Hail in Kansas, April 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1249 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OUT OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS VERY GOOD AHEAD OF
THE LOW AND WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EVEN MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IN THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACROSS THE AREA
SO HARD TO FIND A DRY LINE FEATURE TO FOCUS ON...SO THINK STORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED ABOUT FAIRLY UNIFORMLY AT FIRST. IF SUPERCELLS
DEVELOP EASTERLY SURFACE COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
TORNADO THREAT IN THE STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SIMILAR TO THE
LAST FEW DAYS...STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THEY MERGE...BUT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH EXPECT
EXTENSIVE WRAPAROUND PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH TO DEVELOP AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MUCAPE DOES NOT GO
TO ZERO SO LEFT A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER THROUGH SUNDAY
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT WILL BE DONE BY 06Z TONIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
STRONG...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH. DONT
THINK WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE REACHED BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERED MAX
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CONSIDERABLY WITH SLOWER DEPARTURE OF
PRECIPITATION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD STARTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION WITH MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS INDICATE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE TRI STATE AREA...WHICH COULD SPARK SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE AREA
IS WHEN ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INCREASING JET LIFT.
SURFACE BASED CAPE BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ARE PRESENT THROUGH
THE VERTICAL PROFILE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A
SURFACE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS TO THE TRI STATE AREA. UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

VFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AFTER WHICH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED. SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CEILINGS AND AREAS
OF FOG POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND GUSTS TO 40KTS AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1031 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1031 AM MDT SAT APR 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE
REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS...HOWEVER AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.