Winter Weather in Arkansas, February 23, 2015

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
501 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT THIS HR AT ALL SITES...THOUGH THIS
WILL NOT LAST THROUGH THE DAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING ANOTHER AREA OF WINTRY
PRECIP TO THE STATE. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA WHERE MOSTLY
SNOW IS EXPECTED. EXPECT SLEET AT THE FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
STATE...OCCASIONALLY MIXING WITH SNOW. MAYBE SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE SEEN AT THE NORTHERN SITES...BUT ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE THIS
EVENING...WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...SOME
LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

FIRST WAVE OF OUR ONE TWO PUNCH HAS EXITED THE REGION LEAVING UP
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
EVEN THE SOUTH SAW A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO FREEZING RAIN BEFORE THE
PRECIP MOVED OUT. SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS BY MID MORNING AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST LEANED IN THE DIRECTION OF THE ECMWF WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
GOOD MIDDLE OF THE ROAD APPROACH VERSUS THE NAM WHICH IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE AND THE GFS WHICH IS NOT AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH.

DIFFERENCE WITH THIS WAVE VERSUS THE LAST WAVE IS THE TEMPERATURE.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOSED INTO THE STATE AND TEMPERATURES ARE
NOT EVEN EXPECTED TO REACH 30 DEGREES TODAY OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
AS SUCH...THE COLUMN IS MORE THAN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT JUST SNOW
WITH THIS WAVE. THE LONE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A LINE FROM GURDON TO DUMAS WHERE MOSTLY SLEET WILL BE SEEN...WITH
SOME SNOW MIXING IN OCCASIONALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS SUCH...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE FORTH COMING TO THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES OTHER THAN TO CLEAN UP THE WORDING AND TWEAK AS
NEEDED.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE STATE BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD FURTHER EAST BY AROUND THE
NOON HOUR. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS
WILL BE WITHIN AN AREA FROM RUSSELLVILLE...TO LITTLE ROCK...TO PINE
BLUFF...TO ARKADELPHIA. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN AN AREA FROM DANVILLE...TO HOT SPRINGS...TO GLENWOOD
AND MENA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN IN THE TERRAIN OF THE
OUACHITA MOUNTAINS IN THIS REGION OF THE STATE...WHERE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING TWO INCHES...INCLUDING SLEET
ACCUMULATION.

AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO
BATESVILLE WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION.

OVERALL ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS MOST OF THE EASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION REMAINS IN A BROAD AND COLD CYCLONIC FLOW.
CLOSED UPPER NEAR LAKE TAHOE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP
INTO A TROUGH AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH MOISTURE ON EACH RUN AND WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL
WITH SOME MORE WINTER WEATHER OVER THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY. NEITHER WAVE
APPEARS TO BE SIGNIFICANT BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP
SOMEWHERE IN THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT OUR AVERAGE HIGH SHOULD BE HOVERING AROUND 60
DEGREES. NEEDLESS TO SAY WE WILL NOT EVEN APPROACH THAT DURING THE
PERIOD AND WILL NOT FOR AS LONG AS THIS PATTERN HOLDS.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

COLD AND BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AT THE START OF THE
LONG TERM...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE STATE
FROM THE WEST ON FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
LIFT TO SUPPORT SOME INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES...IN THE FORM OF
GENERALLY SNOW AND A MIX WITH RAIN FRI AND FRI NIGHT. WILL ONLY
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW AS MED RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH THE ECMWF THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME. THIS MORE AGGRESSIVE TREND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO THE SW OVER THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...MOISTURE LEVELS DO INCREASE FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH THE GFS DOES HOLD OFF ON THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE
RETURN UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEKEND.

BOTH MODEL SOLUTIONS THEN AGREE REASONABLY WELL BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST REGARDING MOISTURE LEVELS...THOUGH DETAILS ARE REMAINING
UNCERTAIN AS ONE WOULD EXPECT 7 DAYS OUT. KEEP POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW END CHANCE FOR SAT GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES...THEN SHOULD START
SEEING INCREASING POPS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...NOT WANTING
TO INCREASE POPS FOR SUN TOO MUCH YET AS TIMING DIFFERENCES AND
CHANGES IN STORM TRACK ARE VERY POSSIBLE A WEEK OUT. HOWEVER...DO
THINK THE LATE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE LIQUID FORM
REGARDING PRECIP TYPES THIS TIME AROUND...AS A RESULT OF THE
INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT AND SRLY FLOW NEAR THE SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     25  19  40  26 /  20  30  10  10
CAMDEN AR         29  23  40  30 /  70  50  20  10
HARRISON AR       24  18  39  24 /  20  30  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    29  21  40  27 /  60  30  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  28  21  40  28 /  50  30  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     28  22  38  30 /  60  50  20  10
MOUNT IDA AR      28  20  40  26 /  70  30  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  25  19  40  24 /  20  30  10  10
NEWPORT AR        24  18  39  26 /  20  20  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     27  21  40  29 /  60  40  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   29  22  41  25 /  50  30  10  10
SEARCY AR         26  19  40  26 /  40  30  10  10
STUTTGART AR      26  20  39  27 /  50  30  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-
DREW-FAULKNER-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-
LOGAN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...62

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
306 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-241100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
306 AM CST MON FEB 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SOME SLICK ROADWAYS REMAIN THIS MORNING FROM THE SUNDAY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST SLEET
AND SNOW ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING...ANY REMAINING WATER ON ROADWAYS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA COULD ALSO
FREEZE...CREATING SOME PATCHY SLICK SPOTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MOST
AREAS...WITH MAYBE SOME AREAS ACROSS THE SOUTH WARMING TO AROUND 30.
WITH THE COLD AIR IN PLACE...A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME MORE
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

SNOWFALL WILL BEGIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF
THE STATE BY MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD FURTHER EAST BY AROUND THE
NOON HOUR. BY THIS TIME...MOST OF THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
STATE WILL BE SEEING SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION. UNLIKE THE STORM
SYSTEM ON SUNDAY...MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL WITH TODAYS EVENT.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM GURDON TO
DUMAS WHERE MOSTLY SLEET WILL BE SEEN...WITH SOME SNOW MIXING IN
OCCASIONALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE
WITHIN AN AREA FROM RUSSELLVILLE...TO LITTLE ROCK...TO PINE
BLUFF...TO ARKADELPHIA. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN AN AREA FROM DANVILLE...TO HOT SPRINGS...TO
GLENWOOD AND MENA. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN IN THE TERRAIN
OF THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS IN THIS REGION OF THE STATE...WHERE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL SEE AROUND AN INCH...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEARING TWO INCHES...INCLUDING SLEET
ACCUMULATION.

AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES...ESPECIALLY AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM JASPER TO
BATESVILLE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...THOUGH AREAS JUST SOUTH
OF THIS LINE MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW.

EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

MORE WEAK STORM SYSTEMS WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE. ONE SYSTEM WILL PASS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE STATE ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SOME MOISTURE WILL LIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE STATE. ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MOISTURE LIFTS FAR ENOUGH NORTH. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE.

ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE STATE ON THURSDAY...BRINGING
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO SEE JUST RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY
DOES EXIST FOR THE WEEKEND HOWEVER...SO REFER TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS IN THE COMING DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER...REPORTS OF SNOW
AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE WELCOME.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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