Dense Fog, Ogle
- When
- March 9, 10:35 AM CST to March 11, 7:15 AM CST
- Where
- Ogle forecast zone
- Deaths
- 0 direct, 2 indirect
- Injuries
- 0 direct, 4 indirect
- Reported by
- Newspaper
- Coordinates
- 42.043, -89.321 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Dense Fog in Illinois, March 9 to 11, 2015
Dense fog developed across north central Illinois the morning of the 10th and continued through the day at some locations. The poor visibility, less than a quarter mile at times, resulted in a fatal car accident where two high school students were killed in far west suburban Rochelle.
Where it happened
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
The toll
- Deaths
- 2
- Injuries
- 4
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 1
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
What happened
The episode as NWS LOT wrote it up.
Dense fog developed across north central Illinois the morning of the 10th and continued through the day at some locations. The poor visibility, less than a quarter mile at times, resulted in a fatal car accident where two high school students were killed in far west suburban Rochelle.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Chicago, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 9, 10:15 AM CST, 20 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 9, 10:15 AM CST, 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CENTRAL ILLINOIS 1115 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 .SHORT TERM... 215 AM CDT THROUGH TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS SOUTH OF I-80 AND IT WILL ALSO SHIFT EAST EARLY THIS MORNING LEADING TO A SUNNY DAY. UPPED HIGH TEMPS BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES SINCE WE WILL SEE AMPLE SUNSHINE AND THE GROUND SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM RATHER EFFICIENTLY. EXPECTING HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY...AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPOTS HITTING 50 SOUTH OF I-80. THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE THAT A LAKE BREEZE MAY FORM TODAY...BUT DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT ONE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IF A LAKE BREEZE WERE TO FORM...EXPECTING IT TO HUG THE SHORE AND NOT TRAVEL VERY FAR INLAND. CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. RAISED LOWS TONIGHT ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88 AS I THINK CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HOW MUCH WE COOL TONIGHT. LOOKING AT LOWS IN THE MID TO LOWER 30S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-88. AREAS NORTH OF I-88 WILL LIKELY REMAIN CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR...SO HAVE THOSE SITES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING TO AROUND 30. JEE && .LONG TERM... 258 AM CDT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY GIVING WAY TO THE TYPICAL HUGE TEMP GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY WINDS SETTING UP OFF THE LAKE. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP TO BE AN UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS LIKELY SOARING INTO THE 50S AND EVEN LOWER 60S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN CHICAGO AND FAR SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE LINGERING SNOW IS LEAST LIKELY TO BE AN ISSUE. WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENSURE THAT THE TASTE OF SPRING WARMTH IS SHORT LIVED IN LAKE ADJACENT AREAS WITH ONSHORE WINDS LIKELY TO KNOCK 15-20F OR MORE OFF DAYTIME HIGHS NEAR THE LAKE ON WEDNESDAY. WELL INLAND IT LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER VERY MILD DAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN THREATENING TO MAKE A RUN AT LOWER 60S IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND SOLIDLY INTO THE 50S WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A CARBON COPY WITH HIGHS ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORE PROBABLY HOLDING IN THE 30S WHILE AREAS WELL INLAND CLIMB WELL INTO THE 50S. THE MELTING SNOW COULD ADD ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO POSE A THREAT OF SOME NOCTURNAL FOG DEVELOPMENT TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING IN THE LIGHT WIND REGIME. AS SHALLOW COLD MARINE LAYER SPILLS INLAND WEDNESDAY SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MARINE FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG IS NOT TERRIBLY HIGH GIVEN THE AMBIENT AIR MASS THE MARINE LAYER WILL BE OVER TAKING IS NOT TERRIBLY MOIST. OTHER CONCERN IN THE LONGER TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SPREADING INTO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE WEEK AS SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF MID-UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND POTENTIALLY MEANDERS NORTHWARD INTO OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. IF THE WETTER SOLUTIONS PAN OUT THEN HIGHS WOULD BE COLDER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISING FOR FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IN MODEL HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THAT HIGH SO STUCK CLOSER TO THE BLENDED CONSENSUS FOR BOTH POPS AND TEMPS FOR NOW. OVER THE WEEKEND GFS/ECMWF BOTH PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A GLANCING BLOW FROM AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST NOAM WHICH WOULD PROVIDE FOR A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPS NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT THAT JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD WE COULD BE IN STORE FOR OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE SEASON THUS FAR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPS POTENTIALLY GETTING WELL INTO THE 60S IF CURRENT ECMWF/GFS PAN OUT. IZZI && .HYDROLOGY... DO EXPECT SOME GRADUAL RIVER AREA RISES LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE HYDROGRAPH PREDICTIONS. OF GREATER CONCERN MAY BE ICE JAM POTENTIAL AS THE WEEK GOES FORWARD GIVEN SOME RIVERS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH ICE PER ICE SPOTTER REPORTS. && .AVIATION... //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z... * NONE. SMITH //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z... HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. SSW TO S WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES. VFR CLOUD COVER INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IL AND INDIANA. GUIDANCE HINTS AT MVFR OR LOWER CIGS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...BUT THINKING THE MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN OVERDOING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ALSO THINKING THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS WILL DETER FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. CLOUDS THIN OUT TOMORROW MORNING WITH SW WINDS ARND 7 KT. JEE //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z... * HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL FORECAST ELEMENTS. SMITH //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY-12Z MONDAY...UPDATED 12Z... TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW WINDS BCMG NORTH. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...VFR. EAST WINDS. FRIDAY...CHC RAIN. VFR. EAST WINDS BCMG NORTH OVERNIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS. JEE && .MARINE... 234 AM CDT GENERALLY FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE LAKE THE UPCOMING WEEK. FAST MOVING LOW TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES TONIGHT WILL CAUSE SOUTHERLY WINDS TO FRESHEN UP TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MORE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE STRONG WINDS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE AS TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER LAND AND WATER TEMPS HOLD JUST ABOVE FREEZING. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT AND RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHERLY THOUGH WITH FAIRLY LIMITED SPEEDS. COULD BE SOME MARINE FOG DEVELOPING TUES NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE WHERE COLD MARINE LAYER WILL ENCOUNTER SOMEWHAT HIGHER DEW POINTS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON FOG POTENTIAL GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE...SO DID NOT GET TOO CARRIED AWAY WITH FOG IN GRIDS/FORECAST AT THIS TIME. IZZI && .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...NONE. IN...NONE. LM...NONE. && VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 9, 10:05 AM CST, 30 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CENTRAL ILLINOIS 1105 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 100815- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 1105 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 /411 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2015/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. INCREASED STREAM FLOW DUE TO SNOW MELT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD DISLODGE ICE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS...RAISING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED ICE JAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION...MINOR FLOODING ALONG AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE MELTING SNOW. CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE...CAUSING FLOODING MAINLY ALONG SECONDARY ROADWAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. INCREASED STREAM FLOW DUE TO SNOW MELT AND WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD DISLODGE ICE ON STREAMS AND RIVERS...RAISING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED ICE JAM FLOODING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && LMZ740>745-100815- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 1105 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-100815- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 1105 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && SMITH VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE) FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT: WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO
The radar
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
Event by event
1 dense fog. Local standard time, as filed.
The people who died
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dense Fog, Ogle | 2015-03-10 | 16 | Male | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Indirect |
| Dense Fog, Ogle | 2015-03-10 | 16 | Female | Vehicle/Towed Trailer | Indirect |
What these are
- Dense Fog
- Fog reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less, filed where it caused accidents or disruption.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
The same day elsewhere
More
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, March 2015
Sources
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 565144.