A stationary front produced heavy rains with some flooding.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILM wrote it up.
A stationary front produced heavy rains with some flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 3, 6:45 AM EST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 645 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 .SYNOPSIS... A WEDGE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. CLOUDY SKIES AND THE RISK OF LIGHT RAIN WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND... BRINGING A RISK FOR SHOWERS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...THE BACK EDGE OF THE STEADIEST RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO APPROACH FROM THE SW AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG FRONT CONTINUED TO SLOWLY MOVE ENE ALONG BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR S AND E. THERE HAS BEEN A RARE LIGHTNING FLASH EARLY THIS MORNING... BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEEPEST MOISTURE HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER... THE TREND HAS BEEN TEMPORARILY STYMIED BY APPROACHING WAVE. WE EXPECT THE CONVEYOR BELT OF DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL STRUGGLE TO REGAIN ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND FRONT SETTLES FURTHER S AND E. MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL JUST BARELY DRIFT TO THE NE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE AREA. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THIS MORNING...TAKING THE LAST ROUND OF WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WITH IT FOR THE TIME BEING. A FRONT OFFSHORE AND TO OUR S WILL DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MODEL MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW DRYING IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TAKING PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...LASTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE BELOW 14 KFT OR SO REMAINS AMPLE AS WEDGE BUILDS STRONGLY ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. OTHER THAN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT...THERE IS NO APPARENT LIFTING MECHANISMS TO GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...EXPECT A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY INTERMITTENT LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. FOG SHOULD BE EVEN MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT AS SURFACE BASED INVERSION BECOMES VERY PRONOUNCED. COOL ENE TO NE FLOW WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN. EXPECT A VERY SMALL DIURNAL RANGE WITH LITTLE TEMP CHANGE AS YOU MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS GIVEN FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE DOING THE SAME FROM POINTS SOUTH WILL MAKE FOR A CLOUDY WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT THE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL GENERALLY BE LACKING TO SEE A REPEAT OF TUESDAY-LIKE RAINFALL. DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE WHOLE SHORT TERM WILL FEATURE A WARMING TREND AND THAT A FEW PLACES MAY HEAT UP TO 80 DEGREES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A RETURN FLOW REGIME. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...CURRENTLY FRIDAY IS REALLY THE ONLY DRY DAY OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE AND NOW THE GFS IS SOWING SOME MINOR QPF ALONG THE COAST. WILL LEAVE THAT OUT FOR NOW AS OFFSHORE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING SIT IN PLACE, THE LATTER GENERALLY ACTING TO QUASH ANY PRECIP. BOTH MOVE OFF THE COAST ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES CAUSING RAIN CHANCES TO RETURN INTO THE FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS PASSAGE. THE LATEST GFS FOR EXAMPLE HAS A CLEAN FROPA, ONE THAT WOULD IMPLY MUCH COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS US TRANSITION TO ANOTHER COOL AIR WEDGE FOLLOWING FROPA THAT WOULD IMPLY COOLER BUT ALSO CONTINUED CLOUDY WEATHER AND LOW POPS. THE LATTER APPEARS MORE APPEALING GIVEN THE OVERALL LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE UP THE COAST THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ALONG THE COAST ARE VFR AT THIS TIME...BUT WITH ALL THE PRECIP EXPECTED THIS MORNING...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE CEILINGS RETURN TO IFR AROUND MID MORNING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIKEWISE INLAND TERMINALS WILL REMAIN IFR. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR ON WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 600 AM TUESDAY...A FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS STRONGLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. WE EXPECT A COUPLE MINI NE SURGES...ONE THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT... STRONGEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS WILL BE 2 TO 3 FT...BUT WILL FORECAST UP TO 4 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURGES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...ON WEDNESDAY A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH THAT MAY CAST SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST WHICH WILL OTHERWISE BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WIND WAVES WILL BE SMALL AND THERE ARE ALSO SEVERAL MINOR SWELL COMPONENTS SHOWING UP IN SPECTRAL WAVE BULLETINS. EVEN SO EXPECT A PREDOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT OF JUST 2 FT. ABOUT THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES HEADING INTO THURSDAY IS THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH PROGRESSES EASTWARD. LOCALLY THIS WILL LEAD TO A VEERING OF THE FLOW WHILE SPEEDS STAY CAPPED AT 10KTS. THE MORE ONSHORE FLOW DIRECTION COULD INTRODUCE A FEW 3 FT HIGH PREDOMINANT WAVES. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...FRIDAY BRINGS A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW REGIME AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AND FURTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC AND A FAIRLY HEALTHY LOOKING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED FOR A SATURDAY ARRIVAL. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE CONDITIONS THAT FOLLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME GUIDANCE HAS A MORE WINTER-LIKE FROPA WITH A STRONG PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE/COLD AIR THAT WOULD CERTAINLY NECESSITATE ADVISORIES. A POSSIBLY MORE PLAUSIBLE MODEL SOLUTION SHOWS A LAZIER FROPA AND A WEAKER PUSH OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WOULD PRECLUDE NOT ONLY ADVISORY BUT MAYBE EVEN SCEC. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && NEAR TERM...RJD SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...MBB AVIATION...43
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 239 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 AMZ250-252-254-256-040745- SURF CITY TO CAPE FEAR NC OUT 20 NM- CAPE FEAR NC TO LITTLE RIVER INLET SC OUT 20 NM- LITTLE RIVER INLET TO MURRELLS INLET SC OUT 20 NM- MURRELLS INLET TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SC OUT 20 NM- 239 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ087-096-099-105>110-SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-053>056-040745- ROBESON-BLADEN-COLUMBUS-INLAND PENDER-COASTAL PENDER- INLAND NEW HANOVER-COASTAL NEW HANOVER-INLAND BRUNSWICK- COASTAL BRUNSWICK-MARLBORO-DARLINGTON-DILLON-FLORENCE-MARION- WILLIAMSBURG-INLAND HORRY-COASTAL HORRY-INLAND GEORGETOWN- COASTAL GEORGETOWN- 239 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. 27
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding was reported on Mill Branch Road and Ash Road.
Flooding was reported on Stanbury Road near Varnamtown.
Flooding was reported on Fifty Lakes Drive and Filmore Road.
Highway 133 near Funston Road was closed due to 8-10 inches of moving water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 609293, 609294, 609295, 609296.