Flood in California, November 3 to 4, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
930 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...CONTINUED COOL WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY. FAIR...DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK OFFSHORE
FLOW. COOLER WITH A RETURN OF NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS
TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

CLOUDY AND COOL THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INLAND OVER
CALIFORNIA. SO FAR...MUCH OF THE REGION HAS RECEIVED MEASURABLE
RAINFALL WITH LINDBERGH FIELD RECEIVING 0.47 INCH IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATEST ACCUMULATION WAS 0.89 INCH AT LAKE CUYAMACA. THE
SNOW LEVEL HAS LOWERED TO AROUND 6000 FT IN THE SAN BERNARDINO
MTNS...WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW REPORTED AT RUNNING SPRINGS.

SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE MEAN TROUGH ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...MAINLY
TO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. EXPECT PRECIP AMOUNTS TO CONTINUE TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO
AS MUCH AS THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH. THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF LATE WED
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
STABILIZE WITH DRY NW FLOW ALOFT.

AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN ALOFT FROM THE NORTH...THE SNOW
LEVEL COULD LOWER ENOUGH FOR A DUSTING OF SNOW ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS
IN SAN DIEGO COUNTY TONIGHT AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT IN
THE SAN BERNARDINO AND SAN JACINTO MTNS.

THE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LOCAL GUSTS OF UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH WED.

FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...EXPECT A WARMING TREND WITH WEAK
OFFSHORE FLOW AND GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS/FOG FROM
DEVELOPING. THERE IS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS ABOVE 500
MB...SO IT WILL RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BE MAINLY
WEAK...THERE IS A PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN IT COULD GET
A BIT MORE GUSTY...WITH OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASING TO 8-
9 MB FROM SAN DIEGO TO TONOPAH.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AS TROUGH MOVES IN OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...AND ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
COOLING TREND AND NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER STRATUS INTO THE
COAST AND VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...

040300Z...COAST/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH BASES 3000-5000 FEET
MSL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS MAY
SEE VIS RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CLOUDS INTERSECTING HIGHER
TERRAIN...OTHERWISE LOCAL VIS RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER 12Z.

MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SHOWERS AND LOCAL TERRAIN OBSCURATION MOST
LIKELY ON THE COASTAL SLOPES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND DESERTS SLOPES INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SCT AOA 7000 FT MSL WILL PREVAIL INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

700 PM...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CREATE CHOPPY AND HAZARDOUS
SEA CONDITIONS. FOR DETAILS CHECK THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...LAXMWWSGX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING LIGHTNING. SEE THE
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...LAXMWSSGX...FOR MORE DETAILS

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM PST WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT TO 30 NM-
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING
     30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

&&

PUBLIC...PG
AVIATION/MARINE...ALBRIGHT