Flash Flood in Kansas, July 19, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...UPDATE FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND AVIATION FORECAST
DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

TORRENTIAL RAIN BAND DEVELOPED IN FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND LOOKS
TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING. MRMS Q3 DATA
SUGGESTS AREAS OF 3 INCH PER HOUR RATES AND DUAL POL ESTIMATES ARE
ACTUALLY A BIT HIGHER. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 2-2.2 INCHES
AND THERE ARE SEVERAL QUICK RESPONSE STREAMS IN THE REGION SO DO
EXPECT A SHORT DURATION FLASH FLOOD EVENT THROUGH MID MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LOCAL AREA AHEAD OF A SURFACE
LOW AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN CENTRAL AND WESTERN KS
RESPECTIVELY. THE MAIN FOCUS SEEMS TO BE IN A CONFLUENT ZONE OF
THE LLJ WHICH FOCUSES FROM CENTRAL KS NORTHEAST TOWARD TOPEKA.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES APPROXIMATELY 3000 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN
THIS AREA BUT AFTER TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT SOUNDINGS IT APPEARS
THAT THE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE ROOTED IN A LAYER THAT
REALIZES 1000- 1500 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS EXPLAINS THE INABILITY TO
BECOME PARTICULARLY STRONG SO FAR ALONG WITH AN ELEVATED SHEAR
PROFILE NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF MID LEVEL ROTATION. AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THOUGH GIVEN THE NEARLY 2 INCH PWAT
VALUES. WHILE THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE NON-SEVERE, AN
MCS HAS ORGANIZED NICELY FROM WESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
THROUGH 330 AM...AND WAS FORWARD PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN
KANSAS. GIVEN THE STRONG COLD POOL AND BOOKEND VORTEX THAT THIS
SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED, EXPECT A GOOD CHANCE FOR IT TO REMAIN STRONG
TO SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH THE COLD
POOL LIKELY HELPING IT TO REALIZE THE FULL AVAILABLE MUCAPE OF
2-3000 J/KG. THE MAIN QUESTION MAY BE HOW FAR EAST THE SYSTEM IS
ABLE TO REMAIN SEVERE AND FOR NOW HAVE A SEVERE TSTORM WATCH AS
FAR EAST AS MARYSVILLE AND MANHATTAN BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY FOR
POTENTIAL EXPANSION. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
60+ MPH WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST PARTS OF THE SYSTEM. WITH
ANY LUCK, THE ONGOING NON-SEVERE STORMS WILL HELP TO STABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE A BIT IN ADVANCE OF THE FORWARD PROPAGATING SYSTEM AND
ACT TO WEAKEN IT A BIT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA AND WHILE MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A STRAY STORM TO LINGER...ESPECIALLY
IN EASTERN KANSAS...INTO THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WILL BE WATCHING
THE EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD BE SOME COMBINATION OF
THE EXISTING FRONT AND OUTFLOW FROM MORNING STORMS FOR POTENTIAL
LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT STRONG INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY BY LATE IN THE DAY AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF
POTENTIAL FOR STORM ORGANIZATION SO WILL HAVE A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
POTENTIAL (MAINLY HAIL AND WIND) WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THIS PERIOD. ALSO...WITH THE SUN EXPECTED TO COME OUT BY LATE
MORNING, SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF 100+ HEAT INDICES FOR AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF I-70 AND 105 OR GREATER SOUTH OF I-35...SO HAVE ISSUED
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR COFFEY AND ANDERSON COUNTIES.

OVERNIGHT, A WELL ORGANIZED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CROSS
KANSAS. THIS WILL LIKELY INTERACT WITH THE FRONT AND SHOULD ALSO
ENHANCE THE LLJ WITH CONVERGENCE OVER AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. THUS EXPECT SCATTERED ELEVATED
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR A
CONCENTRATED MCS TO PROPAGATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT AT LEAST
SOME CHANCE FOR WIND/HAIL EXISTS. HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SOME
POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN AS WELL,
PARTICULARLY IF STORM TRAINING CAN OCCUR WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN FOR
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW RENEWED COLD AIR
ADVECTION TO REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY PUSH IT
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT LEADING TO COOLER AND
DRYER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING.
EVENTUALLY THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OVER WEST TX
OR NM WITH 500MB HEIGHTS BUILDING BACK IN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KS.

THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. CHANCES FOR
PRECIP REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE AREA. ALTHOUGH 0-6KM SHEAR IS A LITTLE WEAKER. NEVERTHELESS
THERE COULD BE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY EVENING ANTICIPATING THE DRYER COOLER AIR WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE SCOURING OUT A LOT OF THE INSTABILITY. THE GFS IS THE ONLY
SOLUTION THAT DEVELOPS PRECIP POST FRONTAL AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY BE SUFFERING FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN ITS VORTICITY
PROGS. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
INCREASES, ESPECIALLY WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION OVER THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY WHICH IS SEEN IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE GONE WITH SOME LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND HOLD ONTO SOME CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AS PRECIP COULD LINGER
INTO THE DAY. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AS THE RIDGE
REDEVELOPS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A WEAK WAVE CLIPPING NORTHEAST
KS FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THESE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS IS LOW
AS MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME RESOLVING THEM. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 90 BUT TRENDED COOLER WITH
MID 80S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING IN. WE SHOULD SEE 90S RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS FLIRTING
WITH 100 FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOLEST TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE REDEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL KS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 734 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
MORNING WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIG/VIS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TRANSITION THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING FROM WEST TO NORTH TO EAST AND PROBABLY REMAINING
EASTERLY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR EVENING TS DEVELOPMENT BUT
BEST CHANCE IS AFTER 04Z AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO 08Z WHEN ANOTHER
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ058-059.

&&

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
503 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ020-021-034-035-191030-
DICKINSON-OTTAWA-CLAY-CLOUD-
503 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA...NORTHERN DICKINSON...
SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN CLOUD COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM CDT...

AT 503 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BARNARD TO 5 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SOLOMON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ABILENE...MINNEAPOLIS...SOLOMON...BENNINGTON...MILTONVALE...GLASCO...
DELPHOS...TESCOTT...JAMESTOWN...CULVER...WELLS...MANCHESTER...
LONGFORD...OAK HILL...ADA...MOONLIGHT...NILES AND TALMAGE.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 281.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3965 9793 3965 9789 3911 9696 3906 9696
      3877 9737 3896 9737 3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 211DEG 42KT 3923 9798 3886 9731

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
512 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ038-191045-
WABAUNSEE-
512 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WABAUNSEE COUNTY UNTIL 545 AM
CDT...

AT 512 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
OVER ALTA VISTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ALMA...ESKRIDGE...ALTA VISTA...MCFARLAND...KEENE AND VOLLAND.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 323 AND 334.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3874 9623 3874 9639 3882 9639 3882 9644
      3883 9650 3904 9650 3904 9639 3917 9639
      3896 9595 3895 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 1012Z 227DEG 27KT 3891 9641

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
528 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ021-022-035-036-191115-
RILEY-DICKINSON-CLAY-GEARY-
528 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RILEY...DICKINSON...
SOUTHEASTERN CLAY AND GEARY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

AT 527 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF ABILENE
TO 7 MILES SOUTH OF JUNCTION CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...JUNCTION CITY...ABILENE...OGDEN...GRANDVIEW PLAZA...
CHAPMAN...SOLOMON...WAKEFIELD...RILEY...ENTERPRISE...MILFORD...
MANCHESTER...MILFORD LAKE...MOONLIGHT...TALMAGE AND KEATS.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 267 AND 321.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3911 9737 3936 9706 3927 9661 3923 9658
      3920 9652 3920 9656 3918 9656 3919 9652
      3917 9652 3917 9647 3919 9644 3917 9639
      3904 9639 3904 9650 3887 9650 3887 9689
      3881 9689 3874 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 1027Z 243DEG 41KT 3903 9731 3893 9675

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
530 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ008-009-020-021-034-191115-
WASHINGTON-OTTAWA-CLAY-CLOUD-REPUBLIC-
530 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OTTAWA...CLAY...CLOUD...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND REPUBLIC COUNTIES UNTIL 615 AM CDT...

AT 530 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR JAMESTOWN TO NEAR OAK
HILL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CONCORDIA...CLAY CENTER...MINNEAPOLIS...BELLEVILLE...CLYDE...
BENNINGTON...CLIFTON...MILTONVALE...GLASCO...LINN...SCANDIA...
DELPHOS...TESCOTT...JAMESTOWN...COURTLAND...MORGANVILLE...CUBA...
NORWAY...GREEN AND CULVER.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4000 9793 4000 9757 3957 9693 3957 9696
      3942 9696 3913 9731 3913 9737 3896 9737
      3896 9793
TIME...MOT...LOC 1030Z 225DEG 35KT 3962 9795 3926 9741

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
610 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

KSZ008>010-020>023-191145-
RILEY-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-CLAY-POTTAWATOMIE-CLOUD-REPUBLIC-
610 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RILEY...NORTHEASTERN
CLAY...SOUTHERN MARSHALL...NORTHEASTERN CLOUD...NORTHWESTERN
POTTAWATOMIE...WASHINGTON AND REPUBLIC COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM CDT...

AT 609 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELLEVILLE TO NEAR ST.
GEORGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

30 TO 40 MPH WINDS HAVE BEEN COMMON WITH THESE STORMS...WITH SMALLER
AREAS OF WIND UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN MANHATTAN...BELLEVILLE...WASHINGTON...BLUE RAPIDS...
WESTMORELAND...BLAINE...CLYDE...ONAGA...HANOVER...WATERVILLE...
CLIFTON...LEONARDVILLE...LINN...SCANDIA...GREENLEAF...OLSBURG...
RANDOLPH...BARNES...CUBA AND MORROWVILLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 AM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4000 9710 3951 9609 3919 9654 3975 9782
      4000 9773
TIME...MOT...LOC 1109Z 224DEG 33KT 3989 9764 3925 9646

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