A warm front lifting northward through central Illinois triggered scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon of May 15th. A few of the storms produced 60 mph wind gusts and minor wind damage.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ILX wrote it up.
A warm front lifting northward through central Illinois triggered scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon of May 15th. A few of the storms produced 60 mph wind gusts and minor wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lincoln, IL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 1:54 PM CST, 51 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 254 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS MISSOURI THE LAST FEW HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST...WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA. NOT MUCH HOLDING THESE STORMS BACK AS SURFACE BASED CAPE'S ARE OVER 2500 J/KG...BUT VERY LITTLE WIND SHEAR ALOFT IS RESULTING IN A MORE PULSE-TYPE STORM ENVIRONMENT. HRRR MODEL LIFTS THE BULK OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY 8- 9 PM. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND THAT GETS A BIT MORE DISJOINTED...AS SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS PRETTY MUCH DRY THINGS OUT ALTHOUGH THE HRRR TRIES TO BRING ANOTHER LOBE THROUGH LATE EVENING. HAVE LARGELY GONE WITH 30-40% POP'S THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST AREAS EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER VALUES EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA WITH THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS THE STORMS WILL CAUSE SOME TEMPORARY COOLDOWNS...BUT OVERALL LOWS IN THE MID 60S REQUIRED LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. && .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 - KCHI 150802 WRKAFD MORNING UPPER AIR AND MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY SHOWS CLOSED UPPER LOW IN ROCKIES WITH A MAIN VORT LOBE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, ADVECTIVING DEEP MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD FROM TX INTO THE CENTRAL MIDWEST. SURFACE DATA SHOWS VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER IL REGION, WITH 2500 CAPE, DEW POINTS APPROACHING 70 AND TEMPS IN LOWER 80S. WITH THE PROGGED CONTINUING OF THE MOISTURE FETCH NORTHWARD TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF STATE SATURDAY, THERE WILL BE LITTLE CHANGE IN RESULT FOR THE START OF WEEKEND. EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS TONIGHT INTO DAY SATURDAY, BUT WILL LIMITED SHEAR AVAILABLE, SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE ON THE LOCALLIZED SCALE. BY SUNDAY THOUGH, PATTERN CHANGES AS THE UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY IT REACHES THE DAKOTAS AND ANOTHER WAVE ROTATES EAST AROUND THE LOW INTO THE PLAINS. THIS WILL GET THE FRONT MOVING EAST, PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE IL REGION ON SUNDAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN MOISTURE, THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE. AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STRENGTH OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE AREA STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, BUT A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STILL IS SUPPORTABLE. DRYING SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER WAVE MOVES EAST WILL CLEAR PCPN CHANCES FOR MONDAY. COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND WILL SOME WEAK RIDGING ALOFT, QUITE WEATHER IS RULE EARLY IN THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES OUT OF STILL STAGNATE UPPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ROCKES, WHICH WILL BRING CHANCE OF PCPN WED TO THURS, BUT WITH DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR IN AREA, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE THE RESULT. && .AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD AS CLEAR SLOT IN THE KSPI-KCMI CORRIDOR BEGAN SEEING DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS. AM EXPECTING THIS TO LIFT UPWARD ABOVE 3000 FEET EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MORE PERSISTENT LOWER CEILINGS WHICH HAD PLAGUED KPIA MOST OF THE MORNING ARE FINALLY LIFTING UPWARD THOUGH. CONVECTION ACROSS MISSOURI IS TRACKING NORTHEAST AND IS PROJECTED TO START AFFECTING KSPI-KDEC AROUND 20-21Z AND KPIA/KBMI TOWARD 23Z. HAVE ADDED VCTS AT ALL SITES AND WILL MONITOR FOR AMENDING TO ADD PREVAILING/TEMPO GROUPS OF LOWER CONDITIONS AS THE STORMS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. SEVERAL OF THE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS LIFT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE CENTRAL ILLINOIS TAF SITES BY MID EVENING OR SO. HAVE ADDED SOME MORE MVFR CEILINGS OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT BASED ON NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS. THESE SHOULD LIFT BY MID MORNING SATURDAY. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...GEELHART LONG TERM...GOETSCH AVIATION...GEELHART
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 ILZ027>031-036>038-161100- FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-STARK-TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WITH LESSER CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. ILZ040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-161100- CASS-CHAMPAIGN-CHRISTIAN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND- DE WITT-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-LOGAN-MACON-MASON- MENARD-MORGAN-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT- SHELBY-VERMILION- 306 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL...WIDESPREAD SEVERE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WE WILL SEE DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. GEELHART
The Lincoln radar (KILX), 65 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:47 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Multiple power poles were blown down east of Pawnee.
A large tree limb was blown onto a power line.
A power pole was snapped and the roof of an outbuilding was torn off.
Numerous trees were blown down, causing a power outage in Palestine.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Illinois in 2015Every state in 2015This day in weather historyWarnings in Illinois, May 2015
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 578625, 578627, 578629, 578631.