Texas, 2015

Flood and Damaging Wind in Texas, July 9, 2015

July 9, 2015 · NWS LUB · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A slow-moving line of thunderstorms exited eastern New Mexico this evening and produced heavy rainfall and strong winds across the western South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. Severe winds from a microburst were measured at Lazbuddie.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$100,000
Crop damage
$500,000
Events
2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.

A slow-moving line of thunderstorms exited eastern New Mexico this evening and produced heavy rainfall and strong winds across the western South Plains and southwest Texas Panhandle. Severe winds from a microburst were measured at Lazbuddie. In Cochran County, training storms for nearly three hours produced an estimated four to six inches of rain in a swath about seven miles west of Morton and Lehman. Late this night, Texas Department of Transportation reported all roads in northern Cochran County had flooded stretches with some sections of Highway 114 closed due to two feet of standing water. A portion of Farm-to-Market Road 1169 southwest of Morton suffered some damage and was flooded for four days.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 5:36 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 9, 5:36 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE OVERNIGHT LOOK TO BE INTERRUPTED BY SOME
TS PRIMARILY AT PVW WHERE THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY NOW LOOKS TO
EXIST AS STORMS SPREAD NE FROM E-CNTRL NM. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
ROUND OF EARLY-DAY MVFR CIGS APPEARS LIKELY AT LBB AND PVW WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT AT CDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015/

SHORT TERM...
ONCE AGAIN...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUT A WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE OVERNIGHT
STORMS LOOK TO RUN FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE CAPROCK BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
TEMPERATURES HAVE STRUGGLED TO WARM WITH THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS
THE REGION BUT HAVE MANAGED TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.  MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SURFACE TEMPS NEED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 85
DEGREES FOR CONVECTION TO BREAK A WEAK CAP OVER THE REGION SO IT
REMAINS VERY MARGINAL WHETHER WE WILL SEE CONVECTION OR NOT DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA.  ALSO LIMITING THE CHANCES ARE LOWER BULK SHEAR
VALUES AS THE JET HAS SHIFTED BACK WEST OF THE REGION.
REGARDLESS...THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BREAK OUT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH PLAINS.  THIS SPREADS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
AND ARRIVE AROUND LUBBOCK AT VARYING TIMES BETWEEN 9 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED A BIT SO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBILITY AND ALONG WITH THAT THE
THREAT OF DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  HAVE BROUGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LUBBOCK AREA BUT KEPT THE ROLLING PLAINS DRY FOR
TONIGHT.  LEFT OUT MENTION OF SEVERE WEATHER BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ANY ISOLATED REPORTS.

ALSO LIKE THE LAST ROUND OF CONVECTION...EXPECT TO SEE ANY OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION FALL APART IN THE MORNING IF IT MANAGES TO MAKE IT THAT
LONG.  WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAY AS LOW
CLOUDS REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.  MODELS ARE ONCE
AGAIN SHOWING THAT HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SO WE WILL SEE IF THAT WILL HELP TO BUMP TEMPERATURES OR NOT.  WILL
GO WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ONCE AGAIN THINKING
THAT WE WILL STILL HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND HEIGHT INCREASES ARE NOT
AS MUCH AS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. JORDAN

LONG TERM...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH DRIER PATTERN UPCOMING FOR
THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. MOIST MONSOONAL FLOW WILL PERSIST
LATE FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED...AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES AND A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK SHEAR. THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ZONES NEAR THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER...WITH COVERAGE SHRINKING CONSIDERABLY FROM FRIDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THIS AS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER
EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRDES WESTWARD. THE
NAM IS A LITTLE LESS AGRESSIVE WITH THE POSITION BUT GFS AND ECMWF
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING OVER
WEST TEXAS BY SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD SQUASH ALL CONVECTION AS THE
ATMOSPHERE DRIES AND INSTABILITY WANES.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. THERE
MAY BE A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE UPPER HIGH BY THURSDAY AS
DISTURBANCES RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT ANY CONVECTION ABLE TO NAVIGATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS/SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 90S FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BUT AGAIN BACKED DOWN GUIDANCE HIGHS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN ABUNDANT SOIL MOISTURE AND
STANDING WATER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ABSORB SOME HEAT VIA
EVAPORATION...FOR A WHILE AT LEAST. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL. JAMES

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

93
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 9, 5:58 PM CST, 1 hour 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
658 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

TXZ021>044-110000-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
658 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SOUTH
PLAINS AND PANHANDLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH AND HAIL AROUND
GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.

The radar

The Cannon AFB radar (KFDX), 96 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:58 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Parmer

When
July 9, 7:56 PM CST
Where
Parmer County, 0.9 mi NE of Lazbuddie
Measured
51 kt (59 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
34.390, -102.610

Measured by a KVII-TV schoolnet anemometer at the Lazbuddie High School.

Flood, Cochran

When
July 9, 9:15 PM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where
Cochran County, 4.25 mi ESE of Bledsoe to 10.55 mi ESE of Lehman
Cause
Heavy Rain
Property damage
$100,000
Crop damage
$500,000
Reported by
Department of Highways
Coordinates
33.594, -102.953

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind
Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Flood
Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 577625, 577626.