A surface low formed over Texas, then quickly moved east during the day and overnight, pushing off the Carolina coast by the morning of the 17th. A very cold airmass in place from retreating Arctic high pressure resulted in higher than average snow ratios, between 12:1 and 15:1.
Every event with a place to put it; 16 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A surface low formed over Texas, then quickly moved east during the day and overnight, pushing off the Carolina coast by the morning of the 17th. A very cold airmass in place from retreating Arctic high pressure resulted in higher than average snow ratios, between 12:1 and 15:1. Eastern Maryland received the highest amounts, with lower amounts to the west.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 16, 10:25 AM EST, 3 hours 35 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1025 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL TRACK INTO THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT...MOVING
OUT TO SEA TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY...WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WARMING TEMPS AND DIMINISHED WINDS THIS MORNING HAVE LED TO THE
WIND CHILL PRODUCTS BEING CANCELLED EVERYWHERE.
OUR ATTENTION TURNS NOW TO AN APPROACHING LOW FROM THE GULF
COAST...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO ALL OF THE
AREA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WX ADV REMAIN AS IS FOR THE
TIME BEING. REALLY DRY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ERODED FOR ANY MEASURABLE PCPN. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...BRINGING THE START TIME 1-2 HOURS LATER.
STILL EXPECTING TO REACH THE SW CORNER OF THE CWA FIRST...THEN PUSH
EAST AND GRADUALLY NORTH HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
COLD ENOUGH SO ONLY EXPECTING ALL SNOW EVENT. STILL THINKING UP TO
2" FM ALBE TO PENDLETON BY SUNSET...WITH LESS THAN HALF AN INCH TO
THE NORTH AND EAST PRIOR TO 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DID NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING CONCERNING SNOW
TOTALS FOR TONIGHT...ONLY ADJUSTED TIMING OF PCPN MOVING IN. STILL
THINKING THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 03-09Z TIME
FRAME...THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY IN THE W LATE TNGT/AFTR SUNRISE
IN THE E. W/ LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THERE WL BE PLENTY
OF COLD AIR IN THE COLUMN...WHICH IS WHY SNOW IS THE ONLY CONCERN.
GIVEN HOW COLD THE AIR WL BE LIQUID/SNOW RATIO WL BE HIGHER THAN
THE STANDARD 10:1...PERHAPS 15:1 OR HIGHER. THE LIMITING FACTOR ON
TOTALS WL BE THE SPEED W/ WHICH THE LOW TRANSITS THE RGN.
STILL HIGHLY CONFIDENT OF THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS ACROSS CENTRAL
VA...WITH TOTALS LOWERING HEADING NORTH TO THE MASON-DIXON LINE.
THIS IS ALSO THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREA OF REACHING WARNING LEVEL
SNOW TOTALS. TO THE NORTH...A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY ON SNOW
TOTALS...WITH A QUESTION OF JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED
NORTH...AND THUS ERODING PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED DRY AIR. HAVE NOT
CHANGED TOTALS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TREND DURING THE DAY AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS AS NEEDED.
WINDS WL BE LGTR TNGT THAN THE PAST TWO NGTS...BUT IT WL RMN COLD
W/ LOWS IN THE TEENS. ONLY DOWNTOWN DC COULD TOP 20 DEGS.
PCPN SHOULD BE ENDING IN THE WRN PART OF THE RGN B4 SUNRISE...AND
THAT MAY BE THE CASE FURTHER E AS WELL...BUT FOR THE MOMENT WL LV
CHC W/LKLY E FOR THE MRNG. ANY ADTNL ACCUMS WOULD BE LGT.
TUE WL SEE VARYING AMTS OF SC/CU. HIGHS IN THE MU20S...L30S IN DC.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO ERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AND LINGERS OVER THE NERN CONUS INTO FRIDAY. UPR TROUGH
AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AHEAD OF THIS AXIS...PVA AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA. THESE LOOK TO BE LIGHT IN NATURE...BUT WITH
SUBFREEZING MAX TEMPS (MID TO UPR 20S...AROUND 30F FOR BALT-WASH
METRO) ANYTHING THAT FALLS WILL STICK SO LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS COULD
MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS EVENING COMMUTE WEDNESDAY.
REST OF THE WORK WEEK EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS.
MIN TEMPS GIVEN ANTICIPATED SNOW COVER. MIXING AND CLOUDS LINGER
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MINS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS. MIXING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD KEEP AMBIENT TEMPS POSITIVE. HOWEVER...10 TO 20 MPH
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MORE WIND CHILL HEADLINES...WARNING POSSIBLE
FOR HIGHER TERRAIN...ADVISORY ENTIRE REST OF THE AREA. SFC HIGH
CENTER SHIFTS EAST OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. DECOUPLING AND CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY MORNING THE LOWEST AMBIENT TEMPS OF THE WEEK.
AREAS THAT DECOUPLE AT RISK FOR SUBZERO MIN TEMPS. MIXING CURRENTLY
EXPECTED OVER NERN HALF WHERE MINS LOOK TO BE MORE POSITIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO 10F.
UPSLOPE SNOW COMES IN WAVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD AN
ADVISORY BE NEEDED TUESDAY IT MAY EXTEND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...WITH ALL THE COLD AIR THE GREAT LAKES ARE ONLY INCREASING
THEIR ICE COVER...WITH LESS MOISTURE TO RING OUT OROGRAPHICALLY.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE 00Z ECMWF TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST/ERN GREAT LAKES SATURDAY/SUNDAY. I AM INTRIGUED BY THE 00Z
GFS WHICH HAS A ZONAL JET STREAK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NRN
MID-ATLANTIC. TIME AND AGAIN THE GFS PRESENTS THIS FOR A RUN OR TWO
IN THE WINTER AND THEN LATER RUNS PRODUCE A STORM SYSTEM...USUALLY A
NOTABLE ONE. PERHAPS THE GFS WILL COME IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF...BUT
FOR NOW WILL NOT MENTION THE CLASSIC "HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND" WHICH IS A VALID ANALYSIS OF THE 00Z GFS SFC PATTERN.
AS OF NOW CHANCES FOR SNOW SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN OR SNOW
FOR SUNDAY...THEN POPS TAPER OFF SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MOVING IN AFTER 00Z WITH
THE PCPN. EXPECTING PERIODS IFR OR LOWER WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...MAINLY 03-09Z TIME PERIOD.
LINGERING SNOW/MVFR CIGS OVER EASTERN TAF SITES TUES MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTN. WINDS SHIFT
FROM THE EAST TO W-NW TUES AFTN BEHIND THE PASSING LOW.
WLY/NWLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VFR PREVAILS
REST OF THE WEEK EXCEPT FOR DURING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW
WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS TONIGHT THRU TUES MORNING.
NWLY FLOW AOB 10 KT TUESDAY NIGHT. SCA FOR GUSTY WLY/NWLY FLOW
LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LINGERS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WATER LEVELS RMN XTRMLY LOW ON NWRLY WINDS W/ BLOWOUT TIDES ON THE
WRN SIDE OF THE CHES BAY AND THE TIDAL PTMC. LVLS SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TODAY.
&&
.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TODAY FOR OUR THREE MAIN CLIMATE
SITES:
RECORD LOW MIN...FEB 16:
BWI...5 (1905)
DCA...5 (1905)
IAD...11 (1963/1987)
RECORD LOW MAX...FEB 16:
BWI...18 (1904)
DCA...18 (1904)
IAD...22 (2003)
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ004>006-011-013-014-016>018-503>508.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MDZ003-501-502.
VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR VAZ025>027-029-
030-503-504-507-508.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ054.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR VAZ028-031-036>040-050>053-055>057-501-502-
505-506.
WV...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY FOR WVZ055-501-502-
505-506.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ050>052-503-504.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR WVZ053.
MARINE...NONE.
&&HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 953 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ011-013-014-016>018-508-VAZ052>057-171000- CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD- CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD- TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA- PATAPSCO RIVER INCLUDING BALTIMORE HARBOR- CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD-EASTERN BAY- CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER- PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD- TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND-DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES- ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-SOUTHEAST HARFORD- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA- KING GEORGE- 953 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY...TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER...AND ADJACENT COUNTIES IN CENTRAL MARYLAND AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA AS WELL AS THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW REMAINS IN EFFECT TONIGHT. SEE WBCWSWLWX FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MDZ003>006-501>507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501>508-WVZ050>053- 055-501>506-171000- WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE- EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY- NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY- NORTHWEST HOWARD-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-NORTHWEST HARFORD- AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE- NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-ORANGE-CULPEPER- NORTHERN FAUQUIER-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND- EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN LOUDOUN-EASTERN LOUDOUN- NORTHERN VA BLUE RIDGE-CENTRAL VA BLUE RIDGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN- BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT- WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON- EASTERN PENDLETON- 953 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA... NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AND CENTRAL AND WESTERN MARYLAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GARRETT COUNTY. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN MARYLAND AND PORTIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. SEE WBCWSWLWX FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WITH WIND CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 winter weather, 6 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotter near Huntington reported a snow total of 6.5 inches. Between 5.0 and 6.5 inches was reported by multiple sources across the county.
Spotter near Dentsville reported a snow total of 6.8 inches. Between 6.0 and 6.8 inches was reported by multiple sources across the county.
Public spotter near Oakville reported a snow total of 9.0 inches. Between 6.0 and 9.0 inches was reported by multiple sources across the county.
Spotter near the Edgewater reported a snow total of 5.5 inches. Between 3.0 and 5.5 inches was reported by multiple sources across the county.
Spotter near Dundalk reported a snow total of 5.0 inches. Between 3.0 and 5.5 inches was reported by multiple sources across the southern portions of the county.
Public spotter near Bowie reported a snow total of 7.0 inches. Between 3.0 and 7.0 inches was reported by multiple sources across the county.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
Between 2.0 and 4.0 inches of snow was reported by multiple sources.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Maryland in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Maryland, February 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 561602, 561603, 561605, 561600, 561601, 561604, 561607, 561616, 561606, 561608, 561609, 561610, 561611, 561612, 561613, 561614.