Heavy Rain in Hawaii, July 9, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN A
MODERATE TRADE WIND FLOW THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT SOME PASSING SHOWERS
FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHOWERS ON THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELA IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH ITS REMNANTS TEMPORARILY
DISRUPTING THE TRADE WIND FLOW AS IT PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...BRINGING MUGGY WEATHER TO THE EASTERN PART
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. STRENGTHENING TRADES WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY...
REACHING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPLY THE ISLANDS WITH COOLING TRADES...HOWEVER THIS FLOW WILL
BE DISRUPTED BRIEFLY FOR ABOUT A DAY DUE TO THE PASSING OF THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELA.

THE CURRENT MODERATE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ELA STARTS TO TAKE A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST...WITH ITS TRACK RUNNING PARALLEL NORTH OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE REMNANTS OF ELA WILL BE MORE OF A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTED TROUGH WITH NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS TO THE WEST OF
THE AXIS AND WARM AND MUGGY SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE AXIS.
THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT HEADS WESTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND
BECOMING ALMOST FLAT AS IT PASSES THROUGH KAUAI SUNDAY. THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
TROUGH...AND ALL ISLANDS WILL FEEL THE MUGGINESS OF THIS TROPICAL
AIR MASS.

WITH THIS SAID...THE FORECAST FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS LOOKS GOOD
FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
FAVORING MAINLY THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS. COOLING TRADES WILL BE STRENGTHENING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUILDING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG BY MONDAY.

PLEASE SEE THE LATEST BULLETINS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER FOR INFORMATION ON TROPICAL STORM ELA.

&&

.AVIATION...
ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE ISLANDS IS REACHING KAUAI AS OF 06Z TONIGHT.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS POSTED ALONG NORTH THROUGH
EAST SLOPES FOR ALL ISLANDS...EXCLUDING LANAI. EXPECT MVFR WITH ISOL
IFR ALONG THESE SLOPES. AIRPORTS...INCLUDING
PHTO...PHOG...PHMK...AND PHLI WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. CLOUD TOPS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOL TCU TOPS REACHING 25 THOUSAND FEET. WET
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDES ARE FORECAST TO SEE IMPROVEMENT
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OVER
THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.

LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY VFR WITH PASSING SHOWERS
CARRYING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ELA HAS GENERATED A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SWELL
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...FORECAST TO IMPACTING THE EAST FACING SHORES
OF MOST ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY MORNING TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES IS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS EVENT.

A SMALL SOUTH SWELL IS HERE...AT 2 FEET 14 SECONDS AS PER THE BUOY
OFF BARBERS POINT. SURF FROM THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVEL.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF ALL ISLANDS FROM EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...EATON