A long duration winter storm (primarily freezing rain) event began during the evening of Nov 26th and continued into Friday Nov 27th. There was a brief 6-8 hour break in the freezing rain on Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A long duration winter storm (primarily freezing rain) event began during the evening of Nov 26th and continued into Friday Nov 27th. There was a brief 6-8 hour break in the freezing rain on Friday afternoon into Friday evening. However another round of freezing rain developed and impacted much of the area on Saturday November 28th and continued through Saturday night into early Sunday morning November 29th. Light rain and freezing rain was reported on Sunday with more widespread rain, freezing rain and snow reported across north central Kansas Sunday night into early Monday morning on the 30th. For the sake of clarity this event will be split into 3 episodes, the initial freezing rain and sleet episode that occurred Thursday night through Friday and the longer, larger ice storm episode that occurred late Friday night into early Sunday morning and the final bout of freezing rain that occurred late Sunday night into early Monday.
This episode deals with the first bout of freezing rain and sleet that occurred Thursday night into Friday.
All told, many areas of northeast Kansas received anywhere from one quarter to three quarters of an inch of ice on flat surfaces and on trees and power lines. The cumulative impacts of repeated bouts of freezing precipitation began to cause tree limbs to break, power lines to fall and associated power outages Saturday through Sunday mainly across Morris, Wabaunsee, Pottawatomie, Riley, Dickinson, Clay, Geary and Lyon counties where the greatest impacts were reported by Sunday into Monday. Thousands of residents of those counties were without power by Sunday morning. Total measured ice accumulations from official ASOS sensors for the storm period defined as 6pm Thursday through 6am Monday included: Salina (proxy for Dickinson CO) 0.59, Manhattan 0.49, Topeka Forbes Field 0.47, Emporia 0.77, Lawrence 0.22, Falls City, NE 0.32 Concordia 0.38. Those totals reflect a 4 day ice accumulation amount as reported by the ice sensors on ASOS sites. NWS Topeka issued 3 separate Warnings for this event including one ice storm warning on Sunday morning.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 26, 5:29 PM CST, 31 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Topeka KS 529 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 321 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 Cold front has swept through the area earlier this morning as high pressure builds into the central plains. Southwest flow aloft has allowed warm temperatures and moisture to persist over this surface frontal boundary. An area of light to moderate rain has developed along and behind the front where lift has been maximized. Sub freezing air located to the north and west has finally pushed into north central KS. This is where a change over to freezing rain is possible through the afternoon. The freezing line is forecast to gradually move southeastward through the evening and overnight. There seems to be a break in the precip or more showery activity, but the regional radar has begun to fill in across the panhandles and southwest KS. This area of precip is forecast to move northeastward into this sub freezing air where icing is expected. At first the roads might not be cold enough for accumulation, but overtime the roads will likely start to freeze. Of course the bridges and overpasses will freeze over first. The best time for freezing rain appears to be later this evening and overnight. Overnight the models agree on a decent amount of qpf amounting to about 0.2 to 0.3" of ice accumulation. This may be enough to cause isolated power outages especially given the possible wind gusts. The roads will likely become hazardous shortly after the freezing temperatures arrive. There may be a lull in the precip after midnight before yet another round of lift moves in from the southwest tomorrow morning. Forecast soundings are indicating the cold air may be slightly deeper than anticipated. This may cause more sleet to mix with freezing rain regardless of the warm nose aloft. By sunrise the freezing line will be somewhere near Emporia to Topeka, and continues across most areas by mid day Friday. The models are indicating that the precip stays confined to areas along and south of I-70. Light icing could be possible in these areas if freezing rain remains the predominate precip type. Although as we move into tomorrow cooler temps aloft and in the lower levels introduce the potential for more of a mix of snow and sleet mix. Amounts in this case would amount to very little, but could cause road issues. .LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday) Issued at 321 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 The weekend periods' forecast continues to bring uncertainty in specifics but at least some potential for additional periodic wintry precipitation. Southwest upper flow continues to keep at least some moisture content in the atmosphere with the upper low making slow progress into the Plains early next week. Depth and quality of the moisture is still hard to narrow down, with most guidance showing at least some periods where depth up into the ice crystal zone will be difficult to come by. Forcing for strong ascent is also not readily apparent, though fairly steady but weak isentropic upglide is present for many periods behind the old high. At this point the greater chances for more widespread precipitation look to come Sunday night into Monday as a shortwave rotates around the ejecting low, but the still rather moist low layers and persistent though modest ascent keep at least small chance for precip Friday night through Sunday. Could easily see drizzle or freezing drizzle dominate precip types most of these periods, but the inclusion of freezing rain gets the message across of potential problems without an excessively complicated forecast. Remainder of the forecast continues to look benign. Pacific high pressure builds in from the west for near normal temps. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening) Issued at 528 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 Difficult forecast determining timing of FZRA/PL and when ceilings will drop to IFR. Widespread showers continue across the area and are expected to remain throughout the period. Believe freezing rain and sleet will start at MHK neat 01Z, with ceilings lowering to IFR during heavier precipitation. TOP/FOE will see this wintry mix near 08Z, with ceilings lowering earlier. Current thinking is precip type will remain a mix at sites through the end of the period, but will need to monitor trends closely. && .TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ010>012- 022>024-035>038-054. Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday for KSZ026-039-040-055-056-058-059. Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for KSZ008-009-020- 021-034. && SHORT TERM...Sanders LONG TERM...65 AVIATION...Heller
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 345 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-272145- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 345 PM CST THU NOV 26 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...REACHING THE ENTIRE AREA BY DAWN. THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN AN AREA FROM ABILENE TO MARYSVILLE TO HIAWATHA TO EMPORIA...WHERE AROUND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH IS POSSIBLE. AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE SHOULD BE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH. LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE OF AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. THE CHANCES FOR LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY ENDING MONDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT THE TYPE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FALLING AND ANY ACCUMULATIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TOPEKA. && MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
COOP observer estimated 0.30 of ice accumulated on flat surfaces around 9am on Friday November 27th. Location was in Beattie in Marshall County.
Law Enforcement reported ice on roads county wide and provided a rough estimate of anywhere from .20 to .30 of ice on elevated surfaces including vehicles. Estimate of ice on vehicle was from Seneca.
Law Enforcement reported ice on roads county wide and provided a rough estimate of anywhere from .20 to .30 of ice on elevated surfaces including vehicles. Estimate of ice on vehicle was from Hiawatha.
COOP observer measured 0.38 of ice from freezing rain in Blaine.
COOP observer measured 0.25 of ice from freezing rain in Riley Friday morning.
COOP observer estimated .2 to .3 of ice from freezing rain in Alta Vista Friday morning.
COOP observer estimated .25 of ice from freezing rain in White City Friday morning.
Estimated one quarter inch of ice on flat surfaces including vehicle 6 NE of Talmage in Dickinson County Friday morning.
EM from Ft. Riley army base reported an estimated quarter inch of ice accumulation on flat surfaces including vehicles from area of base that is within Geary County just east of Junction City.
Estimated one quarter inch of ice on flat surfaces including vehicles in Americus in northwest Lyon County as of 9am Friday.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 603293, 603294, 603295, 603296, 603297, 603298, 603300, 603301, 603303, 603302.