Modest southwest flow prevailed across southeast Arizona as a trough deepened across the western states. Isolated thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours, with sub-severe outflow winds causing damage in Tucson.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.
Modest southwest flow prevailed across southeast Arizona as a trough deepened across the western states. Isolated thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours, with sub-severe outflow winds causing damage in Tucson.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 14, 9:55 AM MST, 5 hours 40 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 955 AM MST MON SEP 14 2015 .SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR TODAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEK. && .DISCUSSION...SUNNY SKIES TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME WITH THE BULK OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...AND THESE TEMPS WERE NEARLY UNCHANGED VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. SURFACE TEMPS VALID 16Z WERE 2-8 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS THIS TIME SUN. 14/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.36 INCHES WAS AN INCREASE OF 0.14 INCH VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. HAVE NOTED THAT THE PROFILE WAS MARKEDLY DRIER ABOVE 500 MB VERSUS THE 13/12Z KTWC SOUNDING. THIS DRIER REGIME ALOFT WAS QUITE EVIDENT VIA WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. 14/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS DEPICTED A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS PLAINS WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH JUST WEST OF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SWLY/WLY FLOW PREVAILED OVER SE ARIZONA. 14/12Z NAM12 AND 14/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING THE BEST CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO OCCUR FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA EAST AND SOUTH LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM SUGGESTS THAT INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/ TSTMS MAY OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF THE TUCSON METRO AREA BY NOON... WITH OTHER SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. SUBSEQUENT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. AT ANY RATE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING. THE LEAST FAVORED AREA FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT FROM TUCSON EWD...AND PRECIP- FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON AND EARLY TUE EVENING. THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLY DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN WED AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS SHUNTED WELL EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WED HAVE OPTED FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS FAR SERN SECTIONS WED...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INTO SAT MORNING. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS RETURNS TO FAR ERN SECTIONS SAT AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS SUN...THEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR TUE-WED. SLIGHTLY WARMER HIGH TEMPS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THUR- SAT. && .AVIATION...VALID THRU 15/18Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SHRA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM KTUS VICINITY EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. OTHERWISE... CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-15K FT AGL. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SWLY 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS AT OTHER TIMES. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS. && .FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. BREEZY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 45 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:32 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorm winds downed a large dead tree branch, which fell on top of a residence near Speedway Blvd and Swan Rd, causing roof damage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 602399.