A weak warm front sparked afternoon and evening thunderstorms with locally heavy rains and a couple of isolated flash flooding events in southeastern Iowa.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DVN wrote it up.
A weak warm front sparked afternoon and evening thunderstorms with locally heavy rains and a couple of isolated flash flooding events in southeastern Iowa.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Quad Cities, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 11, 6:54 AM CST, 3 hours 46 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 754 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 .UPDATE... ISSUED AT 743 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 INCOMING MORNING RAINFALL REPORTS HAVE SEVERAL SITES REPORTING 0.5 TO OVER 1 INCH OF RAIN WITH THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED TO INCREASE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWERING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. THE RAIN FROM THIS COMPLEX IS MOISTENING THE GROUND FOR LATER RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL LATER TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY. HOWEVER...THE FORCING IS MORE ON THE MESOSCALE INSTEAD OF SYNOPTIC SCALE SO THE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LOCALIZED. THIS SITUATION MAKES IT QUITE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A THREAT AREA. THESE CONCERNS WILL BE PASSED TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT FOR A RE- EVALUATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT. && .SYNOPSIS... ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 06Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES WITH MID 60S AND INTO THE 70S FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SOUTH. && .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THE EXPECTED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS TAKEN A BIT LONGER TO DEVELOP BUT IS SLOWLY GROWING UPSCALE FROM SOUTHWEST IOWA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO GROW UPSCALE THROUGH SUNRISE AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX WAS A WING OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WING OF CONVECTION WAS HAVING TROUBLE MAINTAINING ITSELF IN THE DRIER AIR AND WEAKER FORCING. AFTER SUNRISE THE SOUTHERN IOWA COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL FORCING DECREASES. THE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL COMBINE WITH DIFFERENTIAL HEATING DURING THE DAY TO ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. A NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AND GROW UPSCALE THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS FORCING/MOISTURE INCREASE. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT...PWATS WILL BE 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES SUGGESTING SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GEM IS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO RE- DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR...THEN RAINFALL WOULD BE EXCESSIVE. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM ARE THREEFOLD: HEAVY RAIN...SEVERE WEATHER AND EXTREME HEAT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...COOLER TEMPS WITH A LIMITED STORM THREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THEN AN INCREASED THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY. WHILE BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN ARE INDICATED AS THREATS BY THE 00Z MODELS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD...HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PREDOMINATE THREAT. EXTREME CAPE VALUES LIKELY REFLECT NAM AND GFS EXAGGERATION OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FIELDS... AND THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE IN THIS REGARD (WHICH IS STILL PLENTY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WIND THREAT). THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LINGER SUNDAY...THEN AN MCS EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH DECENT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS SHAPING UP FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL KEY THE AREA MOST UNDER THREAT...AND AT THIS TIME... THAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE CWA MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE QUAD CITIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RAMP UP INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST WELL INTO THE 70S...EVEN LOWER 80S. THE NAM AND GFS DEW POINTS APPEAR TOO HIGH AND HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK IN THE GRIDS ACCORDINGLY. BUT EVEN WITH THIS CHANGE...APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PROGGED TO EXCEED 100 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS MAY NECESSITATE A HEAT HEADLINE UNLESS MODEL DEW POINTS ARE SERIOUSLY OVERDONE...IN WHICH CASE APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TOO HIGH. AT ANY RATE...IT SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST AND MOST HUMID WEATHER SO FAR THIS SUMMER. PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BUT DEW POINTS WILL CONTINUE ON THE HUMID SIDE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE PASSAGE OF A LATE WEEK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...AND THE 00Z ECMWF HAS JUST COME IN LINE WITH THE GFS TIMING FOR THURSDAY. PWS...CAPE AND SHEAR ALL LOOK SUFFICIENT TO EXPECT A RETURN OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING) ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 18Z/11 AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE. MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS WITH TSRA CAN BE EXPECTED. AFT 18Z/11 CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR WITH DIURNAL TSRA DEVELOPING. AFT 00Z/12 TSRA WILL SLOWLY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS IOWA/ILLINOIS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && UPDATE...08 SYNOPSIS...08 SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...WOLF AVIATION...08
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 440 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-120945- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 440 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF SEVERE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP...THE PRIMARY THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. A BIGGER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS... RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE EXCESSIVE AND POTENTIALLY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS EARLY SUNDAY COULD REIGNITE SUNDAY EVENING PROVIDING A LOCALIZED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY WHEN STORMS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA COULD COALESCE INTO A LINE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY MONDAY...THEN A SIMILAR PATTERN IS POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS REIGNITING MONDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR IN PROXIMITY TO A WARM FRONT... THUS THE ULTIMATE LOCATION OF THAT BOUNDARY WILL INDICATE THE AREA OF HIGHEST RISK. AT THIS POINT THAT AREA APPEARS TO BE GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO BURLINGTON IOWA. IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORMS...HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE QUAD CITIES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS COULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES. THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST EXTREME HEAT EPISODE OF THE SEASON...SO IMPACTS DUE TO HEAT STRESS TO PEOPLE WORKING OR RECREATING OUTDOORS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF CAUTION IS NOT EXERCISED. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST THURSDAY WITH BOTH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. AT THIS POINT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT. RAINFALL REPORTS OVER AN INCH WILL BE APPRECIATED. 08/WOLF
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 IAZ078-088-089-099-ILZ024>026-111715- LOUISA-HENRY IA-DES MOINES-LEE-MERCER-HENDERSON-WARREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAPELLO...MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON... FORT MADISON...ALEDO...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH 1015 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ...HEAVY RAINS THROUGH NOON... A SLOW MOVING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND NOON TODAY. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL TOTAL 1 TO 2 INCHES...RESULTING IN FULL DITCHES...AND PONDING OF WATER ON POORLY DRAINED ROADS AND PARKING LOTS. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS MORNING...AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER OVER A ROAD. WHILE RAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. ERVIN
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 IAZ088-089-099-ILZ024>026-034-035-MOZ010-111800- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-LEE-MERCER-HENDERSON-WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH- CLARK- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON... FORT MADISON...ALEDO...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB... KAHOKA 1117 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015 ...HEAVY RAINS THROUGH NOON... A SLOW MOVING AREA OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING BRIEF VERY HEAVY RAIN...WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS THROUGH AROUND NOON TODAY. RAINFALL THIS MORNING WILL TOTAL 1 TO 2 INCHES...RESULTING IN FULL DITCHES...AND PONDING OF WATER ON POORLY DRAINED ROADS AND PARKING LOTS. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS MORNING...AND NEVER DRIVE THROUGH WATER OVER A ROAD. WHILE RAINS SHOULD DISSIPATE TOWARD EARLY AFTERNOON...MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS TONIGHT WILL BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.
The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 109 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:38 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several locations in Mount Pleasant were barricaded and closed due to the deep water over them.
Water was over numerous roads to a depth of over 6 inches and some of the water was flowing in a few locations. At least one vehicle was stalled in the flood water in the middle of the road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596470, 596471.