Flood and Hail in Kansas, June 11 to 12, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

AN UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS BY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM APPROACHES NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE FROM EASTERN COLORADO AND ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ALSO
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF DODGE CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO THIS EVENING AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER
TO GOLFBALL AND STRONG WINDS INTO MUCH OF THE EVENING. LATER THIS
EVENING, AN MCS (MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX)IS FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS AND MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
LESSER CHANCES IN THE I-70 CORRIDOR. SLOWING MOVING STORMS, ABUNDANT
LAYER MOISTURE, PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES, WILL PROVIDE HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT. GFS MODEL LOOKS TO BE THE MOST
CONSERVATIVE WITH AROUND AN INCH, WHILE THE NAM SHOWS 2 TO 4 INCHES.
MUCH OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS IS ALSO SOUTH OF DODGE
CITY. 6 HOURLY FLASH FOOD GUIDANCE IS AROUND 3 INCHES AND CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE SOME LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER NOT
WIDESPREAD FLOODING. SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FROM DODGE CITY
AND NORTH, AND IN THE MID 60S OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, OR
SOUTHEAST OF DODGE CITY.

FOR FRIDAY, MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SOUTH OF KANSAS BORDER INTO TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. SOME LINGERING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS, NORTH OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA. LOTS OF CLOUDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS KANSAS WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 70 TO 75 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT THEN LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM
TRANSITIONS THROUGH, A SERIES OF H5 VORT MAXIMA WILL CONTINUE TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
LIFTING VERY SLOWLY BACK TO THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY PROVIDING
AMPLE FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE. ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MID LEVELS, PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW WITH A WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND GFS/ECMWF
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH NEAR SATURATED
PROFILES. ALTHOUGH, ENOUGH CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS EXISTS SUNDAY AS GFS/ECMWF MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY MORE INSTABILITY.

WARMER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO RETURNING A SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO WESTERN KANSAS. THIS WILL DRAW SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA WITH H85 TEMPERATURES NEAR 20C ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. LOOK FOR HIGHS UP NEAR 80F SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW RAISING HIGHS WELL UP INTO THE 80S(F)
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AS
WELL WITH THE AIR MASS UNDERGOING LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES LATER TONIGHT, NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS, MAINLY
AFTER 05Z AT KGCK AND KDDC. ALSO STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITH
SOME IFR/MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  61  71  61  80 /  90  60  60  60
GCK  59  68  58  80 /  90  50  50  50
EHA  58  68  56  81 /  80  70  40  30
LBL  62  71  61  80 /  80  70  60  50
HYS  59  70  60  78 /  50  50  60  50
P28  66  76  65  81 /  70  70  80  60

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRUSE
LONG TERM...JJOHNSON
AVIATION...KRUSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-122000-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
255 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH LARGE HAIL FROM QUARTER TO
GOLFBALL SIZE, AND STRONG WINDS OVER 60 MPH, ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM NEAR
ASHLAND TO PRATT THIS EVENING. OTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OUT OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND INTO PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS THIS EVENING. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. WHILE
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, SOME LOCAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THERE ARE VARYING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE
STORMS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO NEAR DODGE CITY AND
PRATT.

&&

FOR MORE DETAILS VISIT OUR WEBPAGE HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC/EHWO

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