An upper level low pressure system moved through the Mid-South on September 29th, 2015. Slow moving thunderstorms developed in association with the system.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper level low pressure system moved through the Mid-South on September 29th, 2015. Slow moving thunderstorms developed in association with the system. One storm produced flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 29, 9:34 AM CST, 26 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 1034 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 .UPDATE... QUITE A BIT MORE LIGHTNING THAN EXPECTED NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER. A CLUSTER OF STORMS SEEMS TO BE ANCHORED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH ORIENTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES AREA WIDE AND APPROACHING 2 INCHES WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LIKELY A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM WHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES WHERE NEEDED. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIPITATION STRUGGLING TO INCREASE COVERAGE IN THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE SLIGHTLY REDUCED POPS ACCORDINGLY. JAB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ DISCUSSION... UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015/ DISCUSSION... CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY WITH STEADY TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUED TO STREAM NORTHWESTWARD THIS PAST HOUR FROM NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS WERE EITHER CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...CURRENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OF 579DM WILL EVOLVE INTO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT BECOMES PHASED WITH A PASSING MIDWEST SHORTWAVE TODAY. MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THIS FEATURE AND WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/WARM AIR CONVEYOR BELT LINING UP FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE. HOWEVER NOT MUCH IN PRECIPITATION WAS FALLING IN THIS ZONE. FEEL WITH THE HELP OF A CURRENT EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE NEAR JONESBORO ARKANSAS AND A SLOT OF DRY MIDLEVEL AIR...STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY...AND THEN BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW FILLS AND DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR OVERTAKES THE REGION. HAVE KEPT THUNDER ISOLATED TODAY. SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER WITH THE CLOSED LOW AND NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD KEEP HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. FOR TONIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED MIDWEST SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH REACHING THE I-40 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TOMORROW. MOISTURE WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR USHERS IN. NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL BACK NORTHERLY AND INCREASE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS IN THE DELTA BY MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REFRESHING CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER FLOW SHIFTS NORTHERLY BEHIND A NEW CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. EXPECTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S TO MID 50S. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. EXTENDED PERIOD...THE EURO AND GFS HAVE DIFFERENT IDEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVELS. THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE FLOW FASTER AND MORE ZONAL. BOTH SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MIDSOUTH DRY. HAVE TAKEN A CONSERVATIVE BLEND WITH REGARDS TO WARMING TEMPERATURES. JAB && .AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE THIS MORNING IFR AND LIFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY THROUGHOUT THE REGION...YET NOT SURE IF SHOWERS WILL BE AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS. THE SHOWERS COULD ALSO INCLUDE SOME THUNDER AND THIS MAY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY AND LOWER THE CEILINGS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TLSJR && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301000- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 300 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JAB
The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 102 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Slow moving showers and thunderstorms trained over Burnsville for a couple of hours producing flash flooding. Four inches of rain fell in four hours. Two sections of Eastport Street in Burnsville were closed due to 1.5 feet of water covering the roadway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 601113.