A weak upper level disturbance moved across New York during the early morning hours. This triggered scattered, heavy rain producing thunderstorms over parts of Central New York.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BGM wrote it up.
A weak upper level disturbance moved across New York during the early morning hours. This triggered scattered, heavy rain producing thunderstorms over parts of Central New York. Localized flash flooding occurred across the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes region.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Binghamton, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 18, 5:47 AM EST, 1 hour 43 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 647 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 .SYNOPSIS... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHIFTING INTO NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE CATSKILLS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL TOP 90 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES DUE TO THE HIGH HUMIDITY. THE INCREASE IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE STRONG STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MORE COMFORTABLE AIR RETURNS TO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 415 AM UPDATE... WATCHING TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING, WITH ANOTHER ROUND LIKELY LATER TODAY. FIRST AREA OF CONVECTION IS OVER CENTAL PA IS WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SOME ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POP UP OVER NEPA AND SOUTHERN NY BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS LIMITED THROUGH DAYBREAK. SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION NOW OVER THE GENESSE VALLEY OF NY. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS ALL THAT WELL, WITH A GENERAL IDEA OF THE AERIAL PLACEMENT BUT NO CLUE ON THE INTENSITY. INCREASED POPS IN THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY TO HIGH CHANCE AS A FIRST STAB. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST THROUGH 12Z. WFO BUFFALO HAS ALREADY ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING AS THE CONVECTION HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF TRAINING A BIT AND PRODUCING 1.5"+ AMOUNTS IN JUST AN HOUR. WILL WATCH THIS CLOSELY. OVERALL THIS SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT HEADS EAST, WITH A GENERAL LULL IN COVERAGE THROUGH MID MORNING. BY MIDDAY THE TROF THAT IS CAUSING THIS THE CONVECTION NOW OVER NY STATE WILL SPARK A 2ND ROUND OF STORMS ROUGHLY STARTING NEAR THE KELM/KITH/KBGM AREA IN THE 16Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME. NORTH AND WEST OF HERE WHILE A WIDELY SCT. STORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT, THE REAL THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST. IT WILL BE HERE FROM NEPA TO ALONG AND NEAR THE I-88 CORRIDOR THAT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. MLCAPES ON THE NAM STILL NEAR 3500 J/KG AND I DON'T BELIEVE IT. GFS MLCAPES ARE CLOSER TO 1000 OR 1200. I LIKE THE MEAN SREF VALUES WHICH ARE IN THE 1200 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, PLENTY ENOUGH AROUND HERE TO BE OF CONCERN. THESE VALUES ALONG WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP STORMS MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY AND KEEPING ANY INDIVIDUAL CELLS FROM LASTING TWO LONG. I BROKE OUR CURRENT HWO UP TO HIGHLIGHT THE RISK AREAS JUST MENTIONED OR ROUGHLY FROM NEAR THE GREATER BINGHAMTON AREA SOUTH AND EAST. CONVECTION DIMINISHES VERY QUICKLY THIS EVENING WHILE EXITING STAGE RIGHT. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 430 AM UPDATE... HOT AND HUMID, JUST LIKE SUMMER SHOULD BE. THAT SUMS UP SUNDAY. DID LITTLE WITH TEMPS, WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE 90-92 RANGE, AND ELEVATIONS 84 TO 88. WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70, HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH NEAR 100 POSSIBLE IN THE METRO AREAS OF CNY AND NEPA. EXCELLENT HWO FROM YESTERDAY WAS KEPT IN TACT FOR THE HEAT THREAT. IN ADDITION FROM JUST 24 HOURS AGO, THREAT FOR STORMS LATER SUNDAY LOOKS A BIT HIGHER. BEST SHEAR STILL LOOKS TO BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WE SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A TRIGGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CAPES AGAIN AVERAGE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS CLEAR US OUT PRETTY QUICKLY MONDAY SO BESIDES AN EARLY SHOWER, I CLEARED POPS FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON AS COMFORTABLE AIR SETTLES IN. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 3 PM UPDATE... FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE. MINOR CHANGES. IN GENERAL DRY AND AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL. NO BIG SYSTEMS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. 20 POPS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK FRONT. ANOTHER FRONT DROPS SOUTH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY WITH CHANCE POPS. MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS OF THE 2 RAIN MAKERS. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHRT WV AND SFC TROF IS TRIGGERING SOME SHWRS AND ISLTD TRWS THIS MRNG RESULTING IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. WV WILL PASS IN THE NEXT CPL HRS LVG VFR CONDS. SECOND WV WILL TRIGGER SOME SHWRS ARND MIDDAY WITH PSBL BRIEF LWRG INTO MVFR AS WELL. BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL CONT VFR CONDS. OVRNGT...LWRD CIGS AND VSBY PSBL IN THE STABLE CONDS...WITH LIFR PSBL IN ELM IN DENSE FOG. .OUTLOOK... SAT THRU MON...A FEW RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT SHRA- TSRA...ESPECIALLY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SUN NGT-EARLY MON. TUE/WED...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && SYNOPSIS...HEDEN NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...DGM
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 418 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044-190830- NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN- SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND- 418 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL BRING HEAT INDICES TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. ONCE HEAT INDICES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES THE CHANCES FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE FOR THOSE DOING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NYZ045-046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072-190830- CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-SUSQUEHANNA- NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-SOUTHERN WAYNE- 418 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE HIGHEST THREAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE AREAS EAST OF I-81 IN NEW YORK STATE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR SUNDAY...THE COMBINATION OF THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE YEAR AND HIGH HUMIDITIES WILL BRING HEAT INDICES TO BETWEEN 95 AND 100 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. ONCE HEAT INDICES APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES THE CHANCES FOR HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES INCREASE FOR THOSE DOING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO, YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORIES, WATCHES AND WARNINGS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HEDEN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
542 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
NYZ015-016-022-181015-
SENECA NY-YATES NY-STEUBEN NY-
542 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STEUBEN...
SOUTHWESTERN SENECA AND YATES COUNTIES...
* AT 541 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN STEUBEN...SOUTHWESTERN
SENECA AND YATES COUNTIES.
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE...
SENECA FALLS...WATERLOO...PENN YAN...DUNDEE...ROMULUS...STARKEY...
BENTON...PULTENEY...OVID...DRESDEN...LODI...GUYANOGA...
PRATTSBURG...KEUKA PARK...KENDAIA...WILLARD...MILO CENTER...LODI
STATION...PORTER CORNER AND YATESVILLE.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4266 7719 4276 7713 4277 7697 4287 7698
4287 7696 4291 7696 4289 7673 4284 7671
4279 7674 4274 7673 4259 7681 4248 7701
4249 7710 4247 7711 4253 7742
TIME...MOT...LOC 0941Z 282DEG 25KT 4285 7700 4265 7712 4256 7728
HEDENSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
612 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
NYZ015>017-023-025-181100-
SENECA NY-YATES NY-SCHUYLER NY-TOMPKINS NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-
612 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN TOMPKINS...
NORTHEASTERN SCHUYLER...SOUTHERN SENECA...SOUTHWESTERN CAYUGA AND
SOUTHEASTERN YATES COUNTIES...
* AT 612 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TOMPKINS...NORTHEASTERN
SCHUYLER...SOUTHERN SENECA...SOUTHWESTERN CAYUGA AND SOUTHEASTERN
YATES COUNTIES.
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE...
PENN YAN...DUNDEE...HECTOR...ROMULUS...STARKEY...COVERT...GENOA...
LEDYARD...TRUMANSBURG...AURORA...INTERLAKEN...OVID...LODI...
GUYANOGA...LAKEMONT...PERRY CITY...LODI STATION...KING FERRY...
BRANCHPORT AND KIDDERS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4264 7718 4266 7692 4283 7682 4268 7647
4247 7653 4248 7681 4252 7715 4257 7715
4258 7721
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 301DEG 22KT 4278 7674 4257 7682 4250 7696
HEDENSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
NYZ015-016-022-023-181145-
SENECA NY-YATES NY-SCHUYLER NY-STEUBEN NY-
636 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN STEUBEN...NORTHERN
SCHUYLER...SOUTHWESTERN SENECA AND YATES COUNTIES...
* AT 636 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN STEUBEN...NORTHERN SCHUYLER...
SOUTHWESTERN SENECA AND YATES COUNTIES.
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE...
PENN YAN...DUNDEE...HECTOR...STARKEY...BENTON...POTTER...
MIDDLESEX...PULTENEY...ITALY...RUSHVILLE...BURDETT...DRESDEN...
LODI...GUYANOGA...LAKEMONT...MECKLENBURG...KEUKA PARK...PERRY
CITY...VINE VALLEY AND ROCK STREAM.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4258 7737 4267 7737 4267 7736 4270 7736
4276 7731 4276 7708 4264 7680 4253 7669
4242 7669 4240 7698 4257 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 180DEG 0KT 4263 7727
HEDENSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
756 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
NYZ022>025-055-PAZ038-181245-
SCHUYLER NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-CHEMUNG NY-STEUBEN NY-BRADFORD PA-
756 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL STEUBEN...TIOGA...
SOUTHWESTERN TOMPKINS...SOUTHERN SCHUYLER...CHEMUNG AND NORTHEASTERN
BRADFORD COUNTIES...
* AT 755 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL STEUBEN...TIOGA...
SOUTHWESTERN TOMPKINS...SOUTHERN SCHUYLER...CHEMUNG AND
NORTHEASTERN BRADFORD COUNTIES.
* THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AND COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE HEAVY RAINFALL INCLUDE...
CHEMUNG...ELMIRA...SAYRE...WAVERLY...OWEGO...ATHENS...WEST
ELMIRA...SOUTHPORT...BARTON...BIG FLATS...HORSEHEADS...NEWFIELD...
ELMIRA HEIGHTS...RIDGEBURY...ERIN...HORNBY...LITCHFIELD...SOUTH
WAVERLY...WINDHAM AND CANDOR.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.
&&
LAT...LON 4230 7722 4225 7689 4240 7664 4213 7611
4200 7610 4200 7615 4191 7613 4185 7614
4181 7620 4188 7662
TIME...MOT...LOC 1155Z 310DEG 38KT 4232 7665 4221 7683 4225 7706
TACThe Binghamton radar (KBGM), 106 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:30 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
There were numerous reports of road flooding and closures in the Town of Jerusalem.
Heavy rain and flooding caused the closure of County Route 245 from the county line to Flint Hill Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New York in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New York, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596811, 596812.