This Thursday morning (Christmas Eve) featured a widespread light to at-times moderate snow event across much of this six-county North Central Kansas area, all of which fell during the pre-dawn hours. 5 inches, some places within Phillips and Smith counties reported locally higher totals of 3 -5, marking the biggest snowfall of the early winter season.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
This Thursday morning (Christmas Eve) featured a widespread light to at-times moderate snow event across much of this six-county North Central Kansas area, all of which fell during the pre-dawn hours. While the majority of locations received between 1 and 2.5 inches, some places within Phillips and Smith counties reported locally higher totals of 3 -5, marking the biggest snowfall of the early winter season. According to a combination of CoCoRaHS and NWS cooperative observers, a few of the highest reports featured 5 at Phillipsburg and 3 at Smith Center and seven miles northwest of Lebanon. On the lower end of the spectrum, far southern and southeastern portions of the area, especially Mitchell County, saw little to no snow as slightly warmer air aloft allowed precipitation type to prevail as rain and possibly a brief period of sleet. All in all, this was a fairly low-impact event, especially given that winds averaged near-to-below 15 MPH and the snow was fairly wet in nature given surface temperatures a few degrees either side of freezing. In fact, many folks welcomed this snow as it set the stage for the first white Christmas parts of the area had seen in three years.
Timing-wise, this was clearly an overnight/early morning event for North Central Kansas. The first snowflakes pushed into Phillips and Rooks counties between 1-2 AM and the leading edge of steady precipitation reached Jewell and Mitchell counties between 3-4 AM. Snow fell for no more than 3-4 hours in most places, with the back edge pushing out of Jewell County to the northeast between 6-7 AM. In the mid to upper levels, this quick-hitting event was instigated by a rather low-amplitude shortwave trough tracking across Nebraska and northern Kansas, and embedded within a broad, larger-scale trough dominating the majority of the United States. Despite its fairly modest appearance in computer model data, this disturbance made the most of its mid-level isentropic lift and frontogenesis, resulting in slightly-higher-than-anticipated snow amounts in far North Central Kansas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 24, 12:32 AM CST, 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1232 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 .SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THE FOCUS FOR THIS PERIOD IS TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...AND THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A LIGHT SNOW EVENT. HAVE INCREASED SNOW CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY. THE SNOW WILL RIDE ALONG A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY IN WRN WYOMING AND NORTH OF STRONG H250 JET TO THE SOUTH. MODEL QPF LOCATION HAVE FOCUSED ON OUR FORECAST...WITH AVERAGE ABOUT 0.15" OR SO. HOWEVER A COUPLE MODELS HAVE UPWARDS OF A QUARTER INCH LIQUID PRECIPITATION. KIND OF SPLITTING THE MIDDLE A BIT ON AMOUNTS...BUT A GENERAL 1-2 INCH SNOW WILL BE MOST COMMON. WINDS ARE LIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...SO NO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW...GIVEN WE ARE INTO THE WINTER SEASON A BIT...LOW END SNOW AMOUNTS...AND LITTLE WIND... HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TRENDS OVERNIGHT MAY DICTATE OTHERWISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81... BUT WILL DEFER THAT TO LATER SHIFT. CHOOSE TO ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR SOME EXTRA HIGHLIGHT OF TONIGHTS EVENT. THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST...ENDING FIRST NEAR SUNRISE IN WESTERN AREAS...AND AROUND NOON IN THE FAR EAST. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE ENOUGH CLEARING THE AFTERNOON TO GARNER SOME WARMING AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. LOCATIONS WITH 2 INCHES OF FRESH SNOW WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO COOLER...OR EASTERN AREAS WHERE SNOW AND CLOUDS HOLD THE LONGEST. IN GENERAL...DO EXPECT AT LEAST SOME MELTING ON ROADS, ETC. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 339 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT SHOWS MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SWRLY FLOW IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WRN CONUS. AT THE SFC...EXPECTING A WEAKER PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA TO START OFF...BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE ROCKIES...WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY. KEPT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DRY...WITH ANY POPS HELD OFF UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THOSE FEW PRE DAWN HOURS STAYING DRY IS NOT THE HIGHEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA NEAR/AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS A WEAKER LEAD SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS...ALSO AIDED BY INCREASED LIFT ALONG THE NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SRLY LLJ. KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE...A FEW MODELS SHOW NO QPF AFFECTING THE CWA DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD IT DEVELOP...THE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH N-NE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY...AND HAVE THAT TREND IN THE POPS. ITS POSSIBLE MUCH OF THE CWA MAY SEE LITTLE/IF ANYTHING...WILL SEE HOW THINGS TREND. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 2 AREAS OF ENERGY DEVELOPING OUT OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH THE ROCKIES...WITH THE STRONGER PORTION BRING LOW PRESSURE DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH/ORGANIZING BY 12Z SAT OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE SECOND MORE NRN PIECE OF ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PUSHING TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THAT TIME FRAME. WHILE THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES WITH HOW MUCH OF THE CWA IS IMPACTED...AGREEMENT IS GOOD THAT THE NRN HALF STANDS THE BETTER CHANCE OF ACCUMULATION. THERE ARE ALSO REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THE PUSH OF COLDER AIR...AND THUS CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. AT THIS POINT...FORECAST IS CALLING FOR FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA TO PICK UP AN INCH OR SO OF NEW SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. DIDNT PUT IT INTO THE FORECAST DUE TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER A MENTION OF -FZDZ FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IF SOMETHING LIKE THE NAM PANS OUT. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH...AND BY 12Z SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ROUGHLY OVER THE WRN TX/MEXICO BORDER. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME WAS TO LOWER POPS...WITH THE MAJORITY OF OUR NEB COUNTIES NOW POP-FREE. IF THIS TREND STICKS...FEEL THAT POPS WILL BE ABLE TO BE COMPLETELY REMOVED...WITH THE BETTER CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA OVER THE SRN PLAINS. INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT MAIN UPPER LOW. COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS HAS IMPROVED...BUT THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR MORE. BY 12Z MONDAY...THE SPREAD OF THE LOCATION OF THE LOW RANGES FROM THE OK/TX BORDER TO FURTHER INTO THE HEART OF TX. WITH TIME THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE QUICKER SOLUTION...BUT THE SPREAD BETWEEN IT AND THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS IS NOT AS GREAT. IF ANYTHING...THE 12Z RUN OF MODELS ARE A TOUCH SLOWER...WITH A BIT OF AN EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. THE HIGHER POPS NOW SIT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MONDAY /AND WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT IF TRENDS CONTINUE/...AND SIT OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF THERE IS A CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT...IF THERE IS...LESS OF THE CWA WOULD SEE MUCH OF AN IMPACT. AS IT SITS NOW...STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESSY TIME FRAME WITH HEAVIER SNOW/GUSTY WINDS. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 1232 AM CST THU DEC 24 2015 ALTHOUGH THESE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD WILL FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CEILING...A FAIRLY STEADY AREA OF LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY AT-TIMES MODERATE SNOW WILL BREAK OUT AND AFFECT BOTH KGRI/KEAR MAINLY DURING THE 08Z-15Z TIME FRAME. DURING THIS TIME...BOTH CEILING/VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN MVFR/IFR...WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE. ONCE SNOW ENDS BY MID-LATE MORNING...CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO VFR VISIBILITY IS QUITE HIGH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...BUT CEILING IS STILL A QUESTION MARK WITH VARYING MODEL DEPICTIONS OF WHEN/IF CEILINGS RISE AND/OR SCATTER OUT TO VFR. FOR NOW...WILL AIM FOR A MID-LATE AFTERNOON RETURN TO VFR...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH. FORTUNATELY...SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR ISSUE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH SPEEDS LARGELY AT/BELOW 7KT...AND DIRECTION SOMEWHAT VARIABLE AS A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWSMORITZ LONG TERM...ADP AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 352 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 241200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 352 PM CST WED DEC 23 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN ABOUT MIDNIGHT...AND WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. LIGHT SNOW WILL BE WRAPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 1 INCH. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. THERE CONTINUES TO BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS THE REGION THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES FAVOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS...SO BE SURE TO STAY UP TO DATE AS THE FORECAST EVOLVES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE)
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
CoCoRaHS observers reported 3.0 in Smith Center and also seven miles northwest of Lebanon.
A snowfall total of 5.0 inches occurred in Phillipsburg.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, December 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 608491, 612244.