fury of the storm as|a wind damage assessment showed that winds of 130 mph with gust to 160 mph|were likely.

Despite the damaging winds no fatalities were reported, but 40 people |were injured. Damage across the island of Saipan was extensive. |At the Mobil fuel tank farm a 20 foot cargo container blown by the wind breached a |120,000 gallon fuel storage tank, causing 11,000 of gallons of gasoline to spill|into a containment area around the tank. Another tank of fuel was damaged, causing|500 gallons of diesel fuel to enter the water at the Port of Saipan.

The typhoon caused three vessels to be blown from their moorings which later ran aground in Tanapag Harbor.

At the Saipan International Airport, two Cessna aircraft parked there were damaged.

Rain from the typhoon flooded the power plant in Saipan. The typhoon force winds|toppled power poles across Saipan. It was estimated that 50 percent of the primary |power distribution system was destroyed. The damage amounted to 150 power poles and 114 transformers. Across Saipan roofs were ripped off from houses and cars were flipped over.

An estimated $20 million in damage were the result of the typhoon. At the Saipan|Zoo, there was $150,000 in damage. It was noted that some stores in Saipan donated their meat to the zoo to feed some of the animals. The meat was given because of the lack of power there was no way to refrigerate what they had, so they felt that at least they could donate it.

Typhoon Soudelor also brought devastation to the natural environment in Saipan.|Over 65 percent of of nesting bird species on the island are affected due to loss of nests. Fruit bats also had nesting areas damaged by the typhoon.

Rip Current, Guam

When
August 4, 10:00 AM GST to August 9, 6:00 PM GST
Where
Guam forecast zone
Deaths
2 direct, 0 indirect
Injuries
2 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

At 10:12 a.m. on the morning of August the 4th Guam Fire Department responded to |a call at Matapang Beach in Tumon Bay. Life guards had pulled a 67 year old man from the water. Fire Department rescuers took the man to the hospital at 10:36 a.m..

Swell from distant Super Typhoon Soudelor was impacting the area. A High Surf Advisory was in effect. Hazardous Surf of up of to 10 feet was predicted. Ritidian Buoy did observe a maximum wave height of 16 feet at 9 seconds around 8:30 that morning. While the event took place within the reef, wave energy can create rip currents within the reef.

On August 8, 2015 Saturday morning, 5 local residents went on a hike to the Ague Cove area in northwest Guam. |During the hike, an 18 year old male went down to the water for a swim, but was caught by a wave and swept away from |the group. While two of the hikers ran up a hill to try and call 911, two others separated in an effort to rescue their friend, who was being pulled away from the cove. One of the two, a 19 year old male, saw a rope tied to a tree and wrapped|it around himself so he could attempt a rescue. He may have either tried to jump or rappel down into the water. However, he was struck by a wave into some coral and lost consciousness. Other hikers in the area rushed to help the 18 year old and were eventually able to call 911. It took about 45 minutes to an hour before first responders made it to the scene. |Guam Fire Department arrived at 1030 AM to rescue the two victims. GFD transported the 18 year old male that was initially in distress to Guam Memorial Hospital at 1230 PM where he was discharged later that evening. The other 19 year old male victim was retrieved by the Sea Combat Squadron (HSC-25) helicopter and transported to the Guam Naval Hospital where he passed away on August 9

At 5:30 p.m. on August the 9th, Guam Fire Department responded to a distressed swimmer report outside the reef in Tumon Bay near the Dusit Thani Hotel. Initially, five swimmers were reported in distress, but four made it to shore safely. A search was initiated for the fifth man. The swimmer was identified as a 20 year old male Marine who was on liberty from a base in Japan. The body was never recovered.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, Guam2015-08-0819MaleIn WaterDirect
Rip Current, Guam2015-08-0920MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Hurricane (Typhoon)
A tropical cyclone with sustained winds of 64 knots (74 mph) or more, filed per forecast zone for its wind, and with separate events for its flooding, surge and tornadoes.
Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, August 2015The 2015 hurricane season

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 601887, 601888.