High Surf in Hawaii, November 5 to 18, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 AM HST THU NOV 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CLOUD BAND EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...BUT DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A RAGGED BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS
HAS REACHED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE...EMBEDDED
WITHIN TRADE FLOW...WILL INCREASE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. HOWEVER...LEEWARD AREAS WILL GET WET AS
WELL FROM TIME TO TIME AS THE CLOUD BAND MOVES OVER THE ISLANDS
AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS LEEWARD WATERS. BY FRIDAY...WE EXPECT DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE CLOUD BAND MOVES AWAY.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE WEEKEND...A 1041 MB
HIGH IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF BRISK TRADES FOR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. AFTER THE CLOUD BAND PASSES WEST
OF THE ISLANDS FRIDAY...WE EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
PATTERN OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AREAS.

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE HALEAKALA SUMMIT HAS BEEN CANCELLED
SINCE WIND SPEEDS HAVE DROPPED DRAMATICALLY SINCE ABOUT 2 AM HST.
WINDS ACROSS HALEAKALA SUMMIT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT OF A
FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS. THIS CLOUD BAND IS PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD MVFR COND AND ISOLATED IFR COND IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA
OVER WINDWARD AREAS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS MORNING.

LOW LEVEL 20 TO 30 KT ENE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MODERATE
TURB BLW 080. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB W OF
ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN UP FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS.

INCREASING TRADE WINDS WILL BRING ROUGH SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH MAY APPROACH HIGH SURF ADVISORY
LEVEL AT SOME POINT. MODERATE LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
FILL IN LATE FRIDAY...PEAK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. A MODERATE...LATE SEASON...SOUTH SWELL WILL
BEGIN TO FILL IN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...PEAK NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...POWELL