A strong front brought high winds to parts of northern California.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
A strong front brought high winds to parts of northern California.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 14, 8:00 PM PST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
800 PM PST SAT NOV 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...15/00Z NAM IN. 15/00Z GFS IN THROUGH 72HR.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING OFFSHORE WILL PUSH A WET AND WINDY
FRONT ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY A
STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF SEVERAL SURFACE LOWS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE TRENDING HIGHER WITH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF THE LOWS...NOW AROUND 997-998 MB...WHICH INDICATES THE STORM
WILL NOT BE QUITE AS SEVERE AS IT LOOKED TO BE 24 HOURS AGO. IT
WILL STILL BE A STRONG ONE THOUGH. THIS STORM TRACK REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL JET. GALE/STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE COAST...MOSTLY FROM AROUND PORT ORFORD SOUTH. WIND GENERATED
WAVES WILL COMBINE WITH HEAVY NORTHWEST SWELL TO CREATE HAZARDOUS
SURF ALONG THE COAST...SO HIGH SURF WARNINGS/ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT. WAVES MAY WASH OVER JETTIES AND PERHAPS EVEN ONTO THE
DOCKS NEAR PORT ORFORD.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG INLAND AS WELL. HIGH WIND WARNINGS/WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE SHASTA VALLEY AND THE EAST SIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS 850MB WINDS PEAK AT 55-65 KT ALONG
THE COAST AND 700 MB WINDS PEAK AT 45-55 KT INLAND. SOME GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTH END OF THE
ROGUE VALLEY NEAR ASHLAND.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...AMOUNTS WILL BE SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT
EXTREME...SO ANY FLOODING THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE LOCALIZED. AMOUNTS
WILL BE FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR A MID-AUTUMN STORM...1.00-2.00 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE COAST RANGE. IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR
THE PRECIPITATION TO ARRIVE INLAND SINCE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. IT MAY NOT RAIN IN MEDFORD
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. INLAND WEST SIDE
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY SEE 0.25-0.50 OF AN INCH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS WILL GET 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES. THE EAST
SIDE WILL GET 0.25 INCHES OR LESS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP SHARPLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE...FROM AROUND 7000 FEET DOWN TO 3000 FT
SUNDAY MORNING. A LOT OF MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
MOVE IN SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SHORT WAVES
DIVING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. BEAR CAMP ROAD MAY
SEE AS MUCH AS 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN PLACES BY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
SOME STRONGER SHOWERS...SNOW LEVELS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 2500 FEET.
THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE COAST INTO SUNDAY EVENING....WITH SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
DECLINE IN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING...THEN THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ONSHORE MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE TRENDING UP WITH THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THIS SYSTEM...AND THIS LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
FAIRLY WET SYSTEM.
LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AFD...TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS PART OF THE FORECAST GENERALLY FEATURES AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN A DRYING TREND
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
ON TUESDAY A WARM FRONT WILL BRING OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE CASCADES...WITH THE CHANCE OF RAIN
CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW
DAYS...THE EC IS WETTER THAN THAN THE GFS THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE.
MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT...WITH SNOW LEVELS 7000 FEET AND HIGHER BUT DROPPING SHARPLY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE COLD AND DRY AIR MASS FILTERS IN PER THE
GFS. THE EC DRIES THINGS OUT TOO BUT KEEPS THE AIR MASS WARMER AS IT
MAINTAINS RATHER ZONAL FLOW.
AFTER THURSDAY...THE GFS BASICALLY SHOWS A MERIDIONAL PATTERN AND
DRY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THE FORECAST AREA
ON THE WESTERN SIDE A LARGE TROUGH THAT COVERS THE WESTERN AND
MIDDLE PARTS OF THE CONUS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE EC AND GFS ENSEMBLES
ARE HAVING A HARD TIME AGREEING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF OF
ALASKA HEIGHT PATTERN...WHICH IN TURN WILL DETERMINE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER OUR AREA. THIS INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER WE WILL ACTUALLY SEE A COLD AND DRY PERIOD PER THE GFS OR
POTENTIAL FOR SOME WETTER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND PER THE EC.
SO...EVEN THOUGH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WEEK...WE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE LONGER TERM PATTERN PER ENSEMBLE DATA.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 15/00Z TAF CYCLE... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO WEST OR NORTHWEST...AND A SHARP DROP IN
FREEZING LEVELS...IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BECOME COMMON THIS
EVENING THEN CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION.
SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. -BPN/SK
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 200 PM PST SATURDAY 14 NOV 2015...SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN STORM FORCE
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE 20 FEET ARE LIKELY JUST AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THE RESULT OF
A COASTAL JET, FORMING ALONG A NARROW BAND OUT TO 25 NM FROM SHORE.
THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN VERY CHAOTIC SEAS. SEAS
WILL REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF GALES AND HAZARDOUS SEAS LIKELY AS A SECOND FRONT ARRIVES
MONDAY EVENING. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, SO HAVE REFLECTED THIS IN THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ021-022.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ030-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR ORZ029.
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ085.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR CAZ081.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY
FOR PZZ350-356.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM PST SUNDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM PST MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356-370-376.
15/15/15The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The TT109 RAWS unit reported a gust to 58 mph at 14/2220 PST and a gust to 62 mph at 14/2320 PST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in California, November 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 602036.