Flash Flooding in New York, May 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
353 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR EAST AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...PRODUCING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. PW VALUES ON THE 12Z
KBUF SOUNDING WERE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND CURRENT MESOANALYSIS
SUGGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS PUSHED THESE VALUES TO NEAR 1.7
INCHES. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER OH AND NW PA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS THIS WAVE RIDES UP AND
AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS THIS EVENING...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND INTO THE FINGER LAKES
REGION. MEAN STORM MOTION BASED ON CLOUD LAYER WINDS SUGGEST EAST-
NORTHEAST MOVING STORMS AROUND 20 KNOTS...WHICH IS WHAT ONGOING
STORMS SEEM TO BE OBEYING. GIVEN THIS FORWARD MOTION...DESPITE NEAR-
RECORD PW VALUES...WIDESPREAD INTENSE RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...GIVEN BACK-BUILDING STORM VECTORS ARE NEAR-STATIONARY...IF
ANY STORMS DO BEGIN TO BACK-BUILD LATER THIS EVENING...THIS COULD
RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO. WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN
NEW YORK...ANY REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT
FALL QUICKLY WITH REMAIN LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY TUESDAY CLEARING WILL WORK ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST..AS WILL COOLER 850MB TEMPS...DROPPING INTO THE +2
TO +4 C RANGE. THUS TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL RECOVER INTO
THE LOW-MID 60S TUESDAY MORNING...BEFORE DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE
50S BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO RECOVER A LITTLE LONGER
BEFORE THE COOLER AIR ARRIVES...AND THUS SOME LOW 70S ARE LIKELY
THERE BEFORE COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF ANY LINGERING EARLY DAY SHOWERS IN THE NORTH COUNTRY...TUESDAY
SHOULD BE DRY AND TURNING SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO NEAR -4C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FALL WELL INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS
THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO. THE FROST RISK LOOKS LIMITED FOR THE COLDEST SPOTS AS
THERE WILL BE SOME GRADIENT AND THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH ALONG WITH SOME LAKE-ENHANCED
CLOUD COVER.

SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR
STARTS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY...
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S.

SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT CHANCES OF
FROST FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS IF WINDS CAN DROP OFF ENOUGH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING THE AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE A BIT WITH
HIGHS THURSDAY INTO THE 60S...BUT STILL A COOL THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS PERIOD STARTS WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL USHER IN A DRIER BUT COOLER AIR
MASS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT
SATURDAY MORNING WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS.

THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY...SETTING UP A RETURN FLOW
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SIGNAL A RETURN TO WARMER
CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF A LINE FROM KBUF TO KROC TO KART THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS KEEP
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT MOST TAF SITES. KJHW HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN A HEAVIER
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND AND FINGER LAKES REGION...WHERE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FALLS
DURING THE DAY TODAY...THIS INCLUDES KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
TONIGHT/TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND WAVE ACTION INTO
TUESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LAKE ERIE
NEARSHORES COVERING TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH LOW WIND AND WAVE ACTION.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ040-
         041.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...TMA
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
524 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-190930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
524 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
MAY BRING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-190930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
524 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

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