Wildfire in Hawaii, March 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST MON MAR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY. A
WEAK FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND BREEZY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE
STATE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND TURN EASTERLY ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL PUSH REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED FAR EAST-NORTHEAST OF HAWAII...WITH
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS THAT PASSES ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI
THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST...MODERATE AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND TO LIGHT AROUND THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE. THE
EASTERLY WINDS ARE PUSHING IN SCATTERED CLOUDS...SOME OF WHICH
ARE BANKED AGAINST THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS AS THEY INTERACT
WITH THE TERRAIN. RADAR IS SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION
FALLING ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER HAWAII TODAY...WITH A WEAK RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND WEAK TROUGH TO THE EAST. SATELLITE SHOWS SOME HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT THESE WILL MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW
STRONG MIDLEVEL INVERSIONS AT AROUND 8000 FEET.

THE FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND CONVECTIVE.
THE LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON
CLOUDS ACROSS THE LEEWARD / INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
WINDWARD SECTIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY. LAND BREEZES WILL SET IN TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR COOL
TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. THE BACKGROUND FLOW WILL SHIFT
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES ONTO
THE STATE...AND MAY PUSH THE VOG PLUME OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
WILL NOT BE EXPECTING MUCH RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE
TO THE STABLE CONDITIONS AND LACK OF MOISTURE.

A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY 800 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTED
IMPACTS WILL BE THE INCREASE THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PART OF THE STATE DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...THEN SPREADING
TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN STABLE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...SO NOT ANTICIPATING HEAVY
RAIN.

THE BIGGER STORY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE RAPID STRENGTHENING OF
THE WINDS DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE NORTH. THE WINDS WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST AND SPREAD EAST
DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON THURSDAY...BUT
SHIFT TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

WINDS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SLOWLY WEAKEN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT OVER
THE WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHEAST AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
WEAKER INTO THE EVENING AND TUESDAY. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED...ANY SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS BETWEEN FL240 AND FL300 WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
STATE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATE...SHORT PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF HEIGHTS GENERATED FROM THIS
SWELL SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

ON THE SOUTH SHORES...A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. NO OTHER
SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
OVER HAWAII. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A STRONG HIGH BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY
STRENGTHEN NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. WINDS WILL EXCEED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS...AND
WINDS MAY REACH GALE FORCE IN THE CHANNELS. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON