Damaging Winds in Florida, July 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1010 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Near term forecast is on track and thus have only made some minor
changes to account for trends in temperature and dew points. Radar
has been quiet so far this morning and best timing for
thunderstorms this afternoon still appears to be after 2pm. Given
this, the PoP forecast is still on track and have made no
adjustments there.

&&

.Prev Discussion [623 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...

In the upper levels, a ridge centered over the Southern Great
Plains will be the dominant feature on Monday. By Tuesday morning,
the ridge will weaken as a deep trough pushes through the Ohio
River Valley. At the sfc, a trough or stationary boundary will
remain over the region for Monday and Tuesday. As a result, rain
chances will be high for both days. Showers and thunderstorms will
be more numerous in the afternoon hours and isolated otherwise.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the 100
to 107 degree range.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...

In the upper levels, the trough over the Northeast will deepen.
Extending down to Northern FL by Tuesday. At the sfc, low level
moisture is abundant and weak low pressure will linger throughout
the week. A stationary boundary or sfc trough will likely be over
the region throughout the week. This means a very wet pattern. The
best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be in the afternoon
hours, although isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible
anytime. Afternoon highs will be in the low 90s. Humidity will be
high, so heat indices in the afternoon hours will be in excess of
100 degrees.

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Monday] Other than brief periods of MVFR visibility
at the very beginning and end of this TAF period, VFR conditions
will prevail. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon and could also briefly reduce ceilings and
visibilities.

.Marine...

Winds will be light and southwesterly. By Monday night, winds will
become moderate and westerly. Seas will be 1 to 2 feet until
Tuesday night when they are expected to increase (2 to 3 feet). An
unsettled weather pattern will be in place for the next week,
bringing increased chances for rain and thunderstorms.

.Fire Weather...

Humid conditions and increasing rain chances will preclude any fire
weather concerns this week, which is typical throughout the
summer.

.Hydrology...

Modest rises on area rivers and streams from rainfall earlier this
week have tapered off with all locations well below action stages.
A stretch of active weather looks to be developing, starting
Monday and continuing through at least Thursday. Precipitable
water values exceed 2 inches by Tuesday, and with weak steering
flow in place, expect some storms to produce very heavy rainfall,
which could cause some localized flooding, particularly if these
heavier amounts fall in an urbanized area.

Area streamflows are slightly below normal for this time of year
across the region, especially within the main stem river systems,
suggesting there's some storage capacity to handle some heavy
rainfall. Thus, the potential for river flooding is on the low
side with this storm system.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   98  77  93  76  91 /  60  30  60  30  50
Panama City   91  78  89  79  89 /  50  30  50  30  50
Dothan        98  76  96  76  95 /  50  30  50  30  40
Albany        97  77  95  76  94 /  50  30  50  30  40
Valdosta      97  76  94  76  91 /  70  30  60  30  50
Cross City    94  76  90  76  90 /  30  30  60  30  60
Apalachicola  92  78  87  78  89 /  30  30  50  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening FOR Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-North Walton-
     South Walton-Washington.

GA...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening FOR Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JLF
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY