Hail in Florida, March 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
315 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

.NEAR TERM...TONIGHT...SURFACE WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS OVER NE FL
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST AND MERGE WITH LOW OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SOME BREAKS IN OVERCAST HAS OCCURRED SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM NEAR FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE. UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER GA-FL PANHANDLE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH FRONT SHIFTING SE OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS SURFACE LOWS CONSOLIDATE TO THE
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH THE NE SURGE SPREADING LOW CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE AREA.

TUESDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED AND SFC HIGH PRES WEDGE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW INVERTED TROUGH
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH HIGHS SO NUDGED THEM UP BUT
NOT AS MUCH AS LATEST GUIDANCE DUE TO EXPECTATION OF A SOMEWHAT SLOW
DISSIPATION OF LOW CLOUDS IN THE AREA. OTHERWISE...SOME PATCHY LIGHT
FOG AND DRIZZLE IN THE MORNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

WEDNESDAY...INVERTED TROUGHING IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUES NEAR THE
COASTAL AREAS BUT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NWD WITH A FAIRLY CERTAIN
WARMING TREND OCCURRING. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY ERN ZONES
BUT ATTM NO THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED BASED ON STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AROUND THE 700-800 MB LEVEL. AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PRES RIDGE WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE E
COAST WITH A WARM S TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LIMITED
MOISTURE RESULTS IN LOW RAIN CHANCES BUT MAY SEE A FEW LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR ISOLD TSTMS ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
WHERE SEA BREEZES WILL MERGE. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT FROM THE NW SO WE ANTICIPATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THURS NIGHT AND EVEN ISOLD TSTMS AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES
OVER THE REGION.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS ON LARGE UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA AND DIGGING INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
GULF COAST BY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL DRIVE A
STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTH BUT WILL DEPEND ON FRONTAL TIMING ON WHERE TSTMS ARE MORE
PREVALENT. STILL HAVE ISOLD SHOWERS FOR SAT BUT LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING LESS OF A CHANCE NOW. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW NORMAL. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INLAND SE GA GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER/MID 40S ELSEWHERE. TEMPS MODERATE TO NEAR CLIMATE NORMALS
BY MONDAY AS HIGH PRES MOVES S OF THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS
TO SWLY TO W.

&&

.AVIATION...IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING AS AN MOIST NE FLOW SPREADS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT GNV THROUGH 22Z AS FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. PATCHY
DRIZZLE AND FOG EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...NE SURGE HAS REACHED SAUF1 AND WILL REACH FLAGLER BEACH
BY EARLY EVENING. ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REACH ST. AUGUSTINE
WITH SCEC FOR SOUTHERN ZONES. INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY MAINTAINING ADVISORY CONDITIONS. TROUGH BREAKS
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING AHEAD OF NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  52  70  57  79 /  10  10  20  40
SSI  55  65  60  74 /  20  20  40  40
JAX  57  71  60  81 /  20  20  30  30
SGJ  61  72  65  77 /  30  20  30  30
GNV  57  77  61  84 /  20  10  10  30
OCF  59  80  62  84 /  30  10  10  20

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60
     NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS
     FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

ZIBURA/SHASHY/GUILLET

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
330 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-241000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
HAMILTON-SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-
BRADFORD-CLAY-ST. JOHNS-GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-COFFEE-JEFF DAVIS-BACON-APPLING-
WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-COASTAL GLYNN-
ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
330 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFEC AREAS OVER NORTHEAST
FLORIDA MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GAINESVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO. THE
MAIN THREATS WOULD BE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR NORTH OF ST. AUGUSTINE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

JDS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
441 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

FLZ037-038-040-232130-
MARION FL-FLAGLER FL-PUTNAM FL-
441 PM EDT MON MAR 23 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM...EAST
CENTRAL MARION AND SOUTHERN FLAGLER COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 441 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
FRUITLAND...OR NEAR SALT SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
WIND DAMAGE.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PALM COAST...FLAGLER BEACH...BUNNELL...CRESCENT CITY...POMONA PARK...
ANDALUSIA...SALT SPRINGS...FRUITLAND...WELAKA...LAKE COMO AND
GEORGETOWN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REPORT DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR YOUR COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 2926 8122 2926 8141 2940 8142 2938 8145
      2932 8168 2931 8168 2928 8164 2929 8166
      2932 8178 2953 8172 2947 8113
TIME...MOT...LOC 2041Z 283DEG 24KT 2940 8167

STRUBLE