High Wind in Nevada, December 3, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
302 AM PST THU DEC 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY, WITH
DRIER WEATHER SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL RISE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
BUMPED UP SNOWFALL SEVERAL INCHES TONIGHT FOR MONO COUNTY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 395 AND INCREASED WINDS (ESPECIALLY RIDGES) SATURDAY NIGHT,
OTHERWISE MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WARM ADVECTION RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION
(ABOVE 7000-8000 FEET) SNOW MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA
NORTH OF LAKE TAHOE AND FAR NORTHWEST NEVADA YESTERDAY EVENING AND
EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS ARE WANING AND SHOULD END BEFORE
SUNRISE.

INCOMING SYSTEM OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REMAINS ON
TRACK, WITH THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON FOR PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES, AROUND SUNSET FOR
THE TAHOE AREA, AND BY 8 TO 10 PM FOR THE MONO COUNTY CREST. THE
MAIN THEME REMAINS THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW FOR THE SIERRA
WILL FALL IN A 6 HOUR PERIOD, WITH RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
POSSIBLE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A RAPID DETERIORATION OF ROAD
CONDITIONS ABOVE 5500 FEET IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND THE
NORTHERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
SUSANVILLE TO PORTOLA TO HIGHWAY 89 LINE WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED.

FARTHER SOUTH IN MONO COUNTY, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO SHALLOW OUT
QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE MAIN UPPER FORCING REMAINS TO THE NORTH
OF THAT AREA. STILL, WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW OF 25-35 KTS ALONG
THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT, MONO COUNTY WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 IS STILL
EXPECTED TO PICK UP 3-6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL TONIGHT. FARTHER EAST
IN MONO COUNTY, SHADOWING SHOULD BE STRONG SO AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO FALL OFF QUICKLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 395.

FOR WESTERN NEVADA, SHADOWING STILL LOOKS RATHER STRONG SOUTH OF
A PYRAMID LAKE TO LOVELOCK LINE ALTHOUGH THE 06Z NAM HAS COME IN
WITH A HINT OF PRECIPITATION BLOWOVER DOWN INTO THE RENO-CARSON
CITY AREA ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY TO BE BRIEF WITH
THE FRONT SO AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 0.10" WITH PERHAPS A
HALF-INCH OR SO OF SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTH VALLEYS (ABOVE
5000 FEET) THIS EVENING. AS FAR AS WINDS, THOUGHTS HAVE NOT
CHANGED REGARDING WINDS AND THE RENO-SPARKS AREA ALONG HIGHWAYS
395/580 STILL LOOKS A MAIN TARGET FOR WIND GUSTS 55-65 MPH GIVEN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE PRECIPITATION BAND. SEE THE HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR MORE DETAILS.

TONIGHT, SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE SIERRA AND NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA BEHIND THE FRONT GIVEN MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND
SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS (MAINLY TAHOE NORTH) UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT IN THOSE AREAS.

FRIDAY, PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WINDS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE NEXT UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FOR SUN-MON, COMPUTER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES CROSSING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AS EACH
SHORTWAVE PASSES THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS (LESS THAN
0.20 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION) ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST RIDGETOP WINDS MAINLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-GERLACH LINE.
SOME OF THE NEWER MODEL RUNS ARE BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION A FAR
SOUTH A THE TAHOE BASIN AS WELL AS STRONGER SURFACE GRADIENTS SUNDAY
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
EASTERN SIERRA.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODEL RUNS THIS MORNING(03/00Z) SHOW A FAIRLY
WET, ENERGETIC STORM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SIERRA AND
WESTERN NV WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE OOZ GEFS ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SHOW A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS (NORMAL FOR A 7-8 DAY
FORECAST) BUT MOST DO SHOW A STRONG JET ACROSS THE MID-LATITUDES OF
THE PACIFIC WITH A TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST BY MIDWEEK. THUS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR POTENTIAL WINTER STORM IMPACTS THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. JCM/HOHMANN

&&

.AVIATION...

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR, AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
WITH TRRN OBSCURATION/ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT FOR SIERRA TERMINALS.

WIND: RIDGE LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 90-100KT AT THE RIDGES BY THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS OCCUR OVER THE PACNW INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SURFACE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FIRST IN THE HIGHER SIERRA VALLEYS THIS
MORNING (KTRK-KTVL) AND THEN TRANSITION TO LOWER VALLEYS OF WESTERN
NV AND NORTHEAST CA MID TO LATE MORNING. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMMEDIATELY PRECEDING THE BREAKDOWN OF
INVERSIONS, ESPECIALLY AT KCXP-KRNO. ONCE THE INVERSIONS BREAK
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE GOING TO SUDDENLY INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE
STRONG, LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. NORTH-SOUTH FACING VALLEYS
ARE GOING TO BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO STRONG SUSTAINED WINDS INCLUDING
KTVL-KCXP-KRNO. SUSTAINED WINDS 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS 55 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS TO 65 MPH IN WIND
PRONE AREAS. THE WINDOW FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND FAR WESTERN NV ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE BETWEEN
10 AM AND 5 PM. BLOWING DUST WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES
DOWNWIND OF SINKS IN THE BASIN AND RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BACK OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT
PASSES.

PRECIPITATION: MOST OF THE MOUNTAIN SNOW/VALLEY RAIN WILL STAY IN
THE SIERRA AND ACROSS NORTHEAST CA-NORTHWEST NV AS THE HIGHWAY 395
CORRIDOR FROM KSVE-KRNO-KMMH AND BASIN AND RANGE STAY SHADOWED.
THESE SHADOWED AREAS MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. THE MORE SIGNIFICANT BAND OF PRECIPITATION
WILL REACH WESTERN LASSEN AND PLUMAS COUNTIES AROUND MID AFTERNOON
AND THEN OTHER SIERRA LOCATIONS BY LATE AFTERNOON TAHOE BASIN AND
MONO COUNTY EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE BAND WILL MOVE QUICKLY BUT
WILL BE QUITE INTENSE FOR 4-6 HOURS, PRODUCING RAPID ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOWFALL FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW ARE ANTICIPATED AT KTRK/KTVL. SNOW SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE LIGHTER IN NATURE, POSSIBLY ADDING
ANOTHER INCH OF ACCUMULATION. LESS SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR KMMH BUT 1-2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. NO ACCUMULATION FOR NEVADA TERMINALS.

JCM/HOHMANN

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     NVZ005.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING NVZ002.

     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING NVZ003.

     BLOWING DUST ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING NVZ004.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS
     EVENING FOR PYRAMID LAKE IN NVZ004.

CA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING CAZ071.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
     CAZ070.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
     CAZ073.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM PST THIS
     EVENING CAZ072.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)