An outflow boundary drifted in Central Louisiana during the early morning hours of the 18th from thunderstorms in North Louisiana. Thunderstorms developed and trained across Central Louisiana along the old boundary during the mid morning hours producing flooding in Rapides Parish.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LCH wrote it up.
An outflow boundary drifted in Central Louisiana during the early morning hours of the 18th from thunderstorms in North Louisiana. Thunderstorms developed and trained across Central Louisiana along the old boundary during the mid morning hours producing flooding in Rapides Parish.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lake Charles, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 18, 9:04 AM CST, 1 hour 56 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1004 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 .DISCUSSION... SLOW MOVING MCS ACROSS E TX/C LA WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. FOR THIS...ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TYLER & N JASPER/NEWTON COUNTIES IN SE TX...AND VERNON/RAPIDES/AVOYELLES PARISHES IN C LA. HIGH POPS REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FROM THE I-10 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. FURTHER SOUTH SOUTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR...POPS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF ANY ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY GENERATE PRECIP LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THIS REGION. DML && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/ DISCUSSION... FOR THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE. AVIATION... ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND STREAM NORTH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTH LA...AND FARTHER WEST TO THE NW OF HOUSTON OVER SE TX. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM LIFR AT KAEX TO VFR AT KLCH. PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TODAY...WITH THE TEMPO AND PREVAILING THUNDER IN THE TAFS REPRESENTING A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR RUNS AND THE ONLINE SPC 4KM WRF...WHICH DEPICT THE ACTIVITY BOTH TO THE NORTH AND WEST EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO THE AREA EITHER LATER THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL WITH CU GENERALLY IN THE 1500 TO 3500 FT RANGE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS NOT AS STRONG AND/OR GUSTY AS YESTERDAY. 13 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/ SYNOPSIS... LATEST UA ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING WITH A BROAD TROF OVER THE WRN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE. A PAIR OF LOWS WERE SPINNING WITHIN THE TROF...ONE CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS AND ANOTHER ENTERING CA. MEANWHILE...A PERTURBATION OVERRIDING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND FROM LAST NIGHTS MCV WAS PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS NRN LA WITH SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING DOWN TO OUR NRN TIER OF PARISHES AND COUNTIES. AT THE SFC...S-SE WINDS AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRES OFF THE SE ATL COAST CONTINUE TO STREAM GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. DISCUSSION... MAIN FCST CONCERN IN THE NEAR TERM IS RAIN CHCS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION ACRS NRN LA INTO E TX WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AS SLY/SWLY WINDS SPREAD ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. LIFT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW LVL FORCING ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY ACRS CNTL LA AND THIS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE PRECIPITATION ACRS NRN/CNTL LA. RECENT HRRR AND NAM PROGS INDICATE CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING BETWEEN 1.8-2.0 INCHES OVER THE AREA...MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO PRODUCE EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NRN TIER OF ZONES. HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NOW WITH FLOODING EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LOCALIZED IN NATURE...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR POSSIBLY ISSUANCE LATER THIS MORNING. RAIN CHCS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY...BECOMING STALLED NW-SE ACRS NERN TX INTO CNTL LA. THE PERSISTENT MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL AGAIN BRING ABOUT SCT CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY...EXPECT THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE CONCENTRATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS CNTL LA. WEAK FLAT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALOFT BY MIDWEEK...HELPING TO REDUCE BUT NOT ELIMINATE SHOWER COVERAGE AND CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE COAST FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY RETREAT BACK NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP RAIN CHCS CLOSER TO 20-30 PERCENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH POPS EASING BACK INTO THE SCT RANGE BY SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE GETS SHIFTED BACK TO THE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THE THREAT FOR ANY ORGANIZED SVR STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...A FEW ISLTD STORMS COULD PULSE TO STRONG OR MARGINALLY SVR LIMITS DURING THE AFTN WHEN MAX HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED INSTABILITY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL STILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING OR URBAN AREAS. LITTLE VARIATION IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND WITH MAIN IMPACTS TO DAILY TEMPS FROM CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT LOWS FROM AROUND 70 INTO THE MIDDLE 70S WHICH IS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABV NORMAL WHILE HIGHS WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MIDDLE 80S. 24 MARINE... MODT SELY WINDS WERE OCCURRING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS EARLY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO ELEVATED WINDS ALOFT AND INFLOW INTO COMPLEX OF STORMS ACRS NRN LA INTO SE TX. SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE APPROACHED 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. WITH THIS IN MIND...ADDED EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE TO CWF FOR EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A LT TO MODT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRES REMAINS EAST OF THE REGION. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CROSSES THE REGION. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE ISLTD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT. 24 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AEX 84 68 86 70 / 80 30 40 30 LCH 86 72 86 73 / 50 20 30 20 LFT 87 72 86 72 / 40 20 50 20 BPT 87 75 86 74 / 50 20 20 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ027>029. TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ180-259-260. GM...NONE. && PUBLIC...04
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 536 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 LAZ027>033-041>045-052>055-073-074-TXZ180-201-215-216-259>262- 191045- VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY- CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN- VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-WEST CAMERON- EAST CAMERON-TYLER-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-NORTHERN JASPER- NORTHERN NEWTON-SOUTHERN JASPER-SOUTHERN NEWTON- 536 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...EAST CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE INTERACTING WITH A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH RATES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN URBAN...LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IN ADDITION...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED. OVERALL...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN ON MONDAY BUT CONVECTION WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-191045- SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM- 536 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BY MIDDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. 24
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1107 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1040 AM FLASH FLOOD 1 NE ALEXANDRIA 31.30N 92.45W
05/18/2015 RAPIDES LA PUBLIC
PUBLIC REPORTED MINOR FLOODING ON JACKSON ST
&&
TWHThe Ft Polk radar (KPOE), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:58 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding from thunderstorms closed Ida Wells and Lee Bridge Roads around Holloway and also flooded Jackson Street and other roads in Alexandria.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Louisiana in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Louisiana, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 573089.