Hail and Damaging Wind in Indiana, June 8, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
636 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE ANY
STORMS DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. BRIEF QUIET WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS THE AREA...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN IN THE
AREA...BRINGING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BACK TO THE FORECAST LATER IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

HAVE SEEN SOME WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS BACK
INTO WESTERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
PERSIST AND PERHAPS DEVELOP A BIT MORE AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA THIS EVENING. WILL ONLY CARRY POPS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT OR 1
AM THOUGH...AS THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND EXPECT
IT TO DISSIPATE AS LOW LEVELS STABILIZE TONIGHT.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE GIVEN UPSTREAM MINS
AND EXPECTED DEWPOINTS AND EXPECT MOST AREAS TO GET WELL INTO THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESUME LATE
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND
WHILE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MINIMAL...AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
MAY BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISOLATED STORMS TO FIRE NEAR PEAK
HEATING. WILL MAINTAIN POPS THROUGH THURSDAY AND BEYOND AS THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA.

ON TEMPS...CONSENSUS NUMBERS APPEARED REASONABLE THROUGHOUT WITH
MINOR TWEAKS. UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GIVE WAY
BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE.
FOLLOWING THIS...RIDGING WILL RETURN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT WILL BE DRAPED WEST TO EAST FROM
WESTERN IOWA...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA...UP INTO THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. THESE FEATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER THIS WEEKEND.
REGIONAL BLEND SUPPORTS THIS PATTERN.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
FEED FOR THIS WEEKEND WILL BE FLOWING INTO CENTRAL INDIANA FROM
ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. THIS FEED LOOKS TO ORIGINATE
FROM THE REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT RECENTLY IMPACTED
THE BAJA PENINSULA OFF OF MEXICO IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN. MODELS
INDICATE THAT AVAILABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD
IS ON THE ORDER OF 2 INCHES.

INITIALIZATION HANDLES THE TEMPERATURES WELL SO NO CHANGES WERE
MADE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD
AND THEN COOL OFF TO START THE WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY REBOUND BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 090000Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 636 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
ILLINOIS/NORTHERN INDIANA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE TERMINALS
THROUGH ABOUT 090500Z. CURRENTLY QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. AIR MASS IS QUITE UNSTABLE
LOCALLY...SO THERE IS A THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES. MAY NEED TO
EXPLICITLY MENTION THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME TERMINALS FOR A PERIOD THIS
EVENING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. GUSTY/SHIFTING WINDS AND BRIEF
IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR HEAVIER CONVECTION.
CB BASES AROUND 030.

CONCERN FOR FOG POTENTIAL LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IF MORE RAIN
ENDS UP OCCURRING THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...NOT SOLD ON FOG DEVELOPMENT
YET.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 250-280 DEGREES AT 8-11 KTS...DIMINISHING TO
6 KTS OR LESS AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NIELD
NEAR TERM...NIELD
SHORT TERM...NIELD
LONG TERM...MMB/RYAN
AVIATION...JAS

VISIT US AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IND

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSINDIANAPOLIS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
427 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-090830-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
427 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

HAZARDS: HEAVY RAINFALL. LIGHTNING. GUSTY WINDS.

TIMING: THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

DISCUSSION: A FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA WILL
KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK: THERE ARE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
AREA FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME
WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER LIGHTNING IS A
THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM.

DISCUSSION: UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE WEEK AND SEVERAL UPPER WAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

CP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
847 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

INZ021-031-090130-
CARROLL-HOWARD-
847 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2015

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM ADVISORY FOR CARROLL AND HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL
930 PM EDT...

AT 844 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DELPHI...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MONTICELLO...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  KOKOMO...
  CAMDEN...
  FLORA...
  INDIAN HEIGHTS...
  GREENTOWN...

&&

LAT...LON 4070 8652 4067 8637 4057 8636 4057 8586
      4041 8594 4040 8607 4055 8670 4056 8670
      4056 8675 4074 8668
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 288DEG 34KT 4062 8659

JH