Heavy Rain in Nevada, January 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
223 AM PST SUN JAN 11 2015

.SYNOPSIS...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO SYSTEMS PUSH THROUGH. THE FIRST WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT TODAY. THE SECOND
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO UTAH AND ARIZONA
MONDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THOSE AREAS.
DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...ACT TWO OF THE THREE
SYSTEM WEEKEND IS UNDERWAY THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BEING
REPORTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LIGHT THUS FAR...STAYING UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH
AS OF 2 AM. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
EXPAND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THE CORE OF THE TOTAL PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FALL ALONG A 120-180 MILE WIDE BAND CENTERED ON A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
BARSTOW TO SEARCHLIGHT TO KINGMAN. IN THIS BAND QPF TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 0.10-0.33 INCHES...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
FALLING TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. LAS VEGAS WILL LIKELY BE SITUATED
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS BAND...AND CURRENT ESTIMATES ARE
RAINFALL TOTALS OF A TRACE TO ONE-TENTH OF AN INCH FOR THE VALLEY.
SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER IN THE 7000-800 FOOT RANGE...AND THUS
SNOWFALL WILL ONLY BE A FACTOR ON THE HIGHEST ROADS...AND EVEN
THERE...SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN MOST AREAS BY THIS EVENING AS DRIER AIR
TRIES TO WORK IN. HOWEVER...THERE IS SLIGHT CONCERN FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG IN AREAS THAT SEE WETTING RAIN TODAY AND
CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT. DON'T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN AREAS AT THIS
TIME AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
MONDAY. MODELS HAVE SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD TREND IN THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. AS A RESULT HAVE KNOCKED DOWN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN MAY AREAS FOR MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCES WILL
RESIDE OVER EASTERN LINCOLN AS WELL AS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTIES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND SNOW
LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE 6000-6500 FEET...THUS SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL EXIT
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT
THE TROUGH TO BE AMPLIFYING OVER UTAH...WITH ANY LEFTOVER PRECIP
CHANCES CONFINED TO THE FAR EASTERN FRINGES OF THE CWA. NORTHERLY
FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH WINDS TO THE FAVORED AREAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. A WEAK TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
FLATTENS THE RIDGE...LEAVING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WITH
HIGH HEIGHTS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY THERE IS MODEL
AGREEMENT ON THE EXISTENCE OF A TROUGH JUST OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN ITS EXACT LOCATION AND STRENGTH. THAT WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE NEAR FUTURE...BUT FOR THE TIME BEING...IT
SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID JANUARY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND LOW CIGS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/LOW
CIGS AT KLAS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 19-00Z. CIGS COULD BRIEFLY LOWER TO
UNDER 5K FEET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A VERY (EMPHASIS ON VERY) REMOTE CHANCE
OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IF WETTING RAIN FALLS IN/AROUND THE
TERMINAL TODAY AND SKIES CLEAR OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA LATER TODAY. CLOUD BASES WILL LOWER TO 3K-7K
FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHOWERS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS POSSIBLE.
VSBY WILL MAINLY BE VFR WITH MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT IN AREAS THAT SEE WETTING RAIN
TODAY AND CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED
BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MONDAY ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............MORGAN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER