Damaging Wind in Montana, July 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
540 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ALONG THE
WEST COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING NE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MT. A SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTH-
CENTRAL MT THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SASKATCHEWAN
TONIGHT, BRINING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, ENOUGH WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE
TRAIL BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM IN SW FLOW ALOFT TO KEEP A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE TOUGH WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY FOR A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RELATIVELY DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
IN FROM THE SW MONDAY EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MORE SUN ON MONDAY LEADING TO TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT EAST FROM SOUTHERN AB ACROSS THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES FOR BREEZY WEST WINDS EACH DAY ACROSS THE NORTH-
CENTRAL MT PLAINS. HOENISCH

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND EC MODELS SEEM TO
BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM TONIGHT...BUT EXACT TIMING
DETAILS ON PRECIPITATION IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING FOR THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK. AT THIS POINT...NO PARTICULAR DAY LOOKS TO
HAVE AN ALL DAY RAINFALL...BUT BECAUSE OF THE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS...IT IS TOO UNCERTAIN TO FORECAST ANY PROLONGED DRY
PERIODS AS WELL. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND..WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE LOWER
80S. BRUSDA

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 2338Z.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNSETTLED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. THE AIRMASS
BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN SUNDAY AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  61  83  56  84 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  59  82  53  81 /  20  10   0  10
HLN  60  83  59  84 /  20  30  10  30
BZN  53  81  53  83 /  30  40  20  20
WEY  42  71  42  74 /  30  30  30  30
DLN  53  78  52  78 /  30  40  30  40
HVR  60  89  55  89 /  50  40  10   0
LWT  56  82  55  83 /  30  30  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS