Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 11, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
337 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Latest surface analysis at 19Z had a frontal boundary from near CNK
to near LBL. Warm front and surface low was located in southern
Nebraska and northern Missouri. Latest mesoanalysis shows 700 mb
temperatures around 11C over most of the cwa. MLCAPE ranges from
1500-2500 J/kg this afternoon with effective shear of 25 to 35 kts.
Convergence along the front will continue through the late afternoon
and evening hours. There is a mid level wave moving across Nebraska
which will aid in scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon
and evening. Short range high resolution models show scattered
thunderstorms developing over the next few hours along the front as
it moves across the cwa. Low level jet tonight will be parallel to
the front tonight with the theta advection northeast into Missouri
and Iowa. Potential for locally heavy rainfall is still there with
precipitable water values ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 inches. Lows
tonight will fall into the 50s in the north central to the upper 60s
southeast of I-35.

Friday, the Front looks to focus across southern Kansas and then
move slightly northward to near Burlington and Garnett in the
afternoon hours. Showers and thunderstorms will focus along the
boundary in the morning hours and move east northeast from south
central Kansas. Focus for locally heavy rainfall shifts a bit south
in the afternoon into southern Kansas and Oklahoma. MUCAPE increases
to around 800-1000 J/kg across east central Kansas in the afternoon
hours, but shear is weak to marginal. Upper trough moving east will
increase the upward vertical motion for showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the frontal boundary in the afternoon. Highs behind
the front will range from the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

Friday Night through Sunday, A southern stream longer wave upper
level trough across the southwestern US and northern Mexico will
continue through the period. A surface warm front will surge
northward across the CWA Friday night with plenty of deep gulf
moisture moving north. The southern stream jet looks fairly weak,
under 30 KTS of mid level flow. However, minor disturbances ejecting
northeast across the southern and central plains, with a weak CAP in
place, will provide sufficient ascent for periods of showers and
thunderstorms through the period. The most likely dry periods will
be during the late morning and early afternoon hours. The primary
hazard will be heavy rainfall. It will be difficult to determine
where the highest rainfall amounts will occur with deep moist
convection, but areas along and south of I-70 could see up to 2
inches of rainfall through the period. Highs will range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s. If we see a bit more insolation, then Highs
may reach the mid 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the 60s.

Chances for precipitation remain throughout the rest of the period
from Sunday night to Thursday. As one upper level trough moves out
of the area Sunday evening, another upper level, positively-tilted
trough stays stagnant over the southern Great Plains at least
through Tuesday. At the surface, a NE to SW boundary sets up which
would provide the lift for any storms on these days. Models begin
to vary greatly by Wednesday and Thursday with the ECMWF expanding
an upper-level high over the SE CONUS into Texas, causing more
zonal flow over the Central Plains. The GFS does not expand this
high allowing for the shortwave trough to remain over the southern
plains these days bringing better chances for precipitation.
Overall, the severe threat looks low for the period with weak
instability and shear present almost all days. There could be
periods of heavy rainfall which would enhance the potential for
flooding over the already saturated area. Cloud cover will
dominate the period and temperatures will stay pretty consistent
with highs in the mid-80s and lows in the upper-60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

VFR conditions are expected outside of convective activity through
04Z then cigs gradually become MVFR for the rest of the period. A
front is expected to move through the terminals in the 22Z-03Z
time period. Also additional TSRA may affect TOP and FOE through
10Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Gargan/Heller
AVIATION...53

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-122045-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
338 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...MAINLY BETWEEN 5 PM AND 10 PM. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH
ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHERE MULTIPLE
STORMS CAN MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.

FLOODING ALONG STREAMS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
PRODUCTS FOR DETAILS.

FLOODING ALONG THE BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR BLUE RAPIDS IS FORECAST TO
PERSIST UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA.
CERTAINTY IN SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING AT ANY PARTICULAR TIME IS
LOW AS THESE SYSTEMS ARE FAIRLY WEAK GIVEN THE DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE. MAIN HAZARD WILL BE THE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL...LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY IN NORTHERN KANSAS BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM.
SPOTTERS ARE ALSO ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN AN INCH TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
108 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0107 PM     HEAVY RAIN       E DELIA                 39.24N 95.96W
06/11/2015  E1.40 INCH       JACKSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG