Mississippi, 2015

Flash Flood in Mississippi, April 14, 2015

April 14, 2015 · NWS MOB · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Heavy rain caused flooding in southeast Mississippi.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS MOB wrote it up.

Heavy rain caused flooding in southeast Mississippi.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Mobile, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 14, 10:02 AM CST, 28 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 14, 10:02 AM CST, 28 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1102 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

NEXT SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF FORCING IS HEADING TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS MORNING. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS THE
REGION REMAIN QUITE MOISTURE-LADEN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
WELL ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
AFTER 1 PM. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND NORTH OF AN
ATMORE...TO SPANISH FORT...TO WADE LINE THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM.

I HAVE UPDATED 6-HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT BASED ON THE
LATEST INFORMATION...WITH A GENERAL UPWARD TREND IN QPF VALUES ACROSS
THE REGION. THE CONVECTION WE'LL BE SEEING OVER THE NEXT 12- TO
24-HOURS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...WITH MANY OF
THE INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS LIKELY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE THAN 2
INCHES IN AN HOURS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE INDIVIDUAL CONVECTIVE
STORMS...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS GIVEN THIS SORT OF SYNOPTIC SETUP. MORE TO COME THIS
AFTERNOON I'M SURE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...GIVEN EVERYTHING AND THE
SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT.

OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN...REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG HAVE IMPROVED
SUCH THAT THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. SOME AREAS OF
DENSE FOG MAY CONTINUE TO BE SEEN OVER INLAND BAYS/SOUNDS AND WE'LL
ALLOW A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO CONTINUE OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH
LUNCH.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT AND SHOULD BE POSTED TO THE INTERNET. AN
UPDATED SUITE OF TEXT PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.  /BUTTS/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS IN
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES TO FORM OVER MOST
AREAS INCLUDING THE I-10 AND I-65 CORRIDORS. DENSE FOG WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT SLOWLY BY MID MORNING. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

UPDATE...DID AN UPDATE TO CURRENT ZONE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR LOWER PARTS OF SW AL AND ALL AREAS IN NORTHWEST
FLORIDA. VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO 1/4 OF A MILE OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. DENSE FOG SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BY MID MORNING. 32/EE

MARINE...DID AN UPDATE TO THE CURRENT MARINE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS OF AL AND NORTHWE4T
FLORIDA UNTIL 100 PM CDT. VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO ONE MILE OR LESS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY. 32/EE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015/

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...

SHORT TERM [TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...LATEST WV/IR LOOPS
SHOW NEXT SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL IMPULSE OVER EAST TX AND NW GULF
PUSHING NORTHEAST...LEADING TO INCREASED MID LEVEL FORCING AND BETTER
LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF REGION LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BETTER INSTABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY
GENERALLY NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY WILL HELP GENERATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE LOWER PART OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA BY MIDDAY OR
EARLY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING DUE TO
BETTER DAYTIME HEATING AND SFC BASED INSTABILITY SETTING UP FURTHER
INLAND LATER IN THE DAY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER
MOISTURE ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH PWATS NEAR OF SLIGHTLY ABOVE 1.8 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS BY THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF RAIN
AND FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA IN THE PAST 36 TO 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY MOBILE CO AL...THE MAIN CONCERN WITH TODAYS
PATTERN WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIAL FLOODING FOR LOWER PARTS
OF THE CWFA EARLY TODAY THEN SHIFTING FURTHER INLAND BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST MS AND INLAND SW AL GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...WILL REISSUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH
OF THE LOWER AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWFA FOR LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONDITIONS...STILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL AT BEST WITH MAYBE AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...VERY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. AS FOR TEMPS...DUE TO THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
WILL LEAN 2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW THE COOLER MET GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND THE MID 60S TONIGHT. 32/EE

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE HIGH
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AS
NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW SINKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES.
EMBEDDED IN THE DIFFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...A SERIES OF MID
LEVEL IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO ADVANCE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH...EASTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. WITH THAT SAID...MID
LEVEL ENERGY CONTRIBUTES TO MOST OF THE LAYER LIFT ALONG WITH ANY
RAIN COOLED MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SET DOWN BY CONVECTION. DEEP GULF
MOISTURE REMAINS WIDE OPEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES (AVERAGING
~ 1.6 INCHES) BEING WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MID
APRIL...JUST UNDER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THE
POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SOME OF THE RAINS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY.
QUESTION REMAINS...WHEN/WHERE THE AXIS OF THE RAINS EVENTUALLY SET
UP AND DURATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS...RANGING FROM 65 TO 70.
/10

LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...HAVE THE RAIN GEAR HANDY.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN ORIENTATION OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE LOW BEGINS TO OPEN UP A BIT AND SHEAR
OUT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY...THEN
ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD CONTINUES AT TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE
CORRIDOR REMAINS FIXED FOR A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES TO TRACK
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. DEEP GULF MOISTURE PERSISTS AS
WELL...FAVORING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS WHERE
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...THE BEST DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN MUCH
LOWER RAIN CHANCES. GRIDDED TEMPERATURES SHOW LITTLE
VARIABILITY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES...TO UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 OVER THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S. /10

AVIATION...
14.12Z ISSUANCE...MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 15.12Z.
LOWER CEILING AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE MOSTLY IN AND AROUND THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT 6 TO 8 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. 32/EE

MARINE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH MORE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED LATER IN THE WEEK.
OTHERWISE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  66  78  68  77 /  90  60  70  40  70
PENSACOLA   77  67  77  69  77 /  90  60  70  40  60
DESTIN      77  68  76  70  76 /  70  60  70  40  60
EVERGREEN   77  66  79  66  79 /  90  70  70  40  70
WAYNESBORO  77  65  79  65  79 /  90  70  70  40  70
CAMDEN      78  66  79  65  79 /  90  70  70  40  70
CRESTVIEW   79  67  79  66  79 /  80  60  70  40  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ESCAMBIA-LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-UPPER MOBILE-WASHINGTON.

FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL ESCAMBIA-
     COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND ESCAMBIA-INLAND
     OKALOOSA-INLAND SANTA ROSA.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR GEORGE-GREENE-PERRY-
     STONE-WAYNE.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-
     PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-PERDIDO BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY.

&&

NEAR TERM FORECASTER/DSS... MEDLIN
SHORT TERM FORECASTER... BUTTS
LONG TERM FORECASTER... DALY
PSU... BALLARD
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 14, 5:11 AM CST, 5 hours 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-151200-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
611 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN BEGINNING LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 CORRIDOR WILL SEE THE HEAVY RAIN BY LATE
THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THEN SPREADING FURTHER INLAND
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES COUNTY WIDE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS BEEN REISSUED FOR
LOWER AND WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND ALL AREAS IN
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FROM 10 AM CDT
THIS MORNING THROUGH 1 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE EXTENDED INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF BEACHES OF ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA WILL CONINUE ON WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675-151200-
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
PERDIDO BAY-PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
611 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
WATERS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

The radar

The Mobile radar (KMOB), 60 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:28 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Stone

When
April 14, 10:30 AM CST to 2:00 PM CST
Where
Stone County, 3.81 mi E of Ramsey Spgs to 6.88 mi ENE of Ramsey Spgs
Cause
Heavy Rain
Reported by
Emergency Manager
Coordinates
30.775, -88.856

Heavy rain caused water to cover roadways in Stone County.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Mississippi in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, April 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 572605.