Damaging Wind in Nevada, July 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 PM PDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL SPREAD
NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. RADAR LOOP AT THIS TIME IS
SHOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA. A FEW STORMS MOVED OVER AUTOMATED WEATHER STATIONS IN
WHITE PINE COUNTY. AS OF 2 PM...CATTLE CAMP RAWS RECEIVED 0.19
INCHES WHILE THE ELY CEMP GOT 0.23 INCHES. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA.

MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR MONDAY. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE PRESSING FURTHER NORTH.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE 0.80
INCHES...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN NYE COUNTY. STORM SPEEDS WILL BE
QUITE SLOW AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. CORFIDI VECTORS IN THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 0 TO 5 KNOT RANGE. ALL OF
THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTHERN NYE THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING. LATER SHIFTS MAY WANT TO INVESTIGATE FURTHER THE IDEA OF
EXPANDING THE WATCH. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AT ALL LOCATIONS...SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE CENTRAL PARTS WITH
INCREASED CLOUD COVER. HIGHS THERE SHOULD BE IN THE 70S TO NEAR
80...WITH LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE KEPT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER...THINK THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE WARM.
OVERNIGHT READINGS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S FOR ALL
AREAS. ON TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREK
NORTHEASTWARD. A WEAK BAND SETS UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND COULD BE A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH THIS AREA...WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHER LANDER/EUREKA AND WHITE
PINE COUNTIES...FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. OVERALL MODEL
AGREEMENT IS OK SYNOPTICALLY IN THE BEGINNING BEFORE DIVERGING AFTER
WEDNESDAY.  THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BEGIN WET AND CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
BEFORE DRYING OUT AND WARMING UP TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN 500MB LOW OPENING UP AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE STATE...PULLING SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT. STRENGTH WISE...MODELS
ARE TRENDING WEAKER (TILT MORE POSITIVE). THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPER TROF DIGGING TOWARDS NORCAL. ALL MODELS FORM A WEAK CLOSED
500MB LOW OFF THE TAIL END OF THE TROUGH; HOWEVER PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCE EXIST (NEARLY 500 MILES)...WITH THE GFS AND GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN MUCH CLOSER TO THE NORCAL COAST. AS THE TAIL END OF
THIS TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHING INTO THE AREA SOMETIME LATE WED.
THIS COULD ENHANCE THE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
NV. ON THU..THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST BUT BEGINS TO FALL
APART. WHERE IT IS LOCATED WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. MEANWHILE...BACK TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE COAST. IT GETS KICK OUT...LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NW. NOW...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...THIS DEEP TROF FAILS
TO PICK UP THE LOW DUE TO ITS FURTHER WEST PLACEMENT. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THIS WEAK LOW IS GRABBED BY THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT MOVES ONSHORE
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST NEXT SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS
USED AFTER THURSDAY...MOISTURE IS LIMITED AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY.

NOW...WHAT THIS ALL MEANS IS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGING AROUND NEAR
ID/UT/NV BORDER AREA FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DUE TO THE HIGH PW/K VALUES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS WITH THE POSSIBLE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE; THEREFORE DID INCREASE POPS LATE WED
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPS...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS
TO BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE CLOUD COVER BEFORE CLIMBING
TO NEAR THEREAFTER.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM (60S) DUE
TO HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER BEFORE LOWERING TO AVERAGE
VALUES AFTER THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER KELY WILL DIMINISH DURING
THE EVENING HOURS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FOR KTPH AND KELY
TERMINALS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE SURGING UP FROM SOUTHERN NEVADA ON
MONDAY WILL RESULT IN INCREASED STORM ACTIVITY...WITH MANY STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA PRODUCING WETTING RAINS. THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL SPREAD NORTH FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. DRYING WILL COMMENCE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH AFTERNOON BREEZES BOTH DAYS.

&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE COUNTY-NORTHWESTERN NYE COUNTY.

&&

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