Hail and Damaging Winds in Kentucky, June 25, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY. CURRENT VISIBLE SHOT
ACROSS THE AREA SHOWS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS HAS ALLOWED SOME INCREASED HEATING DESPITE THE CAP
 AND LACK OF INSTABILITY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. IF THE BREAKS
AND INCREASED HEATING CONTINUES...SOME CONVECTION MAY BEGIN TO
DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE ISSUE HERE IS IF THE CAP
AT 800MB IS BROKEN. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LESS STELLAR
HINTING AT CONVECTION ALL AFTERNOON BUT TO NO AVAIL. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM IN SOUTHERN IN AND WESTERN KY SO
WILL INTRODUCE SOME POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY AFTER 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...THE NEXT CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND
BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO KY. THE FORMATION OF THIS AREA
SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL KY OR EVEN A BIT FURTHER WEST. IT IS WORTHMENTIONING
THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR PICKING OUT THIS
DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH WITH TRENDS AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES...WILL BE INTRODUCING LIKELY POPS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z BUT DEVELOPMENT AND A STARTING POINT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS A BIT OF A TOUGH CALL.

TOMORROW...A STRONGER WAVE DIPS SOUTH INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
CROSSING OVER THE RIDGE OUT WEST AND MAKES FOR AN INTERESTING
SITUATION FOR KY ON FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
THIS...THE WARM FRONT WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURGE PUSHES
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THIS SHOULD BE STRONG CONVECTION
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MAY
HINDER THIS A BIT BUT THE WARM AND MOIST AIR SURGING FROM THE
SOUTH SHOULD MAKE FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT QUITE
INTERESTING. WILL MENTION THIS PERIOD IN THE HWO AS THIS WILL
BEGIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. WE FIND OURSELVES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN WITH A MEAN EAST CONUS TROUGH AND WEST CONUS
RIDGE. AS SUCH WE CAN EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND IN GENERAL AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST...BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS OUT A REINFORCING TROUGH OVER OUR REGION BY
MONDAY WHICH ONLY GRADUALLY LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST WINDOW. BY THEN THERE IS A TENDENCY FOR THE PATTERN TO
BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED AND A BIT MORE ZONALLY ORIENTED AS WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE SHIFTS OUT INTO THE PACIFIC AND ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW WILL AID IN
DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD. THIS RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW WILL
RIDE UP THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A TRAILING COLD
FRONT ADVANCING ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION AT THE START OF THE WEEK...LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THIS PATTERN WILL ENSURE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS MAINLY FALLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING WHEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. WILL INTRODUCE SOME VCTS AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT AND THEN BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER
04Z TO MOST AREAS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM ALONG A
BOUNDARY. A BRIEF PERIOD SHOULD ENSUE INTO THE AFTER DAWN HOURS
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY REDEVELOPS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...RAY/DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
414 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-261100-
FLEMING-MONTGOMERY-BATH-ROWAN-ESTILL-POWELL-MENIFEE-ROCKCASTLE-
JACKSON-PULASKI-LAUREL-WAYNE-MCCREARY-WHITLEY-KNOX-BELL-HARLAN-
ELLIOTT-MORGAN-JOHNSON-WOLFE-MAGOFFIN-FLOYD-LEE-BREATHITT-KNOTT-
OWSLEY-PERRY-CLAY-LESLIE-LETCHER-MARTIN-PIKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FLEMINGSBURG...CAMARGO...
JEFFERSONVILLE...MOUNT STERLING...OWINGSVILLE...MOREHEAD...
IRVINE...RAVENNA...CLAY CITY...STANTON...FRENCHBURG...BRODHEAD...
MOUNT VERNON...MCKEE...ANNVILLE...BURNSIDE...SOMERSET...LONDON...
MONTICELLO...STEARNS...WHITLEY CITY...CORBIN...WILLIAMSBURG...
BARBOURVILLE...MIDDLESBORO...PINEVILLE...CUMBERLAND...HARLAN...
SANDY HOOK...WEST LIBERTY...PAINTSVILLE...CAMPTON...
SALYERSVILLE...PRESTONSBURG...WHEELWRIGHT...BEATTYVILLE...
JACKSON...HINDMAN...PIPPA PASSES...BOONEVILLE...HAZARD...
MANCHESTER...HYDEN...JENKINS...WHITESBURG...INEZ...COAL RUN...
ELKHORN CITY...PIKEVILLE...SOUTH WILLIAMSON
414 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME OF
THE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT ANY STORM DAMAGE THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

KAS/SHALLENBERGER/RAY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
604 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

KYZ114-116-252230-
CLAY-OWSLEY-
604 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CLAY AND OWSLEY COUNTIES...

AT 603 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER NATHANTON...OR 11
MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOONEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LUCKY FORK...SOURWOOD...CONKLING...TEGES...TAFF...BLAKE...HENSLEY...
ONEIDA...ISLAND CITY...THOMAS...SEXTONS CREEK...GOBBARD...BARCREEK...
STURGEON...MISTLETOE...NEWFOUND...TRIXIE...AMMIE...SETH AND
SEBASTIAN.

&&

LAT...LON 3732 8384 3733 8383 3733 8379 3734 8378
      3739 8382 3743 8381 3736 8354 3733 8354
      3733 8355 3732 8355 3720 8361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2203Z 289DEG 23KT 3735 8381

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