Damaging Winds in Georgia, June 27 to 30, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AS AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION DEEPENS, ALONG WITH THE ROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS, THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN AND SWING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING STRONG
DEEP LAYER FLOW FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT PLENTIFUL WARM, MOIST, GULF AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA. LOCAL
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY QUITE ACTIVE
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA GULF COAST AND STARTING TO
POP UP IN OUR NORTHERN ZONES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. WITH
STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND DECENT SHEAR FOR OUR AREA THIS TIME OF YEAR
(20-25 KTS 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR), SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY] VFR-MVFR CIGS TODAY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR
ECP, TLH, AND VLD THIS MORNING, THEN AT DHN AND ABY LATER IN THE
DAY. GUSTY WINDS (15-20 KTS) FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH HIGHER GUSTS (25+ KTS) AND REDUCED VSBYS EXPECTED WHEN STORMS
DIRECTLY AFFECT TERMINALS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR
AS STORMS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [315 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY]...

THE DEVELOPING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
REACH ITS PEAK AMPLITUDE ON SUNDAY, AS A RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTH GA AND SOUTH AL. AMPLE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND Q-G FORCING (UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) WILL
ENCOURAGE DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THOUGH THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER IN SOUTHEAST AL AND CENTRAL GA AS MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT DEVELOPS THERE ON SUNDAY. ANY LINGERING Q-G FORCING
WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ON MONDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH FLATTENS AND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WEAKENS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT MESOSCALE-DRIVEN CONVECTION,
MAINLY IN FL, WHERE THE POP WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE
POP IN GA AND AL, DEEPER INTO THE DRY AIR, WILL ONLY BE 20 PERCENT.
ANY SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR NORTH TO AFFECT OUR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]...

MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A 500
MB TROUGH, BUT THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BEGIN
BUILDING WESTWARD ACROSS FL BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THE PREDICTED
LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN CORRELATES WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER
CONVECTIVE REGIME, DOMINATED BY THE SEA/LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION. THE
GFS APPEARS A LITTLE BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THAN THE ECMWF, AS THE GFS RETAINS MORE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DESPITE
THE BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE. OUR POP IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO
SOLUTIONS, AND A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO VALUES. THE PEAK DAILY POP OVER
LAND  WILL GENERALLY BE 30 TO 40 PERCENT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 70S
AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

.MARINE...

THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH AND HIGHER PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL CAUSE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO REMAIN RATHER STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

.HYDROLOGY...

DESPITE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF RAIN ON FRIDAY, THE FAST MOTION OF
THE STORMS LIMITED AMOUNTS TO GENERALLY HALF AN INCH OR LESS, WITH
JUST A FEW HEAVIER TOTALS. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY, SO FLASH FLOODING AND RIVERINE FLOODING ARE
UNLIKELY. THE GFS, SREF, AND NAEFS-DRIVEN MMEFS FORECASTS ALL LOCAL
RIVERS TO REMAIN BELOW THEIR ACTION STAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, EVEN THOUGH A FEW RIVERS (LIKE THE OCHLOCKONEE AT THOMASVILLE
AND THE LOWER WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER) SHOWED SOME DECENT RISES OVER THE
PAST DAY OR TWO FROM HEAVIER RAINS SEVERAL DAYS AGO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   90  75  88  73  90 /  70  50  60  40  30
PANAMA CITY   87  77  85  76  86 /  80  70  50  40  30
DOTHAN        90  72  88  71  90 /  80  60  50  10  20
ALBANY        90  72  89  70  91 /  70  60  50  10  20
VALDOSTA      92  74  89  71  90 /  60  40  60  20  30
CROSS CITY    91  75  89  74  87 /  50  30  60  50  50
APALACHICOLA  89  78  87  77  88 /  80  50  60  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER