Winter Weather in Ohio, January 8 to 9, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
342 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
STRONG WINDS...BLOWING SNOW...AND ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS IMPACTING FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
INTO FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN SUB ZERO THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

NO REST FOR THE WEARY THIS PERIOD AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM DROPS
THROUGH WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR, STRONG WINDS, AND
BLOWING/ACCUMULATING SNOWS...

A POTENT UPPER MIDWEST NW FLOW SHORTWAVE/SFC TROUGH WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WITH IMPRESSIVE
200 METER 5H HEIGHT FALL CENTROID TRACK THROUGH THE LOWER LAKES.
ASSOCIATED MID LVL DPVA SURGE ON NOSE OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED 120
KT 400 MB JET WILL FOCUS INTO THE AREA (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF)
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A SUFFICIENT 2 G/KG
SURGE EXPECTED WITHIN LLJ...WITH 40 KNOTS OF CROSS ISOBARIC FLOW
(SYSTEM RELATIVE) AND REDUCED CPD'S NOTED ON 285-290K SFC'S...
ENOUGH TO FORCE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOW IN WAA WING. PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN INCH OR TWO WITH THIS INITIAL BURST...WITH
SOME CONCERN FOR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TO SATURATE (HENCE THE
SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS...AMOUNTS). 925 MB WINDS PROGGED TO RAMP TO
50-55 KNOTS THIS EVENING WITHIN LOW LEVEL JET CORE.
LUCKILY...SHALLOW MIXING/INVERSION WILL LIMIT GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH
FOR THE MOST PART...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NO DOUBT BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE HEADLINE WORTHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND VIS REDUCTIONS
INTO FRI MORNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. DRY SLOT WILL LIKELY BRING
A BRIEF LULL IN SNOW FOR A TIME THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHERN HALF...WILL LIGHTER SNOWS FILLING BACK SOUTHEAST ALONG
TRAILING COLD FRONT LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

AS FOR SYNOPTIC SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT...FAVORED A MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR QPF GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT. SNOW RATIOS A LITTLE
TRICKY AS MODELS SHOW A PERIOD OF GOOD OMEGA AND SUPERSATURATION
WRT ICE LINED UP WITHIN A RELATIVELY DEEP DGZ (ALTHOUGH SOME
WARMING OF ISOTHERMAL LAYER TO NEAR/WARMER THAN -10C FOR A TIME).
HOWEVER...FRACTURING A DEFINITE LIMITING FAVOR GIVEN STRONG WINDS
WITHIN/BELOW SNOW PRODUCTION ZONE. GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS OPTED
FOR SNOW RATIONS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO (15-17:1) WHICH YIELDED SNOW
AMOUNTS RANGING FROM A INCH SOUTH TO 1-3" CENTRAL TO 2-4" NORTH
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE
WESTERLY FLOW LAKE ZONES SHOULD SEE THE ACCUMULATING SNOW END
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST BUT DID HOLD ONTO WINTER WX THROUGH
15Z FRIDAY GIVEN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW/VIS CONCERNS FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE.

ATTENTION LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WILL TURN TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE INDIANA TOLL ROAD IN
NC/NW IN AND SW LOWER MI AS STRONG CAA COMMENCES. BOUNDARY LAYER
FLOW THIS GO AROUND WILL BE MORE WESTERLY (280-290 DEG) WITH SIG DRY
ENTRAINMENT AND LACKING PARCEL RESIDENCE LIMITING FACTORS FOR MUCH
MORE THAN 1-3" SNOWS. HOWEVER...LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN BERRIEN/CASS
MI TONIGHT WITH GOOD DGZ/OMEGA/SATURATION ALIGNMENT THROUGH DGZ
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEALTHIER SNOWS (WARNING LEVEL) IN WAKE OF
SFC TROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH STRONG WINDS CREATING
WHITEOUT/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE/ELSEWHERE...COLD
AND MAINLY DRY (SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS) WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY NEXT CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WILL BE
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM.

VERY COLD AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
EVENING AS CENTER OF 1035 MB HIGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY
AND LOWER OH VALLEY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE LOW LEVEL HEIGHT
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AT LEAST 10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DESPITE
GRADIENT...MAGNITUDE OF ARCTIC AIR MASS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUBZERO
LOWS ONCE AGAIN...WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN
WHERE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MODIFICATION IS EXPECTED. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE 15 BELOW TO 25
BELOW RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...INVERSION HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ONSET OF STRONGER MID LEVEL WAA INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED LAKE EFFECT POPS FOR SW LOWER MICHIGAN FRIDAY EVENING BUT
WESTERLY FETCH AND SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING MID LEVELS
SHOULD LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TO LESS THAN AN INCH.

VERY COLD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS LOW LEVEL WAA
LIKELY NOT TO INITIALLY BE EFFICIENT AT SCOURING OUT SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIR MASS...AND NOT MUCH CHANGE MADE TO PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS FROM UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS. LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
SHIFTING TO THE MID ATLANTIC SHOULD KEEP MODERATE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
IN PLACE...AND VERY LIMITED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES ARE EXPECTED
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

ATTENTION FOR SUNDAY WILL TURN TO INCREASING SNOW CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
AS NEXT LOW AMPLITUDE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE BEGINS TO KICK OUT OF
SOUTHERN PLAINS. BROAD LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AND NORTHWARD THETAE
ADVECTION SURGE SUNDAY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SNOW CHANCES. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK/STRENGTH OF ANY FRONTAL WAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT SUSPECT THAT NORTHERN STREAM MAY
TEND TO SUPPRESS BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT A BIT...MORE INLINE WITH
12Z EC. HAVE INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR -SN SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF FORECAST
AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO MID CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THIS PERIOD
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH SOME POTENTIAL OF SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW DURING THE SUN-EARLY MON PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HINT AT
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGHING TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED PERSISTENCE OF BROAD GREAT LAKES
ANTICYCLONE INTO MID WEEK...HAVE KEPT REMAINDER OF FORECAST DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RAMP UP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION
WITH PRE-FRONTAL TYPE TROUGH FEATURE PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
REGION. GUSTS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KNOTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND VEERING WESTERLY LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS IN THE
21Z-00Z TIMEFRAME AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW...LIFR CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 22Z-02Z TIMEFRAME. MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY DUE TO LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW AND WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25
KNOTS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ013-015-
     020-022>027-032>034.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ003>007.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR INZ008-009-
     017-018.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ FRIDAY FOR
     INZ012-014-016.

MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ079>081.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ077-078.

OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-002-
     004-005-015-016-024-025.

LM...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-
     046.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...MARSILI
AVIATION...MARSILI

VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1212 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-091715-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
1212 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015 /1112 AM CST THU JAN 8 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ACCUMULATING SNOW...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND MUCH OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND
NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. PLEASE SEE THE
LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT FROM OUR OFFICE FOR MORE
INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS...ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW WILL AFFECT FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO EXTREME
NORTHERN INDIANA FRIDAY. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER
PRODUCT FROM OUR OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOW AMOUNTS AND ROAD CONDITIONS.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-091715-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
1212 PM EST THU JAN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

GALES AND HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE