An upper level trough remained over the Mid-South during the time period of July 6th to July 7th, 2015. As a result, showers and thunderstorms developed in association with the trough.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
An upper level trough remained over the Mid-South during the time period of July 6th to July 7th, 2015. As a result, showers and thunderstorms developed in association with the trough. Some storms became severe producing damaging winds and flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 8:00 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 900 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 .UPDATE... A PERSISTENT BUT RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST THROUGH THIS AREA. THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 1.74 INCHES. SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO MENTION THIS THREAT. ALSO...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS TO INCREASE THE POPS THROUGH THIS AREA...AND ADJUSTED THE QPF GRIDS FOR THIS EVENING. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA OF CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. JCL && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/ WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM OF THE AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY INTO THIS EVENING AS THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. A SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA AND HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST TUESDAY MORNING WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE COMING TO AN END. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR NORTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH TO THE VICINITY OF OUR NORTHERN CWA BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. AS MLCAPES EXCEED 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGES BETWEEN 20-30 KTS...THERE MAY BE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO DEVELOP. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. THERE MAY BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TEND TO MOVE REPEATEDLY OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHOULD LOWER POPS AREAWIDE AND CONFINE CHANCES FOR STORMS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THESE STORM CHANCES SHOULD CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS THESE AREAS. FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND....UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS STRONG OVER THE AREA WITH A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL MID JULY SUMMER WEATHER. SEASONABLY HOT AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES HELPING TO INCREASE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. JLH && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE INTO THE KTUP AREA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10 KNOTS. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. MO...NONE. MS...NONE. TN...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN 850 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115- MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-080400- ALCORN-BENTON MS-BENTON TN-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY- COAHOMA-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR- DUNKLIN-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD- HENDERSON-HENRY-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE- LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION- PANOLA-PEMISCOT-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN- RANDOLPH-SHELBY-ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON- TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA- 850 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS... THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INCLUDING AROUND JONESBORO AND PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. JCL
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:16 UTC.
2 flash flood, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight line winds knocked down several large trees and power lines in Bay.
Heavy rain produced flash flooding across much of Northern Craighead County. Several roads were flooded near Herndon, Bono and in Northern Jonesboro.
Heavy rain produced flash flooding near the Carriage Hills subdivision, south of Paragould. Several streets and yards were flooded with water nearing doors to a few homes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, July 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 596514, 596521, 596522.