A shortwave moving across the area during peak heating triggered a line of showers and thunderstorms, which produced numerous reports of wind damage.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A shortwave moving across the area during peak heating triggered a line of showers and thunderstorms, which produced numerous reports of wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 9:23 AM EST, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 1023 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TODAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD FROM FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL NC THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 1015 AM SATURDAY... EARLIER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE TRIAD HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED THIS HOUR WITH A BAD OF CLOUDS REMAINING FROM THE FOOTHILLS...JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE NW PIEDMONT. NOT A LOT OF ENHANCEMENT ON THE VISIBLE PICTURE AT THIS TIME AND THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON ALL PRECIPITATION UNTIL AROUND 17Z WHEN TEMPERATURES RISE ENOUGH TO START GETTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN AS SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BUT THEN A PUSH FROM A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE TRIAD AFTER 18Z COULD BEGIN TO ORGANIZE STORMS A LITTLE MORE. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE AND INSTABILITY BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG WOULD EXPECT SOME KIND OF LINEAR MULTICELLULAR FEATURE WHICH WILL WORK THROUGH THE CWA FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM 500 MB VORTICITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE TRIANGLE AREA MID AFTERNOON AND THE I- 95 CORRIDOR BY EARLY EVENING. SPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS. -ELLIS HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUD COVER FROM THE APPROACHING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HAVE LOWERED PREVIOUS HIGH TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO... GIVEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER TODAY... ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF EXPECTED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS... WILL GO WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. TONIGHT AND SUNDAY: ANY LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA AND/OR DISSIPATE BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING... WITH MID LEVEL FEATURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE WARM AGAIN FOR TONIGHT... WITH LOWS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY... WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXTENDING EASTWARD RIDGE AXIS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER... THE LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DISTURBANCES ALOFT TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THUS... EXPECT ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THIS COUPLED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES THAN TODAYS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S... WITH POSSIBLY A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING 100 ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FA. -BSD && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S. AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE PIEDMONT WILL PRODUCE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FACTORS FOR CENTRAL NC ON MONDAY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES VARY BETWEEN 1440S TO AROUND 1450M IN THE AFTERNOON...INDICATIVE OF TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S AND POSSIBLY REACHING THE CENTURY MARK. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70...HEAT INDICES 102-106 WILL BE COMMON WITH A HEAT ADVISORY POSSIBLY WARRANTED...MAINLY IN THE SANDHILLS AND SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SUB-TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE SLIGHT-MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD INITIATE/SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH COVERAGE AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE NO WORSE THAN 20-25 PERCENT AT ITS PEAK. WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AS ANY CONVECTIVELY INDUCE VORT MAX IN THE NW FLOW WOULD LEAD TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR REGION. EXPECT RATHER STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SUGGEST A DECENT CHANCE FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY... BY TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S...EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL DEEPEN A L/W TROUGH OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC...INDUCING NWLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL SEND DISTURBANCES INTO OUR REGION AND AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION BY TUESDAY. TIMING OF THESE FEATURES DIFFICULT AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS USUALLY A LITTLE TARDY. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP ACROSS THE REGION...FAVORING TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. TEMPS TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF SCATTERED CONVECTION AND EXTENT OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM. FOR NOW WILL ADVERTISE MAX TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY LOWER THAN MONDAY'S MAX TEMPS OVER THE NW THIRD WITH COMPARABLE TEMPS ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO A S/W CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS. TUESDAY'S UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS PROJECTED TO LIE TO OUR SE ON WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD. THIS SET-UP CHANGES LITTLE ON THURSDAY. THIS SUGGEST HOT CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY FRIDAY AS ANOTHER MID-UPPER LEVEL S/W APPROACHES FROM THE NW. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE POP MOST LOCALES FRIDAY AND TEMPS REMAINING A CATEGORY OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL. && .AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 700 AM SATURDAY... 24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING AND INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER... WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT (MAINLY KGSO/KINT/KRDU). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST. IT NOW APPEARS THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FASHION... WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE TRIAD BY EARLY AFTERNOON... TO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (KFAY). ANY STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY END BY MID EVENING... WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT... ALONG WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG. LOOKING AHEAD: WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK...A RELATIVELY ENERGETIC SUMMER-TIME PATTERN IN WHICH DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL POSE THE GREATEST CONCERN TO AVIATION. NON-DIURNAL (I.E. OVERNIGHT) CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE PRESENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT...I.E. IF UPSTREAM MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS (MCS'S) PROPAGATE INTO THE REGION. MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY GIVEN SEASONABLE MOISTURE... PERIODS OF WEAK WARM ADVECTION... AND THE PRESENCE OF CONVECTION DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SYNOPSIS...RAH NEAR TERM...ELLIS/BSD SHORT TERM...WSS LONG TERM...WSS AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 NCZ007-021>023-038-039-190930- PERSON-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH- 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NCZ008>011-024>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-190930- GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE- CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT- WAYNE-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 347 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES EACH AFTERNOON...BEGINNING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1252 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
NCZ007-008-024-025-181800-
PERSON NC-DURHAM NC-ORANGE NC-GRANVILLE NC-
1252 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS
OF PERSON...DURHAM...ORANGE AND GRANVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...
AT 1252 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR PROSPECT HILL...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DURHAM...CHAPEL HILL...OXFORD...ROXBORO...HILLSBOROUGH...CREEDMOOR...
CARRBORO...BUTNER...ROUGEMONT AND CONCORD.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SEEK SHELTER IN A NEARBY BUILDING OR VEHICLE. WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
40 MPH ARE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND
TRASH CANS...POTTED PLANTS...LAWN FURNITURE AND OTHER LIGHT OUTDOOR
OBJECTS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF YOU CANNOT FIND SHELTER
INDOORS...AN ENCLOSED VEHICLE CAN PROVIDE SAFE SHELTER FROM
LIGHTNING. DEADLY LIGHTNING STRIKES CAN OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM...PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND WIND.
&&
LAT...LON 3654 7846 3653 7847 3651 7850 3646 7851
3617 7850 3608 7854 3602 7855 3608 7869
3607 7875 3603 7875 3601 7870 3598 7871
3592 7876 3592 7881 3587 7883 3586 7908
3588 7925 3624 7926 3624 7915 3654 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1652Z 302DEG 15KT 3626 7913
ELLISThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:56 UTC.
12 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were blown down across the road at Highway 15S and Bryans Hill Road southwest of Oxford.
A couple of trees were blown down along a swath from a few miles southwest of Dabney to a couple of miles northeast of Dabney.
A couple of trees were blown down along a swath from a few miles southwest of Franklinton (near Youngsville) to a couple of miles northeast of Franklinton.
A few trees were blown down along a swath from near Pilot to near Castalia.
A couple of trees were blown down across the roadway.
A tree was blown down onto a car. Monetary damage was estimated.
A tree was blown down in Scotland Neck.
A couple of trees were blown down in the roadway.
Multiple trees were blown down across the eastern portion of the county.
Several trees were blown down in the roadway.
A tree was blown down across High Plains Road.
Multiple trees were blown down northeast of Dabney. One of the trees fell onto a house. Monetary damage was estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 591571, 591572, 591573, 591574, 591575, 591576, 591577, 591578, 591579, 591580, 591581, 591582.