Several rounds of heavy rain fell over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois from the afternoon hours of July 11th through the early morning hours of July 12th. There were numerous reports of flash flooding as well as two deaths, one from flash flooding and one from a fallen tree.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LSX wrote it up.
Several rounds of heavy rain fell over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois from the afternoon hours of July 11th through the early morning hours of July 12th. There were numerous reports of flash flooding as well as two deaths, one from flash flooding and one from a fallen tree.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS St. Louis, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 10:55 AM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1155 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 CLUSTER OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL MO ARE OCCURING IN ASSOCIATION WITH GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ. BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC AND CAMS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY EASTWARD THIS MORNING IN CONJUCTION WITH THE STEERING FLOW ALOFT AND GRADUALLY VEERING LLJ. THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF ANY STORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE CURRENT MID CLOUD EXTENT AND VEERING LLJ, I THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED- WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS EXISTS THIS MORNING AT LEAST DOWN TO THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHICH IS JUST NORTH OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOUDS, CONVECTION AND LIFTING WARM FRONT, WARMING LOW AND MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME IN JULY. GLASS .LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THERE ARE LOTS OF QUESTIONS AND FORECAST CAVEATS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN EXPANSIVE UPPER HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OUR LOCATION ON THE PERIPHERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT POINTS TO BOTH BIG HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TO THIS END THE MODELS ARE QUITE VARIED ON THE STRENGTH OF LOW-MID LEVEL WARMING AND EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRONGER CAPPING AND PLACEMENT OF QPF. THE ECMWF SEEMS MOST AGRESSIVE WITH THE EXTENT OF QPF INTO OUR CWA DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIODS. THE GENERAL THOUGHT IS THIS THAT THE VEERING SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AND ONLY MODERATELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS TONIGHT ARE SUFFICIENT TO MERIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN MO INTO CENTRAL IL. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, STRONG WARMING IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS SHOULD RESULT IN A FORMIDABLE CAP TO SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. A RELATIVELY HOT AFTERNOON IS ON TAP WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES OF 100-103. THESE HI VALUES ARE LARGELY BASED ON THE BELIEF THE MODELS ARE A BIT AGRESSIVE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SURFACE DEW POINTS. IF THE TDS ARE HIGHER THEN WE MIGHT HAVE SOME 105 HIS. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY A SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING FROM THE UPPER MS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD LEAD TO HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT AND COOLING AND WESTWARD RETREAT OF THE EDGE OF CAPPING, ALLOWING FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY FOCUSED FROM FAR EASTERN MO INTO IL. THIS COULD BE A COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES/CLUSTERS AND NEW DEVELOPMENT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OVER THE NEXT 3 WITH CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOW-MID LEVELS - H85 TEMPS AOA +24 DEGC AND H7 TEMPS OF +12 TO +14 DEGC BY 00Z TUES. THIS LOOKS LIKE A DAY THAT A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED PROVIDED THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION FROM SUNDAY SOMEHOW DOESN'T HAMPER IT. HEAT INDICES IN MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD BE 105+. I DON'T ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION BEYOND THE MORNING RESIDUAL AND THE AFTERNOON CAP SHOULD BECOME STOUT. MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD DEVELOP WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY PROVIDING FORCING AND WEAKENING THE CAP. STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER STOUT AT 35-40 KTS. ALL THE PARAMETERS ARE SUGGESTIVE OF A POTENTIAL DERECHO SWEEPING FROM EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL SOUTHEASTWARD AND IMPACTING FAR EASTERN MO INTO IL. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY SINKS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND THEN WAVERS NORTH AND SOUTH DURING THE WEEK RESULTING IN PROLONGED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND SEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF IT. GLASS && .AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1120 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR IRK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IMPACTING UIN AT TIMES. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ST LOUIS METRO AREA. FOR NOW WILL JUST INCLUDE VCTS IN UIN OR A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND LEAVE THE OTHER TAFS DRY. THIS FRONT SHOULD SHIFT NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS. MAINLY S-SWLY SURFACE WINDS THIS PERIOD. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: COULD NOT RULE OUT CONVECTION MAKING IT AS FAR SOUTH AS STL TONIGHT, BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE STL TAF VFR AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG WITH SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. SELY SURFACE WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO A S-SWLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, THEN BECOME MORE DUE SWLY LATE TONIGHT. GKS && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES: MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && WFO LSX
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 534 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-121045- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 534 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE. MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON ALL POINTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM LA GRANGE TO THE CONFLUENCE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH DANGEROUS LEVELS OF 105 DEGREES AND GREATER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. GLASS
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
ILZ095-096-111830-
BROWN IL-ADAMS IL-
1247 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015
...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAMS AND BROWN COUNTIES UNTIL
130 PM CDT...
AT 1246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR MENDON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.
LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
QUINCY...MOUNT STERLING...CAMP POINT...MENDON...CLAYTON...GOLDEN...
BUCKHORN...URSA...LIBERTY...VERSAILLES...LORAINE...WOODVILLE...
COATSBURG...MOUND STATION...COLUMBUS...RIPLEY...LA PRAIRIE...
KELLERVILLE...FOWLER AND CHATTON.
THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 172 BETWEEN EXITS 14 AND 19.
THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES SILOAM SPRINGS STATE PARK.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.
&&
LAT...LON 4019 9091 4011 9091 4010 9070 4009 9070
4008 9067 4005 9068 4003 9061 3990 9056
3988 9058 3985 9058 3992 9142 3995 9144
4014 9143 4020 9128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1746Z 268DEG 30KT 4002 9134
GKSThe St Louis radar (KLSX), 152 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:14 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds rolled an unoccupied fifth wheel trailer at Cedar Lakes Campground twice before it landed next to some trees. Also, several large tree limb at the campground where blown down and one large tree was uprooted.
Thunderstorm winds blew down several power lines onto Modesto-Scottville Road.
Up to five inches of rain fell onto already saturated soils causing flash flooding. Numerous roads were flooded including U.S. Highway 24 between Coatsburg and Paloma, the underpass on Illinois Route 94 south of Golden, and up to a foot of water over Illinois Route 61 between Loraine and Golden. In Fall Creek, some homes were flooded and evacuations took place. Several roads were washed out including Columbus Road, about a tenth of a mile west of intersection with North 72nd Street, where Little Mill Creek flows under it. The washout was at least 12 feet deep and 30 feet wide.
Up to four inches of rain fell onto already saturated soils causing flash flooding. Numerous roads were flooded. Also, in Mount Sterling, 10 residents of an apartment building had to be evacuated due to flash flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 599777, 599378, 599389, 599455.