Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 25 to 26, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
628 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

19Z SURFACE OBS AND RADAR DATA SHOW THE COOL FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KS FROM NEAR MINNEAPOLIS TO NEAR HOLTON. PROFILER AND SURFACE WINDS
SUGGEST THERE IS ONLY WEAK IF ANY CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
DUE TO VEER WINDS FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 19Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AS SHIFTED A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. THERE ARE A COUPLE
SUBTLE VORT MAXIMUM IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM, ONE OF WHICH DRIFTING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEB HAS KEEP SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION GOING THIS
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THE MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE
BETTER TIMING FOR PRECIP TO BE DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE.
THAT IS NOT TO SAY AN ISOLATED STORM WILL NOT DEVELOP IN THE WARM
SECTOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. BUT WITH NO REAL FORCING AND NO REAL
LIFT TO SPEAK OF, IT APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY EVENT AT THIS
TIME. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
LARGE AMOUNTS OF CAPE IN THE WARM MOIST AIRMASS. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN THE WARM SECTOR IS RELATIVELY WEAK WHILE IT IS PROGGED TO
IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 KTS
POST FRONTAL. WITH THIS IN MIND, THINK SOME KIND OF MCS IS THE MOST
LIKELY STORM MODE. SO LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY SOME STRONG WINDS REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN. MODELS CONTINUE
TO PUT THE AXIS OF HEAVIES RAINFALL OVER NORTHEAST KS. THIS IS WHERE
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SO WILL KEEP IT GOING AS IS.

LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH A COLD POOL FROM THE
POTENTIAL MCS PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THE MIN TEMP
FORECAST RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS TO THE
LOWER 70S OVER EAST CENTRAL KS. FOR FRIDAY, THE LARGE SCALE FORCING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE MORNING. THINK THAT THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. MODELS HAVE
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS AROUND 80 AND IN THE LOWER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

UPPER WAVE'S PASSING EARLIER IN THE DAY SHOULD KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT
DRY. STILL HARD TO COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANY STORM CHANCE SATURDAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THOUGH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING DIURNAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT BEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND
COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A MUCH MODIFIED COLD FRONT SLIDES SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING OVER
THE ROCKIES, ANY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE
AND SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED AND ENDING BY LATE SUNDAY
EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES AND FRONT PASSES. HAVE INCREASED TEMPS
A BIT SUNDAY WITH DECENT THERMAL RIDGE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDWEEK WITH SOME MID LEVEL
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RESULTING. WILL LEAVE SOME SMALLER CHANCES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THIS WITH DEEP MOISTURE AGAIN HARD TO
COME BY. GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING VARYING TIMING ON THE NEXT LARGER-
SCALE WAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND AM ONLY COMFORTABLE WITH SMALL POPS
FOR THESE PERIODS AS WELL. LIMITED ADVECTIONS IN THIS REGIME KEEP
EXPECTED TEMPERATURES RATHER UNIFORM AND NOT FAR FROM NORMAL, OF
COURSE BARRING PERSISTENT DAYTIME PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAFS, A BOUNDARY WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES, IN
WHICH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING,
HOWEVER ANOTHER COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM OVER NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
FAR WEST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND, ONLY HAVE VCTS AT THIS
TIME. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS COMPLEX, WITH SOME MODELS
SUGGESTING EVEN SOME IFR CIGS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD EXIT FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ009>012-024-026.

&&

SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...HENNECKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
350 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-262100-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
350 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A STALL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER THE BETTER STORM CHANCES WILL BE OVERNIGHT. A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

INITIALLY STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...BUT AS THE NOT PROGRESSES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG
WITH LARGE HAIL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

WOLTERS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
956 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ020-260330-
CLOUD-
956 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTY UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

AT 955 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SIMPSON...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIMPSON AND GLASCO.

LAT...LON 3944 9793 3946 9777 3931 9775 3931 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 263DEG 19KT 3934 9797

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1117 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ010-011-260445-
MARSHALL-NEMAHA-
1117 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN NEMAHA AND NORTHEASTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

AT 1116 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF BERN TO
NEAR BEATTIE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SABETHA...SENECA...CENTRALIA...AXTELL...BEATTIE...BERN...
VERMILLION...ONEIDA AND BAILEYVILLE.

LAT...LON 3986 9579 3962 9626 3987 9647 4000 9622
      4000 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 294DEG 23KT 3997 9607 3980 9640

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1154 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ023-260515-
POTTAWATOMIE-
1154 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE COUNTY
UNTIL 1215 AM CDT...

AT 1154 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR OLSBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTMORELAND AND OLSBURG.

LAT...LON 3946 9664 3951 9652 3933 9630 3925 9651
TIME...MOT...LOC 0454Z 327DEG 25KT 3942 9653

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1158 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

KSZ036-260530-
GEARY-
1158 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GEARY COUNTY UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

AT 1157 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6
MILES SOUTH OF GRANDVIEW PLAZA...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN GEARY COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 295 AND 296...AND
BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 314 AND 316.

LAT...LON 3907 9650 3887 9650 3887 9693 3899 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 0457Z 264DEG 33KT 3893 9678

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