A closed upper level low that developed southwest of San Diego California moved into central Arizona early on the 30th before shifting south into Mexico on the 31st. This system drew significant subtropical moisture northward into the area, with nearly record high precipitable water values that were around 3 standard deviations above the mean.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A closed upper level low that developed southwest of San Diego California moved into central Arizona early on the 30th before shifting south into Mexico on the 31st. This system drew significant subtropical moisture northward into the area, with nearly record high precipitable water values that were around 3 standard deviations above the mean. Mid level warm air advection prevented a more widespread snow event, limiting major snowfall accumulations to mainly areas above 7500 feet. Even then, a significantly deep warm layer on the 31st created a mix of rain, snow, and sleet for locations as high up as 10000 feet. Fifteen inches of snow was reported in the Jemez Mountains with nearly 2 inches of rain falling in the Glenwood area. High flows, mud, rocks, and debris were reported along the access road to the Catwalk in Catron County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 29, 11:16 PM MST, 44 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 1116 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015 .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE A MIX OF WINTRY PCPN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...BEFORE BECOMING WDSPR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 4500 FT OVER NE AREAS TO AROUND 8000 FT OVER SW AREAS. THE BIG FORECAST CHALLENGE THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE IDENTIFYING WHEN OR IF RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES. WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE PCPN TYPE IN THE FORECAST AT KSAF AND KLVS...BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE AT OTHER TAF SITES DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...941 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015... .UPDATE... NEEDED TO ADD LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY ZONE...ZONE 517...TO WINTER STORM WARNING AREA AND ALSO DELAYED START OF MOST OF WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN ROUGHLY NE HALF OF FCST AREA TIL 09Z TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED SLIGHTLY LATER SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ONSET AND ALSO TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK. THOSE ARE BIGGEST REASONS FOR THIS UPDATE...BUT ALSO SLIGHTLY LOWERED LOW TEMPS FOR EARLY FRI IN PORTIONS OF MAINLY CENTRAL TO N CENTRAL NM WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A DEGREE OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH THE EARLY STAGES OF THE PRECIP. ALSO LOWERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE POPS DUE TO SLIGHTLY LATER PRECIP ONSET TIMES AND ALSO DROPPED LATE NIGHT QPF A BIT MOST OF THE AREA. UPDATED ZONES AND WINTER WX PRODUCT WILL BE ISSUED ASAP. 44 && .PREV DISCUSSION...339 PM MST THU JAN 29 2015... .SYNOPSIS... A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM EVENT WILL IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH SATURDAY. ABUNDANT SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A PACIFIC LOW AND CREATE A MIX OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW. SOME SLEET WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE EVER CHANGING TEMPERATURE PROFILE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ABOVE 7500 FEET. THE PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL DIG SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND BEGIN THE DRYING PROCESS. DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .DISCUSSION... AS MENTIONED DURING PREVIOUS SHIFTS...VERY TRICKY FORECAST IN TERMS OF DETERMINING SNOW/RAIN/SLEET IMPACTS ACROSS THE LANDSCAPE. FEEL THAT THE MODELS WILL UNDER DO THE INTENSITY AND REACH OF THE ELEVATED MOIST/WARM TONGUE AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW BUT AT THE SAME TIME COULD BE UNDERDOING THE IMPACT OF COOLER/LOWER DEWPOINT AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AT THE SURFACE. THAT COMBINATION CREATES A VERY TRICKY PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST. BASED ON THE SNOW TOTAL GRID FOR THE EVENT...MAIN CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST PACKAGE INCLUDE LOWERING SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY WET BULB ZERO FORECASTS SINCE THIS IS MORE OF A SATURATED ENVIRONMENT EVENT. THE EC AND SE PLAINS AREA IN PARTICULAR WILL HAVE TO BE RE LOOKED AT IN TERMS OF HIGHLIGHTS BECAUSE THERE IS A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CAPROCK AS WELL AS SOME SLEET POTENTIAL. ESPECIALLY AS THE ELEVATED WARM TONGUE DEVELOPS. THIS IS A SYSTEM WHERE UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...LOOKING AT SLAM DUNK WARNING SNOW TOTALS FOR MOST OF THE MTN ZONES. VERY IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS SHOW UP ABOVE 8500 FEET. HAVE SOME NEAR 20 INCH AMOUNTS FOR THE MT TAYLOR AND HIGHEST GILA TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW AMOUNTS WIHIN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ESPECIALLY GREATER ABQ METRO AREA WILL VARY WIDELY WITH NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS POSSIBLE RURAL AREAS WEST OF RIO RANCHO AND THE ABQ FOOTHILLS. NEAR WARNING AMOUNTS AT SANTA FE POSSIBLE AS WELL. FEEL THAT THE OVERALL IMPACT OF THE EVENT WARRANTS ADVISORY WORDING. ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND/ROAD CONDITIONS WENT INTO THAT DECISION MAKING. THE INCOMING COLD AIRMASS FROM THE NORTH HAS ALREADY BEEN MODIFIED AS WELL. THE HEAVIER QPF OR LIQUID WATER PERIODS WILL ALSO TRY TO MODIFY THE SURFACE AIRMASS AS WELL. THUS THE WET BULB ZERO EFFECT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE CLOSELY. MAV GUIDANCE STILL QUITE A BIT STRONGER VERSUS THE NAM GUIDACE IN ITS EAST CANYON WIND VALUES FOR THE ABQ AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE MAV DID A BETTER JOB WITH THE LAST EASTERLY WIND EVENT AND OUR WIND GRIDS SHOW THE HIGHER MAV NUMBERS. THINKING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR. CANT RULE OUT 30 TO 32 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE EAST WIND IMPACT ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LESSENING RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY PERIOD ON FRIDAY. BLENDED IN THE EAST WIND EFFECT ON THE LIQUID WATER VALUES BY MAKING THEM LOWER IN THE STRONGER WIND ENVELOPE AREA BUT HIGHER ON THE WESTERN PERIFPHERY OF IT. AS FAR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES...DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS BUT COOLER DAY TIME HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY. OTHERWISE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMP GRIDDED FORECAST. MODELS STILL TAKE THE UPPER LOW SOUTHWARD AND WEAKEN IT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THUS HAVE THE HIGHLIGHTS ENDING AT 5 PM SATURDAY. THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM MODEL SHOWS A LITTLE MORE WEAKENING SATURDAY AND LESS QPF VERSUS THE GFS SO THAT TREND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE UPGLIDE OR OVERRUNING DYNAMICS ALSO WEAKEN RAPIDLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS INDICATED BY BOTH THE NAM/GFS. DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS. GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER BREEZES AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND STRENGTHENS. PERHAPS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MIDWEEK. 50 && .FIRE WEATHER... .NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS... EXPECT WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION AREAWIDE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. LOOK FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH STRONGER WARM UP FOR MONDAY. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EDGE TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA...MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHED WEST THROUGH THE RGV WHICH LOWERED DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PEAK LATER THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE RGV BUT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INTO FRIDAY. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL FAVOR SNOW WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. EXPECT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE 7000 FT FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND ABOVE 8500 FT FOR WESTERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION WILL END SUNDAY. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK FOR DRY CONDITIONS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. EXPECT WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE FAR EAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-506-508-524>526-539. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-510>515-517-521>523-529-533. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-507-516-518-519-527-528-530>532. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ540. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 517 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015 NMZ501>540-301300- NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS- NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS- WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS- SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS- WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER- SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET- EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY- LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA- LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY- CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY- SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA- FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY- HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY- QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY- CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY- 517 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINED WITH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PRECIPITATION WILL EXPAND FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THIS WIDESPREAD AND OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE...THUS LOWER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY BELOW 7000 FEET...MAY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. HEAVY WET SNOW MAY COMPROMISE THE STRUCTURAL INTEGRITY OF SOME ROOF TOPS...ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET WHERE GREATER THAN A FOOT OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS... WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/ABQ OR BY CALLING 1.888.386.7637. 34
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
14 heavy snow, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rain within the headwaters of Whitewater Creek produced high flows along Catwalk Road. Several feet of rocks, mud, and debris were observed within flood-prone low water crossings.
COOP observer and public reports indicated between 4 and 12 inches of snow.
Trained spotter reports indicated between 4 to 12 inches of snow.
COOP Observer, SNOTEL, and ski resort reports indicated between 6 and 15 inches of snow.
CoCoRaHS and public reports indicated between 2 and 8 inches of snow.
CoCoRaHS and trained spotter reports indicated between 2 and 7 inches of snow.
Amateur radio and trained spotter reports indicated between 1 and 6 inches of snow.
CoCoRaHS and ski resort reports indicated between 2 and 8 inches of snow.
COOP Observer and SNOTEL reports indicated between 7 and 14 inches of snow.
CoCoRaHS and Trained Spotter reports indicated between 4 and 11 inches of snow.
COOP Observer and ski resort reports indicated between 8 and 10 inches of snow.
Ski resort reports indicated between 4 and 9 inches of snow.
Trained spotter and COOP Observer reports indicated between 3 and 8 inches of snow.
Trained spotter and CoCoRaHS reports indicated between 2 and 7 inches of snow.
COOP Observer reports indicated between 2 and 4 inches of snow.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, January 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 551808, 551722, 551723, 551726, 551732, 551733, 551735, 551736, 551725, 551727, 551728, 551729, 551731, 551738, 551737.