Arizona, 2015

Heavy Snow in Arizona, May 15, 2015

May 15, 2015 · NWS FGZ · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A late season cold front brought snow to the high country of northern Arizona. Anywhere from 3 to 9 inches of snow fell at elevations above 6000 feet from the North Rim of The Grand Canyon to Flagstaff to Heber to White Mountains.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.

A late season cold front brought snow to the high country of northern Arizona. Anywhere from 3 to 9 inches of snow fell at elevations above 6000 feet from the North Rim of The Grand Canyon to Flagstaff to Heber to White Mountains. Heavy snow criteria for 24 hours is 6 inches between 5000 and 7000 feet, 8 inches between 7000 feet and 8500 feet and over 12 inches over 8500 feet.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 14, 9:45 PM MST, 5 hours 15 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 14, 9:45 PM MST, 5 hours 15 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 PM MST THU MAY 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. AREAS ABOVE 6500 FEET COULD SEE
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. AFTER A BREAK SUNDAY...ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...THE FIRST OF TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS TO AFFECT
THE STATE IS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL ROTATE UP
INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA OVERNIGHT. LIFT AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS
LOW WILL AFFECT CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA OVERNIGHT, WITH A GOOD
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY MAINLY NW OF
FLAGSTAFF TOWARD THE GRAND CANYON. UPDATES TO REFLECT HIGHER
OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES WERE SENT EARLIER. THE MAIN TROUGH AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

.PREV DISCUSSION...(314 PM MST)...
STRONG WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST HAS LED TO SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM FAR NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH WHERE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT EXISTS. FROM NOW
INTO THIS EVENING...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE FROM YAVAPAI
COUNTY THROUGH WESTERN COCONINO COUNTY...THEN ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
ARIZONA. THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AFTER
SUNSET.

THE GREATEST PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS THE GREATEST FORECAST
PRECIP AMOUNTS STRETCH FROM MIDDAY FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH
APPROACHES NORTHERN ARIZONA. THIS DISTURBANCE IS ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE ADVECTION EXCEEDING THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR MAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25"-0.75" RANGE WILL BE COMMON...WITH 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE THE 6500 FOOT LEVEL ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOST NOTABLY
NEAR THE AZ/UT STATE LINE. MOISTURE VALUES ARE LOWER AND TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO STAY RELATIVELY WARM WITH THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SNOW LEVELS CURRENTLY IN THE 9000-9500 FOOT RANGE.

DRY WEATHER AND NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FRIDAY AFTER 18Z NUMEROUS
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS OVER
MOUNTAIN REGIONS DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITIES
IN SNOW SHOWERS. SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WELL BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WARMING
TEMPERATURES...AND LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC......JJ/AT
AVIATION...BOHLIN
FIRE WEATHER...TM

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Snow, Western Mogollon Rim

When
May 15, 3:00 AM MST to 9:00 PM MST
Where
Western Mogollon Rim forecast zone
Reported by
Official NWS Observations
Coordinates
35.839, -111.770 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A late season snow storm dropped 9.2 inches at the NWS office in Bellemont (7152 feet MSL). Nine inches of snow also fell above 8500 feet in Hart Prairie.

What these are

Heavy Snow
Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, May 2015

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 581677.