Tornadoes and Hail in North Dakota, June 27, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
257 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND THE
DETAILS ARE TOUGH TO TIME WITH ANY CONVECTIVE EVENT...BUT THE HRRR
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE AS USUAL.

FOR REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 4 PM IN NORTHEAST ND THEN SPREAD SOUTH
AND EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY
COMBINATION...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE
FA UNTIL 10 PM. MOST STORMS SHOULD ROTATE FAIRLY EASILY AND IF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS ENHANCED...THEN THE
TORNADIC THREAT WILL INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
AREAS TOWARDS 6Z AS THEY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT WITH SUNSET.

ON SUNDAY...IT SHOULD BE DRY MOST AREAS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY BUT
STILL WARM IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

FOR MON...IT SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID AND
PERHAPS UPPER 80S.

ON TUE...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS
MAINLY IN THE WEST. INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH FAIRLY STABLE AIR
IN PLACE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER
GIVEN MORE CLOUDS AND EXPECTED SHOWERS.

RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE LONG WAVE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN RETROGRADES A BIT AND DE AMPLIFIES A BIT BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. THE FLOW ALOFT WAS STILL SPLIT WITH STREAMS MERGING
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM, THE GFS WAS A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS. IN THE NORTHERN STREAM, THE ECMWF WAS
FASTER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF WAS BRINGING AN UPPER LOW INTO WESTERN
CANADA AFTER WED. CURRENT TREND SHOWS THE ECMWF BACKING OFF MOVING
TROUGH INTO CANADA. WILL BLEND THE ECMWF AND GFS.

HIGH TEMPS WERE DECREASED TWO OR THREE DEGREES FOR WED...DECREASE A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR THU...LITTLE CHANGE FRI AND FOUR OR FIVE DEGREES
HIGHER FOR SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WAS ALONG THE RED RIVER AND INTO SOUTHERN MAN. A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES AND A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY WAS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN ZONES. CIGS WERE
MOSTLY ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FT. SOME CUMULUS WAS AROUND THE BJI
AREA...WOULD EXPECT CIGS BETWEEN 4 AND 5 THOUSAND FT. EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE AREA AND
CONCURRENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH STORMS. SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPPES/DK
AVIATION...DK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-281645-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
1135 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AHEAD OF A FRONT DROPPING SOUTH FROM CANADA INTO
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AREA
OF HIGHEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR STRONGEST STORMS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES IS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL RED RIVER
VALLEY...INCLUDING GRAND FORKS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER THAN 2 INCHES...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO THREATS. COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
WILL GIVE PERIODIC SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. BUT AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MNZ006-272000-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
230 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 229 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WHEELERS POINT...OR 43 MILES EAST OF ROSEAU...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WHEELERS POINT AROUND 240 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4887 9469 4884 9470 4883 9471 4879 9470
      4875 9488 4891 9499 4901 9472 4888 9468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 245DEG 21KT 4888 9481

JK